Contributions published at Financial Economics (Thorsten Hens)

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Der Finanzwissenschafter und Experte für Behavioral Finance Thorsten Hens wird Fintech-Verwaltungsrat. Die Zuger Jungfirma steht kurz vor dem Start ihres Vorzeigeprodukts.

Schweizer Pensionskassen investieren unter Anlagedrck wie verrückt in Immobilien, weil diese als sicher und rentabel gelten. Das verteuert den Wohnraum. In der Schweiz, Deutschland und Österreich wehren sich verzweifelte Einwohner mit Volksbegehren.

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It has become well-known by psychologists, economists, and people in general, that over- confidence is a psychological trait that has various effects on human beings and their behavior in all domains and sectors. The focus of this thesis lies on a somewhat neglected topic in the research area of overconfidence, namely the ways of measurement of the so-called overcon- fidence bias, which are further investigated, and the respective results compared. In the first part of this work, a definition of overconfi-dence and its effects will be provided. Next, some of the most relevant forms of overconfidence are listed. Then, a comparison between the measurement methods that use proxies as a base for their measurement of overconfidence is provided. In the third part of this thesis, the ways by which the inborn level of overconfidence is measured are listed. The two main methods are: measuring overconfidence using the interval produc-tion task and measuring overconfidence through choice questions. All measurement methods prove the existence of overconfidence. However, a different level of overconfidence is reached by the different measurement methods. Furthermore, different groups of investors tend to be more overconfident than others. Individual investors tend to be more overconfident than institutional investors and professional CEOs tend to be less overconfident than founder CEOs. In the last part of the thesis at hand, regularly published criticism on some of the most important methods like the choice question method and the interval production task, are mentioned.

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Passiv investieren beeinflusst in verschiedener Hinsicht den Finanzmarkt. Ein Beispiel ist die Liquidität. Passiv bedeutet weniger Handels- aktivität. Ein Ausgleichsmechanismus geht verloren.

Intrigued by the impact of restrictive government policies on home prices in China, and in particular, by questions such as how persistently did effects unfold, how uniquely did cities react, and how strongly did policies strike, we adopted the event study methodology to capture evolvement of the policies’ effects over time, where forecasts of the normal price growth rates after any policy shock were obtained through the time series model AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). We discovered that, however evidently negative for most, the average effect of an announcement of restrictive policies varied across our sample cities. With newly elected 1st-tier cities catching up swiftly with commonly recognized ones, it was no surprise to find similar policies’ effects for the 2 city groups. Moreover, rankings of effectiveness by policy types reflected differences in market composition (or buyer profile) of the 2 city groups, while cross-sectional regressions implied the importance in joint application of the various types of policies. We concluded with policy recommendations that are more sustainable and long-term oriented.