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Contribution Details
| Type | Master's Thesis |
| Scope | Discipline-based scholarship |
| Title | The Impact of Restrictive Government Policies on Home Prices in China |
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| Institution | University of Zurich |
| Faculty | Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics |
| Number of Pages | 70 |
| Date | 2019 |
| Abstract Text | Intrigued by the impact of restrictive government policies on home prices in China, and in particular, by questions such as how persistently did effects unfold, how uniquely did cities react, and how strongly did policies strike, we adopted the event study methodology to capture evolvement of the policies’ effects over time, where forecasts of the normal price growth rates after any policy shock were obtained through the time series model AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). We discovered that, however evidently negative for most, the average effect of an announcement of restrictive policies varied across our sample cities. With newly elected 1st-tier cities catching up swiftly with commonly recognized ones, it was no surprise to find similar policies’ effects for the 2 city groups. Moreover, rankings of effectiveness by policy types reflected differences in market composition (or buyer profile) of the 2 city groups, while cross-sectional regressions implied the importance in joint application of the various types of policies. We concluded with policy recommendations that are more sustainable and long-term oriented. |
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