Edina Hrustanovic, How was the stock price of the US banks affected after the first increase of the interest rate in March 2022?, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Bachelor's Thesis)
This thesis examines the impact of the interest rate increase on March 16th, 2022 on banks using a
data set of 287 listed US banks. The impact is measured by using abnormal returns as a proxy. For
the analysis, I set up a regression equation with the following five independent variables: duration
gap, ZIP code, total assets, Tobin’s q, and beta. I used the abnormal return for a period of 24 hours
as the dependent variable. The needed data was collected from the Thomson Reuters Datastream
Database, the SEC filings, and the annual reports of the banks. On average, the interest rate increase had a negative impact on the stock price. Moreover, the results show that the estimated
coefficients for the duration gap, total assets, and beta are statistically significant. The duration
gap has a positive estimated coefficient, which indicates that banks with a higher duration gap
have a relatively larger abnormal return in times of interest rate increases. The estimated coefficient of total assets and beta is negative. This indicates that banks with more total assets and a
higher beta experience a more negative abnormal return when the interest rate increases. The ZIP
codes and Tobin’s q have insignificant estimated coefficients. This means that these variables did
not have any impact on the abnormal return in this period. This study contributes to various papers,
such as those that examine the determinants of the stock price and the relationship between interest
rate changes and the change in the stock price. |
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Sejla Jakupovic, Analyse der Konkurswahrscheinlichkeit der Credit Suisse anhand eines Vergleichs mit Lehman Brothers, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Bachelor's Thesis)
Kann man anhand einer Analyse von Lehman Brothers das Schicksal der Credit Suisse
voraussagen? Um diese Frage zu beantworten, werden die beiden Banken in dieser Arbeit
erst einzeln analysiert und anschliessend verglichen. Dafür werden die Bereiche
Geschäftsfelder, Weltwirtschaft, Regulierungsstandards und Gründe, warum man Lehman
scheitern liess, betrachtet. Zusätzliches werden noch die Aktienkurse und die Bilanzen der
beiden Banken analysiert und einander gegenübergestellt. Mittels des Vergleichs soll eine
Aussage getroffen werden, ob sich die beiden Banken ähnlich genug sind, als dass durch das
Scheitern der einen Bank auch das Scheitern der anderen vorhergesagt werden kann. Meine
Untersuchungen zeigen, dass sich die zwei Banken nur im Punkt Regulierungsstandards
gleichen. In allen anderen Bereichen findet man deutliche Unterschiede und nur wenige
Gemeinsamkeiten. Auch die Gründe, warum man Lehman scheitern liess, lassen sich nicht
auf die Credit Suisse übertragen. Dadurch lässt sich der Schluss ziehen, dass man nicht durch
das Schicksal von Lehman Brothers jenes der Credit Suisse vorhersagen kann. Diese Arbeit
bringt insoweit einen neuen Beitrag zur Forschung, als dass es sich bei der Credit Suisse um
ein sehr aktuelles Thema handelt und somit zu heutigem Stand auch keine wissenschaftliche
Arbeit existiert, welche diese zwei Banken in dieser Art und Weise direkt gegenüberstellt. |
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Bayu Suarjana, Depictions Of Intelligent Technologies in Video Games and Ist Correlations to AI Technological Acceptance Among the Public, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Master's Thesis)
This study examined the portrayal of artificial intelligence (AI) in video games and explored the potential correlation between video game exposure and individuals’ level of technological acceptance of AI virtual assistants. A Qualitative Content Analysis (QCA) of several popular video games is conducted to analyze their depiction of AI characters, their roles, and interactions within game narratives. Additionally, this study used a previously validated survey instrument based on the Technological Acceptance Model (TAM) to assess how certain video game playing habits and trust of AI virtual assistants are correlated. We found that portrayal of AI characters in the games analyzed show that AI is often portrayed as humanized and more advanced than its real-world counterpart, and that it is often hostile to humans. The analysis of the survey results found that there is a moderate positive correlation between playing video games featuring AI and willingness to use AI virtual assistant technologies. The findings of this study will contribute to the growing field of AI portrayals in popular media and provide insights into the influence of video games on individuals’ perceptions and acceptance of AI technology. |
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Louis Huber, Analysis of the portrayal of AI in children’s media and comparison with current AI applications, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Bachelor's Thesis)
Since artificial intelligence (AI) has already penetrated large parts of our daily lives and is likely to become even more prominent in the future, it is not surprising that AIs are also increasingly used in movies, books, series, video games, and so on. This work focuses specifically on media for children because, on the one hand, they can be influenced by the media, and on the other hand, there is little known about the depiction of AIs in this media. Still, at the same time, there is a chance to give children a differentiated and critical image of AIs at an early age. For this purpose, a total of 13 media were analyzed using a framework created and mappings were assembled that also included currently used AIs from the industry in order to compare them with each other. Through this analysis, the following categories of AI characters in children's media could be identified: "Side-Kick", "Big Bad Evil", "Virtual Assistant" and "Alternative Human". |
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Dace Dreimane, Gamification and Engagement of Marginalized Users on the Coding Q&A Platform Stack Overflow, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Master's Thesis)
This study examines how different types of users experience and perceive gamification on Stack Overflow. In addition, the game balance and users’ opinions on the level of challenging tasks for members of different skill sets are explored. The study data were obtained using a mixed method approach that combined quantitative and qualitative methods. Quantitative data were collected through a survey, and qualitative data were obtained by interviewing 10 Stack Overflow users. The results suggest that guidelines that are applied in Stack Overflow reduce the need for competence and autonomy, and as a result, discourage expert and novice users from contributing to Stack Overflow. Furthermore, the Stack Overflows’ reward system awards trendy questions over complicated and niche questions. The results indicate that novice users may feel that they cannot contribute to the platform. In addition, they struggle with finding adequately challenging tasks to solve, resulting in them being discouraged from contributing. |
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Jonathan Contreras Urzua, Location-based Open Source Intelligence to Infer Information in LoRa Networks, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Bachelor's Thesis)
This thesis introduces and evaluates a novel platform that uses Open-source intelligence (OSINT) to identify a primary subject and an associated event using publicly accessible data. As a starting point, the platform utilizes LoRa (Long Range) datasets. This novel tool will make use of web scraping techniques, the power of OpenAI's large language model GPT-3.5, and a custom matching score algorithm. The objective is to collect a comprehensive image of the primary subject and infer potential participants of the specific location and time covered by the LoRa dataset. Evaluating our approach demonstrates its effectiveness in identifying 14 out of 16 actual participants, showcasing its ability to create a relevant dataset of potential participants. Looking at the accuracy, the model manages to achieve a precision score of 0.75, while the recall score of 0.46 indicates some true positives were not captured. The results reflect the difficulty in identifying participants in a private event with a limited public presence. Despite the challenging scenario, this tool represents an innovative approach to merging OSINT techniques with LoRa data. Future work will focus on enhancing the tool's robustness, expanding its coverage to additional social media platforms, improving adaptability across diverse scenarios, and exploring advanced language models. |
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Ivo Merki, Tokenisation the new securitisation?, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Master's Thesis)
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Malika Ochchaeva, Gender Effects in Sustainability Awareness in the Finance Industry, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Master's Thesis)
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Franciele Sampaio dos Santos Safra, Cheap talk in the MSCI World Index: Portfolio and constituents’ alignment with net-zero-emission goals using ClimateBERT, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Master's Thesis)
This thesis examines the alignment of the MSCI World Index and its constituents with net-zero emissions
using the Cheap Talk Index (CTI) and Sentiment Index (OppRisk), derived from ClimateBert,
and net-zero-emission metrics. Findings reveal that companies with low CTI and negative OppRisk
have emission reduction targets that are out of line with NZE goals, while those with high CTI
struggle to achieve their targets. The proposed classification framework categorizes most companies
analyzed as Unambitious or Greenwashing. The study emphasizes the importance of aligning targets
with recognized net-zero pathways, such as those recommended by the IPCC or IEA. |
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Alexander Aufschnaiter, Analyse der Ursachen des New Yorker Börsencrashs von 1929, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Bachelor's Thesis)
Der New Yorker Börsencrash von 1929 stellt eines der bedeutendsten Ereignisse in der amerikanischen Wirtschaftsgeschichte dar und markierte das Ende eines Jahrzehntes von Wachstum und Prosperität. Die Ursachen für den Crash sind bis heute nicht vollumfänglich geklärt. Diese Arbeit analysiert die verschiedenen Erklärungsansätze und erkennt neben weiteren Faktoren das Volumen bei Maklerdarlehen, die Entwicklung bei Margin-Anforderungen und das Handeln der Zentralbank als plausible Ursachen des Crashs. Zudem wird gezeigt, dass nicht gesichert ist, dass Aktien 1929 einer Überbewertung unterlagen. Die Ergebnisse deuten schlussendlich darauf hin, dass der Crash auf das Zusammenspiel einer Reihe von Faktoren zurückzuführen ist. |
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Donike Kastrati, Auftrag der FINMA: Die schweizerische Bankenrevision Wie fungieren die Prüfungsgesellschaften als verlängerter Arm der FINMA?, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Bachelor's Thesis)
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Leo Winiker, Güte der Risikomasse Volatilität und Maximum Drawdown, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Bachelor's Thesis)
Diese Bachelorarbeit untersucht die Güte der Risikomasse Volatilität und Maximum Drawdown. Dazu werden die Renditen der Aktien im S&P 500 auf deren Risikokennzahlen regressiert. Es kann festgestellt werden, dass die Renditen positiv mit der Volatilität korrelieren, bzw. negativ mit dem Maximum Drawdown. Aus dieser Erkenntnis heraus wurde eine Reward-Risk-Momentum-Anlagestrategie entwickelt, die Aktien mit hoher (tiefer) Volatilität bei gleichzeitig tiefem (hohem) Maximum Drawdown kauft (verkauft). Die Anlagestrategie konnte jedoch keine risikoadjustierte Überrendite über den Zeitraum von 2001 bis Ende 2021 erzielen. |
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Tobias Schultheiss, How is Firms’ Competitiveness and Workers’ Adaptability in a Technology-Driven Economy Affected by Educational Innovations? An Econometric Analysis., University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Dissertation)
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Raphael Hüsler, Momentum-Strategien zwischen unterschiedlichen Branchen in Europa, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Bachelor's Thesis)
Diese Arbeit untersucht Branchen-Momentum-Strategien im Euro STOXX 600. Dabei werden die vergangenen Gewinner- und Verlierer-Branchen gekauft bzw. verkauft. Mithilfe eines Backtesting-Verfahrens wird der Zeitraum von 2003 bis Ende 2022 analysiert, um mögliche Überrenditen zu untersuchen. Es konnte festgestellt werden, dass eine (12/1) Gewinner-Strategie eine jährliche Überrendite von bis zu 1.1920% erzielen kann, ohne überproportionale Risiken einzugehen. Gewinner-Verlierer-Strategien konnten keine Überrenditen erzielen. Obwohl alle Gewinner-Portfolios eine Überrendite aufweisen, sind diese jedoch nicht annähernd so groß wie bei vergleichbaren Strategien in anderen Studien. |
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Jason Brunner, Cash holdings and Inflation in the SMI Expanded, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Bachelor's Thesis)
This thesis investigates the effect of Inflation on corporate cash holdings
and the effect of Cash Ratio volatility on stock performance. The
dataset consists of the SMI Expanded companies and covers two
timeframes from 2020 to 2022 and 2021 to 2022. There is no detectable
relationship between Inflation levels and corporate cash holdings on either
timeframe. By introducing Delta values, a statistical relationship
was detected, but with a low overall significance. Cash Ratio volatility
and stock performance have a negative relationship over the short
timeframe from 2021 to 2022. Over the long timeframe with two significant
market disruptions no relationship could be detected in the sample. |
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Nico Reding, Deep Learning in Sustainable Finance: Developing a pretrained large language model for discovering Social-related texts in the ESG domain, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Bachelor's Thesis)
In order to evaluate the social dimension of the ESG domain in Sustainable Finance, this thesis
focuses on using deep learning models, specifically the use of a new BERT adaptation model called
SocialBERT. By creating a model that is responsive to socially relevant texts, it addresses a significant
research gap and makes it more effective at comprehending and assessing these elements. Social
aspects are now playing a major part in determining the sustainability of financial investments,
revolutionizing the financial industry with the rise of ESG investing. However, because of the richness
and diversity of texts that are socially relevant, it is often difficult to quantify these social variables.
Therefore, it is noticeable that we require sophisticated technologies to interpret and comprehend
these texts.
The SocialBERT model has been created to better understand the nuances and context of social
aspects than conventional models because it has been pre-trained on a huge corpus of texts with
a social focus. The model is assessed for its capabilities and performance, and the results show
that it is more effective than conventional models at understanding social texts. Additionally, the
thesis emphasizes the shortage of study in this field and the necessity of larger-scale investigations
to promote a better understanding and integration of social factors into sustainable finance. This
research builds on the development of deep learning techniques, the success of big language models
like BERT and GPT, and growing trends in the application of Natural Language Processing (NLP)
in finance.
In conclusion, the SocialBERT model has the potential to improve sustainable finance decisionmaking
by facilitating a more sophisticated understanding of social aspects. The results of this
thesis not only to expand the pool of knowledge in the area but also open up fresh possibilities for
investigation and advancement in the use of cutting-edge NLP technologies for ESG analysis.
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Andrin Reding, Machine Learning in Sustainable Finance: Discovering the Social in ESG through analyzing linguistic patterns in annual reports, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Bachelor's Thesis)
Discovering the Social in ESG through analyzing linguistic patterns in annual reports reveals the
ignored social component within the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) aspects. This
thesis uses natural language processing (NLP), a subset of machine learning (ML), to extract social
indicators from the ESG framework, thereby addressing the current underemphasis on social
variables.
The study helps to solve the issue of ESG data quality as a result of non-standardized and selective
reporting. This is accomplished by employing ML algorithms that are unconcerned about reporting
quality, resulting in uniform ESG data interpretation. Furthermore, the study addresses the underutilization
of ML and NLP in the social ESG context by utilizing several sophisticated models such
as SocialRoBERTa and SocialDistilRoBERTa. These models, which have been trained to understand
the social context, outperform standard models like SVM and RF.
Significantly, the study finds an inverse association between a company’s ESG risk score and the
frequency of social discourse in its annual reports, with social discourse accounting for only 2.4%
of the ESG score variation. This study emphasizes the need for additional research and a holistic
approach. The ML models’ performance plateauing after training on 50-60% of the dataset presents
an opportunity for optimum resource utilization during training for improved efficiency.
In essence, this thesis gives insights into the social elements of ESG while also increasing ESG data
recognition and broadening the effective application of ML and NLP in this domain. It emphasizes
the great prospect for a more comprehensive approach and additional investigation into the thriving
subject of sustainable finance. |
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Mirza Osmanovic, INSIDER TRADING IN THE SWISS STOCK MARKET, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Bachelor's Thesis)
This study aims to determine whether it is possible for corporate insiders to generate abnormal returns and to test if the Efficient Market Hypothesis is valid for the Swiss Stock market and to which degree it can be applied. For this purpose, an event study for insider trades between January 2020 and January 2023 was conducted. The results suggest that corporate insiders can generate statistically significant abnormal returns and therefore reject the strong form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in the Swiss stock market. |
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Lorenz Rösgen, The Role of ESG Scores in Financial Valuation: A Study of Market Capitalization-to-Equity Value Differential and ESG Score , University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Bachelor's Thesis)
This study examines the relationship between a company’s Market Capitalization-to-equity value differential (MED) and its Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) scores. Three regression models are employed to analyze the relationship, including linear, multiple linear and quantile regression. Industry and size factors are introduced as control variables. This inclusion enhances the explanatory power of the model and reveals industry specific dynamics and the impact of the company’s size. The findings reveal a significant correlation between the two variables, but also draw attention to the impact of other factors on market valuations. These findings contribute to the understanding of how ESG factors into financial markets and provide information to investors and companies aiming to make sustainable investment strategies. Further investigation is warranted to explore the additional factors influencing this relationship, such as the methodology of ESG scoring, regulatory frameworks or the potential interaction between different ESG criteria. |
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Langyan Zang, An Empirical Study of the COMFORT Option Pricing, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Master's Thesis)
Based on the data of S&P 500 index from 2008-04-01 to 2022-12-30, four different models,
namely Black-Scholes, Variance-Gamma (VG), GARCH, and COMFORT-GARCH
models are employed to make options pricing, and the pricing quality of these models are
compared. The results show that the COMFORT-GARCH model combines GARCH-type
dynamics with an SV structure, it can better capture the volatility characteristics of S&P
500 index, yields a more stable price change with a smaller magnitude. The research
confirms the applicability of COMFORT-GARCH model in the multivariate setting for
potentially large numbers of assets. |
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