Contributions in Merlin

This paper presents an application of evolutionary portfolio theory to stocks listed in the Swiss Market Index (SMI). We study numerically the long-run outcome of the competition of rebalancing rules for market shares in a stock market with actual dividends taken from firms listed in the SMI. Returns are endogenous because prices are determined by supply and demand stemming from the rebalancing rules. Our simulations show that in competition with rebalancing rules derived from Mean-Variance Optimization, Maximum Growth Theory and Behavioral Finance, the evolutionary portfolio rule discovered in Hens and Schenk-Hoppe (2001) will eventually hold total market wealth. According to this simple rule the portfolio weights should be proportional to the expected relative dividends of the assets.

Conjoint analysis is one of the most important tools to support product development, pricing and positioning decisions in management practice. For this purpose, various models have been developed. It is widely accepted that models that take consumer heterogeneity into account, outperform aggregate models in terms of hold-out tasks. The aim of our study is to investigate empirically whether predictions of choice-based conjoint models which incorporate heterogeneity can successfully be generalized to a whole market. To date no studies exist that examine the real world performance of choice-based conjoint models by use of aggregate scanner panel data. Our analysis is based on four commercial choice-based conjoint pricing studies including a total of 43 stock keeping units (SKU) and the corresponding weekly scanning data for approximately two years. An aggregate model serves as a benchmark for the performance of two models that take heterogeneity into account, hierarchical Bayes (HB) and latent class (LC). Our empirical analysis demonstrates that, in contrast to the performance using hold-out tasks, the real world performance of HB and LC is similar to the performance of the aggregate model. Our results indicate that heterogeneity cannot be generalized to a whole market and suggest that aggregate models are sufficient to predict market shares (MSs).

The literature on recommendation systems indicates that the choice of the methodology significantly influences the quality of recommendations. The impact of the amount of available data on the performance of recommendation systems has not been systematically investigated. The authors study different approaches to recommendation systems using the publicly available EachMovie data set containing ratings for movies and videos. In contrast to previous work on this data set, here a significantly larger subset is used. The effects caused by the available number of customers and movies as well as their interaction with different methods are investigated. Two commonly used collaborative filtering approaches are compared with several regression models using an experimental full factorial design. According to the findings, the number of customers significantly influences the performance of all approaches under study. For a large number of customers and movies, it is shown that simple linear regression with model selection can provide significantly better recommendations than collaborative filtering. From a managerial perspective, this gives suggestions about the selection of the model to be used depending on the amount of data available. Furthermore, the impact of an enlargement of the customer database on the quality of recommendations is shown.

We study the relation of financial development and the pace of technological advance in a dynamic agency theoretic model. A firm which is financed by outside shareholders but run by managers has the prospect of a process innovation which arrives stochastically. Adopting the innovation requires firing old management and hiring new with skills appropriate for the new technique. We show that subgame perfect equilibria in this game can be of two types. In entrenchment equilibrium once the new techniques has been announced old style management raises their dividend payout sufficiently to pre-empt the innovation. In maximum rent extraction equilibrium managers are unable or unwilling to match the impending productivity improvement and instead respond by increasing their perquisites for the remaining time of their tenure. We show that both equilibria involve several types of inefficiencies and can result in underinvestment in positive NPV projects. We discuss the role of financial innovation in reducing the inefficiencies identified.

This paper reviews how long-term relationships between firms and banks shape the structure and integration of banking markets worldwide. Bank relationships arise to span informational asymmetries that are endemic in financial markets. Firm-bank relationships not only entail specific benefits and costs for both the engaged firms and banks, but also directly affect the structure of banking markets. In particular, the sunk cost of screening and monitoring activities and the 'informational capital' collected by the incumbent banks may act as a barrier to entry. The intensity of the existing firm-bank relationships will determine the height of this barrier and shape the structure of international banking markets. For example, in Scandinavia where firms maintain few and strong relationships, foreign banks may only be able to enter successfully through mergers and acquisitions. On the other hand, Southern European firms maintain many bank relationships. Therefore, banks may consider entering Southern European banking markets through direct investment.

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