Contributions published at Informatics and Sustainability Research (Lorenz Hilty)

Technology Assessment (TA) is a field of study which systematically analyses and evaluates the potential positive and negative impacts of introducing and applying technologies, identifies areas of social conflict created by applications and gives recommendations for improving the technologies and their terms of application (ITAS, n.d.). Critical Information Infrastructure Protection (CIIP) aims to ensure that critical information infrastructures “are less vulnerable to disruptions, any impairment is short in duration and limited in scale, and services are readily restored when disruptions occur.” (Juster and Tritak, 2002, p. 12). This paper presents a TA perspective on issues of CIIP. It shows how risks emerging from critical information infrastructures can be assessed at a very early stage of technological development. The typical TA approach takes a precautionary position here, whereas the CIIP approach tends to be preventive and reactive. The main thesis of this paper is that the two fields can learn from each other: TA studies in the field of ICT can benefit from the CIIP-specific focus on vulnerabilities, and CIIP can benefit from the prospective, scenario-based TA approach which focuses on the interaction between technology and society, providing a comprehensive view of technological risk.

Informatics can make a relevant contribution to sustainable development, if the effects of ICT applications are systematically assessed from a life-cycle perspective and the results of life-cycle assessment (LCA) studies are taken into account by decision makers. The basic scheme of a product life cycle includes the three phases production, use and end of life. In the production phase, raw materials are transformed into the product. In the use phase, the product delivers the service it has been intended for. After the service life of the product ends, parts of the product may be reused or recycled. The rest leaves the system for final disposal or to be recycled in other product systems. Only if life-cycle thinking is applied both to ICT products and to products influenced by ICT applications, is it possible to decide whether a potential ICT application will have a positive or negative environmental impact on the bottom line. With life-cycle thinking, it will be possible to make substantial steps toward sustainable development. Informatics, and in particular environmental informatics as a specialized sub-discipline of it, can contribute to life-cycle thinking by supporting the modelling and data collection process in LCA studies. In addition, dynamic simulation models are useful in prospective technology assessment where LCA methodology reaches its limits.

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Governance for sustainable development requires policy coherence and Environmental Policy Integration, which are being hindered by difficulties coordinating the two separate impact assessment processes being conducted in the European Commission. One of them, the Commission-wide Impact Assessment process, looks primarily at EU-internal impacts, whereas the other one, Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) in DG Trade, looks outward to other countries and intergovernmental organizations. Ideally, the two processes should complement one another, especially as the two are set to continue being done in parallel. The paper uses a case study of the reform of the European sugar regime under a World Trade Organization ruling to demonstrate how the two impact assessment processes could better complement one another. Feedback from the experience had with existing trade agreements could then promote policy learning and inform the negotiations on new agreements. The number of new bilateral and Regional Trade Agreements is expected to continue rising, thus increasing the importance of the Commission-wide Impact Assessment process required for them. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The term ‘converging technologies’ refers to a technological vision combining nano-, bio-, and information technologies with cognitive science (NBIC technologies). The main target application field is human enhancement, i.e. the development of technological products which improve human performance. This paper presents a first attempt to assess the opportunities and risks of the NBIC development for the individual, for society and the ecological environment.

The challenge of climate change calls for a systematic effort to utilize ICT for CO2 reduction. This paper shows that the effects of ICT applications on CO2 emissions are manifold and demonstrates a systematic approach to deal with this variety. The approach combines a standard life-cycle approach with a classification of ICT effects in first- to third-order effects. It is applied to the fields of ICT application that are discussed in literature as candidate fields for ICT-related CO2 reduction. High reduction potentials are identified in the following fields: data centers, mobile phone networks, electronic waste recycling, intelligent space heating, virtual meetings, and the organization of services where consumption is traditionally linked with product ownership. Finally, current barriers preventing the exploitation of these potentials are discussed.

The Environmental Informatics community could recently celebrate its 20th anniversary. The application of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to problems of environmental research and management has made considerable progress and contributes to sustainable development. Moreover, ICT has the potential to virtualize processes that would otherwise consume considerable amounts of material and energy; virtual meetings, for instance, could avoid 97-98% of the CO2 emissions of physical meetings.The time, space, material and energy needed to provide a unit of ICT service have roughly decreased by a factor of 1000 since the first PC was sold. It seems therefore natural that researchers and industries using ICT in the environmental field ignore the environmental impacts caused by ICT hardware – they are just negligible compared to the environmental benefits that can be realized with the applications.Paradoxically, it is the progress in ICT hardware efficiency that has made ICT a part of the problem, too. The global mass and energy flows caused throughout the hardware life cycle are increasing due to the wide-spread use of ICT products and their decreasing useful lives. The environ-mental problems caused by the production, use and disposal of ICT hard-ware are solvable in principle; they are not as hard as the discrepancy between - e.g. - growing mobility and CO2 reduction goals. But problems can only be solved if they are not neglected.

Die "Informatisierung des Alltags" ist eine Vision mit einem hohen gesellschaftlichen Veränderungspotenzial. Die Abschätzung der Folgen einer sol-chen Entwicklung ist notwendig, will man unerwartete negative Auswirkungen minimieren. In der kurzen Geschichte des breiten Einsatzes digitaler Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologien hat es sich bereits gezeigt, dass sich der technische Fortschritt nicht automatisch in die erhofften Vorteile für Individuum, Orga-nisation und Gesellschaft übersetzt. Beispielsweise muss der Gebrauch schnellerer Hardware nicht zu einer höheren persönlichen Arbeitseffizienz führen und der Einsatz von IKT in Organisationen nicht zu geringeren Informationskosten. Dieses "IT productivity paradox" ist teilweise durch Rebound-Effekte zu erklären, die aus einer technikzentrierten Perspektive meist übersehen werden. Psychologische, gesundheitliche, soziale und ökonomische Effekte einer höheren technischen Effizienz müssen daher in einer Abschätzung der Technologiefolgen berücksichtigt werden. Eine Prospektivstudie fü;r Pervasive Computing hat gezeigt, dass jenseits von Produktivitätsaspekten auch die Problemfelder Stress (u.a. durch das Gefühl des Überwachtwerdens), Freiwilligkeit (Autonomie von Konsumenten oder Patienten), unbeherrschbare Komplexität (emergente Eigenschaften der entstehenden Infrastruktur) und Fragen der ökologischen Nachhaltigkeit zu beachten sind.

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Die Vision einer Informationsgesellschaft, deren Wertschöpfungsprozesse sich als Folge des allgemeinen Zugangs zu Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologien (IKT) grundlegend von denen der Industriegesellschaft unterscheiden, weckt Hoffnungen: Ist "die Informationsgesellschaft" der Ausweg aus dem Dilemma, dass wir einerseits die Natur entlasten, andererseits die Bedürfnisse einer steigenden Zahl von Menschen befriedigen müssen?

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To assess the potential impact of ICT on environmental sustainability in the European Union within a time horizon until 2020, we developed a System Dynamics model. In our contribution we make a critical, retrospective evaluation of the model with regard to the requirements and expectations of the project commissioners and of experts involved in the modeling and simulation process. The issues addressed are problem adequacy, validity, transparency, communicability and receptivity of the model. We conclude that modeling approaches that better support a modular model design than System Dynamics does would lead to better results regarding these requirements, and that a modeling language based on a more domain-specific ontology than System Dynamics would be needed to create models that are communicable and have an adequate epistemic connectivity to the scientific and political discourse.

Computer-based systems for processing environmental information have been in use for more than three decades now. A broad range of applications is covered by these systems, including monitoring and control, information management, data analysis, as well as planning and decision support. Progress in informatics has made an invaluablecontribution to our ability to analyse the biological, chemical and physical processes taking place in the environment. Inversely, the complex nature of problems occurring in environmental contexts is a great challenge to informatics. From this process of mutual stimulation, a special discipline has emerged known as Environmental Informatics. It combines computer science topics such as database systems, geographic information systems and simulation modelling with respect to their application to environmental research and protection.

The environmental performance of presently operated GSM and UMTS networks was analysed concentrating on the environmental effects of the End-of-Life (EOL) phase using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method. The study was performed based on comprehensive life cycle inventory and life cycle modelling. The environmental effects were quantified using the IMPACT2002+ method. Based on technological forecasts, the environmental effects of forthcoming mobile telephone networks were approximated.

Information technology (IT) is continuously making astounding progress in technical efficiency. The time, space, material and energy needed to provide a unit of IT service have decreased by three orders of magnitude since the first personal computer (PC) was sold. However, it seems difficult for society to translate IT’s efficiency progress into progress in terms of individual, organizational or socio-economic goals. In particular it seems to be difficult for individuals to work more efficiently, for organizations to be more productive and for the socio-economic system to be more sustainable by using increasingly efficient IT. This article provides empirical evidence and potential explanations for this problem. Many counterproductive effects of IT can be explained economically by rebound effects. Beyond that, we conclude that the technological determinism adopted by decision-makers is the main obstacle in translating IT’s progress into non-technical goals.

Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have relevant positive and negative impacts on environmental sustainability on various levels: First-order effects such as increasing electronic waste streams; second-order effects such as improved energy-efficiency of production; third-order effects such as a product-to-service shift in consumption or rebound effects in transport. In the simulation study described in this article, all known relevant effects on all three levels were modeled using a System Dynamics approach in combination with scenario techniques and expert consultations. The prospective study for the European Union with a time-horizon until 2020 revealed great potential for ICT-supported energy management and for a structural change towards a less material-intensive economy, but strong rebound effects in the transport sector whenever ICT applications lead to time or cost savings for transport. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The vision of Pervasive Computing is built on the assumption that computers will become part of everyday objects, augmenting them with information services and enhanced functionality. This article reports on the approach we have used to assess potential side effects of this development on human health and the environment, and the major risks we identified. Social risks such as the risk of conflicts between users and non-users of the technology were also included because of their potential indirect adverse health effects. Assessing a technological vision before it has materialized makes it necessary to deal with two types of uncertainty: first, the uncertainty of how fast and to what extent the technology will be taken up and how it will be used; second, the uncertainty of causal models connecting technology-related causes with potential health or environmental effects. Due to these uncertainties, quantitative methods to evaluate expected risks are inadequate, Instead, we developed a "risk filter" that makes it possible to rank risks according to a set of qualitative criteria based on the Precautionary Principle. As the overall result, it turned out that Pervasive Computing bears potential risks to health, society, and/or the environment in the following fields: Non-ionizing radiation, stress imposed on the user, restriction of consumers' and patients' freedom of choice, threats to ecological sustainability, and dissipation of responsibility in computer-controlled environments.