Contributions published at Informatics and Sustainability Research (Lorenz Hilty)

The "Technology and Society Lab" at Empa in St. Gallen gathers data about environmental impacts of production, usage and recycling of products and materials. Based on this data, a webapplication has been developed. It allows the user to receive an analysis of the environmental impacts of his usage of media. The application includes the usage of various electronic devices to give the user the possibility to compare the impact of digital media with the impact of print media. The focus of this project lies on the modularity of the application, to ensure usage of current data. It should also be possible to extend the application with further questions and calculations. Therefore, all input possibilities and calculations are generated out of a database. This database can be accessed through an additional maintenance interface.

Agent-based modeling is a promising method to investigate market dynamics, as it allows modeling the behavior of all market participants individually. Integrating empirical data in the agents’ decision model can improve the validity of agent-based models (ABMs). We present an approach of using discrete choice experiments (DCEs) to enhance the empirical foundation of ABMs. The DCE method is based on random utility theory and therefore has the potential to enhance the ABM approach with a well-established economic theory. Our combined approach is applied to a case study of a roundwood market in Switzerland. We conducted DCEs with roundwood suppliers to quantitatively characterize the agents’ decision model. We evaluate our approach using a fitness measure and compare two DCE evaluation methods, latent class analysis and hierarchical Bayes. Additionally, we analyze the influence of the error term of the utility function on the simulation results and present a way to estimate its probability distribution.

The Silicon Valley is the birthplace of the most successful high tech startups in the world. Every company started small, with great minds who were not scared to think big. Some claim they want to make the world a better place to live in. What do founders mean by saying this? What kind of values do they take into account? What drives them to work countless hours? In order to find answers to these questions, interviews with founders have been conducted in the Silicon Valley. Their startups are still in early stages but their visions are big. They were questioned about topics like value creation, human capital or data strategy. The results are summaries of their answers, a visualization of their value system and motivations, general findings as well as a final discussion. Even though money is a strong driver, there are many other motivations which spark todayís innovations.

The internal reference price is the decisive standard against which observed prices are compared to evaluate whether a product offering is a good deal or not. If no reference price has been established for a product category, such as for product innovations, is it uncertain against which standard the price can be compared. Despite extensive research on the use of reference prices, little is known how an internal reference price is constructed for an unfamiliar product category. We conduct two experiments to support our two suggested mechanisms. Reference prices for an unfamiliar product category can either be constructed through repeated exposure to incidental price information or through transfer of price information from a familiar, similar product category to an unfamiliar product category, but only if the product value and price are correlated; a condition often not considered in product innovation testing.

The goal of this thesis is the development of an experimental environment and mathematical model implementation. The experimental environment in form of a web-based tool provides the ability to simulate scenarios, allowing the illustration of the“Too Big To Fail”concept. The implemented math- ematical model is based on repeated game theory and makes experiments as a purpose for learning, planning or gaming possible. This mathematical model delivers optimal values of a risk choice made by a financial institution at a distinct point of time. Hence a comparison of the past decision and the optimum will be possible.

The fast penetration of nanoproducts on the market under conditions of significant uncertainty of their environmental properties and risks to humans creates a need for companies to assess sustainability of their products. Evaluation of the potential benefits and risks to build a coherent story for communication with clients, authorities, consumers, and other stakeholders is getting to be increasingly important, but SMEs often lack the knowledge and expertise to assess risks and communicate them appropriately. This paper introduces LICARA nanoSCAN, a modular web based tool that supports SMEs in assessing benefits and risks associated with new or existing nanoproducts. This tool is unique because it is scanning both the benefits and risks over the nanoproducts life cycle in comparison to a reference product with a similar functionality in order to enable the development of sustainable and competitive nanoproducts. SMEs can use data and expert judgment to answer mainly qualitative and semi-quantitative questions as a part of tool application. Risks to public, workers and consumers are assessed, while the benefits are evaluated for economic, environmental and societal opportunities associated with the product use. The tool provides an easy way to visualize results as well as to identify gaps, missing data and associated uncertainties. The LICARA nanoSCAN has been positively evaluated by several companies and was tested in a number of case studies. The tool helps to develop a consistent and comprehensive argument on the weaknesses and strengths of a nanoproduct that may be valuable for the communication with authorities, clients and among stakeholders in the value chain. LICARA nanoSCAN identifies areas for more detailed assessments, product design improvement or application of risk mitigation measures.

When deciding between product alternatives, consumers have to compare the observed prices to their internal reference price to determine whether the offer is a good deal or not. For product innovations, for which no reference price has been established, it is unclear against which standard the observed price is compared. Despite extensive research on the use of reference prices, little attention has been devoted to the formation of an internal reference price for an unfamiliar product category. We suggest two mechanisms of how reference prices are constructed and find support for these in two experiments. Reference prices for an unfamiliar product category can either be formed through repeated exposure to incidental price information or through transfer of price information from a familiar, similar product category to an unfamiliar product category. Crucial is however that the product price-value relationship is consistent; a condition often not accounted for in product innovation testing.

Biotechnology is a platform technology that may significantly contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Yet biotechnology is hardly ever referred to as a ‘clean technology’. This paper investigates why biotechnology tends to be ignored in this context. A global stakeholder survey on biotechnology and climate change was conducted with 55 representatives of 44 institutions. The results of a perception pattern analysis show that the majority of stakeholder representatives had a neutral or positive attitude towards the use of biotechnology and regarded its potential to address climate change problems as significant. The survey results further reveal a significant relationship between a representative’s institutional and disciplinary background and his or her attitude. To a considerable extent, a person’s background appears to determine whether biotechnology is framed as a risk or an opportunity for sustainable development.

Material flow modeling constitutes an important approach to predicting and understanding the flows of materials through the anthroposphere into the environment. The new “Dynamic Probabilistic Material Flow Analysis (DPMFA)” method, combining dynamic material flow modeling with probabilistic modeling, is presented in this paper. Material transfers that lead to particular environmental stocks are represented as systems of mass-balanced flows. The time-dynamic behavior of the system is calculated by adding up the flows over several consecutive periods, considering changes in the inflow to the system and intermediate delays in local stocks. Incomplete parameter knowledge is represented and propagated using Bayesian modeling. The method is implemented as a simulation framework in Python to support experts from different domains in the development of their application models. After the introduction of the method and its implementation, a case study is presented in which the framework is applied to predict the environmental concentrations of carbon nanotubes in Switzerland.

Third-party providers as entrepreneurs boost technology platforms. Yet, despite increasing interest in technological platforms, existing research offers little predictive insight into how firms can identify individuals who are likely to become entrepreneurs. We take the strategic perspective of a platform owning company, asking how to pinpoint those individuals who transition into entrepreneurship in the near future. We base our analysis on automatically registered behavioral data, such as the complete sales history of all applications related to a technological platform, and the complete history of communications in communities related to the platform. We employ logistic regression models to predict: (a) the transition from registered platform user to third-party developer (i.e. entrepreneurial intent) and (b) the launch of a first platform application (i.e. commercialization). We control for individuals’ social network positions, their communication behaviors, exposure to input from other entrepreneurs (i.e social contagion), and their early adoption and lead- user traits. We show that even after inclusion of these controls volume-wise “bulk” consumption still adds significantly to the predictional power on each step towards entrepreneurship. The impact of simple measures for bulk consumption on entrepreneurship is often ignored in the entrepreneurship literature. Our study contributes to the strategic management literature on the dynamics of innovation on technological platforms, by explicitly linking the production and consumption sides of two-sided markets. It also adds to the entrepreneurship literature by showing how the entrepreneurial process manifests itself in the context of technological platforms.

Der Beitrag beleuchtet und verbindet zwei bislang nur wenig verbundene Stränge der Forschung für Nachhaltigkeit an deutschen Hochschulen: transdisziplinäre Nachhaltigkeitsforschung und Bildung(sforschung) für nachhaltige Entwicklung. Im Bereich der Nachhaltigkeitswissenschaften hat sich neben mono-, multi- und interdisziplinären Zugängen in den vergangenen Jahren ein transdisziplinärer Forschungsmodus etabliert. Für diesen ist charakteristisch, dass der Forschungsprozess nicht allein von Akteur_innen aus dem Wissenschaftssystem gestaltet wird, sondern den Einbezug von nicht-wissenschaftlichen Akteur_innen über verschiedene Phasen des Prozesses hinweg erfordert: von der Konstituierung eines Forschungsgegenstands über den Prozess der Wissensgenerierung bis hin zur (Re-)Integration und Inwertsetzung des generierten Wissens. Bildung für nachhaltige Entwicklung (BNE) stellt ein Bildungskonzept für das 21. Jahrhundert dar. Ziel ist es, Bildungssysteme unter dem Leitbild der nachhaltigen Entwicklung neu auszurichten. BNE rückt von der Konzentration auf Bedrohungsszenarien, Wissensvermittlung und Verhaltensänderung ab. Sie zielt darauf ab, das Potential von Bildung für die Mitgestaltung offener Zukünfte zu erschließen. Der Beitrag zeigt anhand dreier exemplarischer Forschungs- und Entwicklungsprojekte aus dem Arbeitskontext des UNESCO Chair Hochschulbildung für nachhaltige Entwicklung an der Fakultät Nachhaltigkeit der Leuphana Universität Lüneburg verschiedene Zugänge und Arbeitsweisen einer transdisziplinär ausgerichteten Bildungsforschung für nachhaltige Entwicklung auf und diskutiert diese in Bezug auf ihren Mehrwert gegenüber klassischen Forschungszugängen.

Mader und Leitenberger rücken in ihrem Beitrag zu Nachhaltigkeitsassessment den Themenkomplex der Stakeholdereinbindung ins Zentrum des Interesses. Dabei analysieren sie die Rolle der Stakeholder für ein erfolgreiches Nachhaltigkeitsassessment und stellen dies auch am Beispiel der, von der Autorin und dem Autor entwickelten, Nachhaltigkeitsprofilmatix (NPM) vor. Die NPM stellt dabei ein neuartiges Assessmenttool dar welches einen systemischen und ganzheitlichen Ansatz für das Assessment von Unternehmen, Regionen oder Initiativen liefert, inhaltlich jedoch durch den Einbezug der Stakeholder, kontextorientiert und individuell angepasst wird. Damit spiegeln sich die Werte der beteiligten und betroffen Akteure in den Ergebnissen wieder. Der Beitrag dient der Leserin und dem Leser somit als Grundlage für den Einblick in das Nachhaltigkeitsassessment und die Rolle und Potentiale der Stakeholdereinbindung und soll in der praktischen und wissenschaftlichen Arbeit seine Anwendung finden.

The main effect of ICT-related innovation in industrial societies has been an increase in labor productivity so far, whereas resource productivity is lagging behind. If the heralded Industry 4.0 revolution continues on this path, compulsory consumption will continue to create increasing pressure on natural resources, including the use of fossil fuels and its effect on climate change. Opposed to this scenario, ICT could be used in a sustainable way: Sustainable ICT systems focus on resource productivity, adapt to the availability of renewable energy and respect the users’ freedom of economic choice.

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Processes leading to an increase of demand for a resource as a consequence of increasing the efficiency of using this resource in production or consumption are known as (direct) rebound effects. Rebound effects at micro and macro levels tend to offset the reduction in resource consumption enabled by progress in efficiency. Systems thinking and modeling instruments such as causal loop diagrams and System Dynamics can be used to conceptualize the structure of this complex phenomenon and also to communicate model-based insights. In passenger transport, the rebound effect can be invoked by increased cost efficiency (direct economic rebound) and/or increase in speed (time rebound). In this paper we review and compare two existing models on passenger transport – including a model on the role of information and communication technology – with regard to the feedback loops used to conceptualize rebound effects.

This master thesis describes a method for the simulation of business processes in terms of ener-gy efficiency. The discrete event simulation, the modeling notation BPMN 2.0, and the life cycle assessment with the cumulative energy demand as a characteristic value are used as basis. The method is explained in the shape of a practical manual by a case example that represents the fictional order process of a mail order business. The method includes overall six phases. In addi-tion to the mapping of resources with the BPMN model, three different optimization approaches in terms of the cumulative energy demand are presented. These are explained by using three BPMN models. The modeling part and the discrete event simulation of the models are done with the BPM Suite IYOPRO. The data for cumulative energy demand of the used resources are de-termined by the life cycle inventory database Ecoinvent.

Software systems are embedded into daily life and as such have significant effects on the behavior and decision making of both their users and the people affected by using these systems. Such effects can be positive or negative. Considering them in requirements engineering (RE) is an important step towards sustainable development, as RE strongly influences the development and the evolution of a software system. So far, RE researchers have focused on requirements about minimizing negative environmental effects. However, effects that are enabled by using a software system can also be positive. For example, a software system could motivate its users to take environment-friendly decisions. Corresponding requirements about such positive enabling effects have been far less addressed. In this paper, we present an exploratory case study where we elicited requirements about positive enabling effects with respect to environmental sustainability. The project we studied is about extending an existing decision support system for meal planning in canteens by game-based elements. The extended system shall motivate meal planners who work in canteens to make environment-friendly choices. Our contribution is an exemplar of concrete sustainability requirements as well as insight into the nature of sustainability requirements about positive effects that are enabled by the use of a software system.

Electronic devices contain many important resources, including critical chemical elements such as indium or neodymium. For an efficient management of these resources, it is important to know where the devices are located, how long they are used for and when and how they are disposed of. This article presents a dynamic material flow analysis of devices with liquid crystal displays; i.e. flat screen televisions and monitors, laptops and mobile phones, and the subsequent indium flows in Switzerland. The stock of the use phase within the material flow system has been split into an in-use stock and a storage stock. The outflows have been modelled by applying two lifetime distribution functions, one for the service lifetime and one for the storage time. Results highlight the importance of the storage time, being for flat screen TVs of 2.6 years, and for monitors, laptops and mobile phones of over 4 years. For monitors and laptops, the storage stock accounts for around 20%, and for mobile phones 35% of their total stock. These devices in Switzerland represent an indium stock of over 1'800 kg, an indium inflow with new products of 200 kg/year and an outflow with discarded devices of only 90 kg/year. Outflows of the model that includes storage time are significantly lower and show better congruence with actually measured flows. This shows that the storage time slows down the reintegration of secondary resources into the material cycles and therefore increases the stock of resources.

Computing is an activity that is based on natural resources like any other human activity. Technological progress has made it possible to perform more and more computations with less material and energy input. This paper looks at this development through the lens of the three concepts of efficiency, sufficiency, and self-sufficiency, asking the question of whether it could lead to a state of self-sufficiency. This vision, which seems attainable for the activity of computing, is then taken both as a model and as an enabling element for a transition towards a sustainable circular economy based on relative regional self-sufficiency.

Einen Sammelband in einer renommierten Buchreihe herauszugeben, ist heute eine Erfahrung der besonderen Art. Noch konsequenter als bei Zeitschriften werden alle Arbeiten mit Ausnahme des Marketings auf Herausgeber und niedrig qualifizierte Arbeitskräfte in Billiglohnländern abgewälzt. Erfahrungsbericht eines Herausgebers.