Contributions in Merlin

Artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled voice assistants (VAs) such as Amazon Alexa increasingly assist shopping decisions and exhibit empathic behavior. The advancement of empathic AI raises concerns about machines nudging consumers into purchasing undesired or unnecessary products. Yet, it is unclear how the machine’s empathic behavior affects consumer responses and decision-making outcomes during voice-enabled shopping. This article draws from the service robot acceptance model (sRAM) and social response theory (SRT) and presents an individual-session experiment where families (vs. individuals) complete actual shopping tasks using an ad-hoc Alexa app featuring high (vs. standard) empathic capabilities. We apply the experimental conditions as moderators to the structural model, bridging selected functional, social-emotional, and relational variables. Our framework collocates affective empathy, explicates the bases of consumers’ beliefs, and predicts behavioral outcomes. Findings demonstrate (i) an increase in consumers’ perceptions, beliefs, and adoption intentions with empathic Alexa, (ii) a positive response to empathic Alexa holding constant in family settings, and (iii) an interaction effect only on the functional model dimensions whereby families show greater responses to empathic Alexa while individuals to standard Alexa.

We propose and implement a procedure to optimally hedge climate change risk. First, we construct climate risk indices through textual analysis of newspapers. Second, we present a new approach to compute factor mimicking portfolios to build climate risk hedge portfolios. The new mimicking portfolio approach is much more efficient than traditional sorting or maximum correlation approaches by taking into account new methodologies of estimating large-dimensional covariance matrices in short samples. In an extensive empirical out-of-sample performance test, we demonstrate the superior all-around performance delivering markedly higher and statistically significant alphas and betas with the climate risk indices.

This paper estimates the curvature of the Earth, defined as one over its radius, without relying on physical measurements. The orthodox model states that the Earth is (nearly) spherical with a curvature of π/20'000 km. By contrast, the heterodox flat-Earth model stipulates a curvature of zero. Abstracting from the well-worn arguments for and against both models, rebuttals and counter-rebuttals ad infinitum, we propose a novel statistical methodology based on verifiable flight times along regularly scheduled commercial airline routes; this methodology allows for both estimating and making inference for Earth's curvature. In particular, a formal hypothesis test resolutely rejects the flat-Earth model, whereas it does not reject the orthodox spherical-Earth model.

This paper studies the impact of carbon pricing on firms’ inflation expectations and discusses the potential implications for what constitutes the core of most central banks’ mandate: price stability. Carbon policy shocks are identified from high-frequency changes in carbon futures price around regulatory events. The shock series is combined with French firm-level survey data. We document that a change in the price of carbon increases firms’ inflation expectations. We then investigate how firms’ business conditions are affected by carbon policy shocks and we find that firms’ own expected and realized price growth respond similarly to inflation expectations. The effect on price expectations is more persistent than on actual price growth leading to positive forecast errors in the medium-/long-run. We also show that a sizable share of the increase in inflation expectations is due to indirect effects. Firms rely on their own business conditions to form expectations about the aggregate price dynamics. Therefore, the expected positive growth in their own prices significantly contributes to the observed increase in inflation expectations. Finally, we study how firms’ responses are heterogeneously influenced by the shocks based on the share of input costs devoted to energy expenditures. We find that high energy-intensive firms tend to overreact relatively more in terms of their own price expectations compared to the actual price change the shocks induce.

We study paternalistic preferences in two large-scale experiments with participants from the general population in the United States. Spectators decide whether to intervene to prevent a stakeholder, who is mistaken about the choice set, from making a choice that is not aligned with the stakeholders’ own preferences. We find causal evidence for the nature of the intervention being of great importance for the spectators’ willingness to intervene. Only a minority of the spectators implement a hard intervention that removes the stakeholder’s freedom to choose, while a large majority implement a soft intervention that provides information without restricting the choice set. This finding holds regardless of the stakeholder’s responsibility for being mistaken about the choice set - whether the source of mistake is internal or external - and in different subgroups of the population. We introduce a theoretical framework with two paternalistic types - libertarian paternalists and welfarists - and show that the two types can account for most of the spectator behavior. We estimate that about half of the spectators are welfarists and that about a third are libertarian paternalists. Our results shed light on attitudes toward paternalistic policies and the broad support for soft interventions.

We study same-sex role model effects of teachers with a meta-analysis and our own study of three million students in 90 countries. Both approaches show that role model effects on performance are, on average, small: 0.030 SD in the meta-analysis and 0.015 SD in our multi-country study. Going beyond test scores, our multi-country study documents larger average role model effects on job preferences (0.063 SD). To understand the universality of these effects, we estimate the distributions of country-level same-sex role model effects. Although role model effects on test scores appear universally small, we find substantial cross-country variation for job preferences, with larger effects in countries with larger gender gaps. These results are consistent with role models inspiring students to overcome gender stereotypes and pursue a STEM career. However, in countries with negligible gender gaps, role models do not seem to have this equalizing function.

How costly is the misallocation of production that we might expect to result from distortions such as market power, incomplete contracts, taxes, regulations, or corruption? This paper develops new tools for the study of misallocation that place minimal assumptions on firms’ underlying technologies and behavior. We show how features of the distribution of marginal products can be identified from exogenous variation in firms’ input use, and how these features can be used both to test for misallocation and to quantify the welfare losses that it causes. We then consider an application in which thousands of firms experience demand shocks derived from a lottery-based assignment of public procurement contracts for construction services in Ecuador. Using administrative tax data about these firms, we reject the null of efficiency but estimate that the welfare losses resulting from misallocation are only 1.6% relative to the first-best. Standard parametric assumptions applied to the same setting would suggest losses that are at least an order of magnitude larger.

Inflation can significantly undermine companies’ relationships with their customers, employees, and other stakeholders, spawning a crisis of trust. This is particularly true in a period when many citizens accuse corporations of excessively raising prices to maximize profits. Studying the cross-sectional reactions of U.S. stocks to inflation over the period 2018-2022, we find that in the month following a higher inflation rate, equity investors reward firms with stronger social capital, as proxied by their corporate social responsibility (CSR) levels. The effect holds using different measures of inflation, including region-specific ones. The inflation-hedging property of CSR is stronger for firms headquartered in Democratic U.S. states (those most exposed to the “corporate greed” narrative of inflation) and appears to operate through the firm’s cash flows. Analyst forecast revisions provide additional evidence of the value of CSR in inflationary periods. Overall, the findings spotlight inflation as a crisis in stakeholder trust and provide new insights into the importance of social capital for firm value.

This paper studies how investors infer CEO commitment to honesty from earnings management and how these perceptions – in conjunction with investors’ own social and moral preferences – shape their investment choices. We conduct two laboratory experiments simulating investment choices. Our results show that participants perceive a CEO to be more committed to honesty when they infer that the CEO engaged less in earnings management. For investment decisions, a one standard deviation increase in a CEO's perceived commitment to honesty compared to another CEO reduces the relevance of differences in the CEOs’ claimed future returns by 40%. This effect is most prominent among investors with a proself value orientation. To prosocial investors, their own honesty values and those attributed to the CEO matter directly, while returns only play a secondary role. Overall, our results suggest that moral motives are not a niche concern for norm-constrained investors, but instead matter to different categories of investors for distinct reasons.

Inflation has heterogeneous impacts on households, which then affects optimal monetary policy design. I study optimal monetary policy rules in a quantitative heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model where inflation has redistributive effects on households through their different (1) consumption baskets, (2) nominal wealth positions, and (3) earnings elasticities to business cycles. I parameterize the model based on the empirical analysis of these channels using the most recent data. Unlike in representative agent models, a utilitarian central bank should adopt an asymmetric monetary policy rule that is accommodative towards inflation and aggressive towards deflation. Specifically, by accommodating stronger demand and higher inflation, the central bank benefits low-income and low-wealth households through nominal debt devaluation and higher earnings growth.