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| Type | Working Paper |
| Scope | Discipline-based scholarship |
| Title | Replication: Do Coaches Stick with What Barely Worked? Evidence of Outcome Bias in Professional Sports |
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| Institution | University of Zurich |
| Series Name | UZH Business Working Paper Series |
| Number | 400 |
| ISSN | 2296-0422 |
| Number of Pages | 20 |
| Date | 2023 |
| Abstract Text | Consistent with outcome bias, we replicate the finding of Lefgren et al. (2015) showing that professional basketball coaches in the NBA discontinuously change their starting lineup more often after narrow losses than after narrow wins, even though this outcome is conditionally uninformative. As our paper shows, this pattern is not restricted to the NBA; we find evidence of outcome bias in the top women’s professional basketball league and college basketball. Finally, we show that outcome bias in coaching decisions generalizes to the National Football League (NFL). We conclude that outcome bias is credible and robust, although it has weakened over time. |
| Free access at | Official URL |
| Official URL | https://www.business.uzh.ch/de/research/wps.html |
| Other Identification Number | merlin-id:23489 |
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| Keywords | Outcome bias; Strategy revision; Regression discontinuity design; Replication |