Thorsten Hens, Stefan Reimann, Bodo Vogt, Competitive Nash Equilibria and Two Period Fund Separation, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 172, 2003. (Working Paper)
We suggest a simple asset market model in which we analyze competitive and strategic behaviornsimultaneously. If for competitive behavior two-fund separation holds across periods then itnalso holds for strategic behavior. In this case the relative prices of the assets do not dependnon whether agents behave strategically or competitively. Those agents acting strategically willnhowever invest less in the common mutual fund. Constant relative risk aversion and absencenof aggregate risk are shown to be two alternative sufficient conditions for two-period fundnseparation. With derivatives further strategic aspects arise and strategic behavior is distinctnfrom competitive behavior even for those utility functions leading to two-fund separation. |
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Igor V Evstigneev, Thorsten Hens, Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, Evolutionary Stable Stock Markets, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 170, 2003. (Working Paper)
This paper shows that a stock market is evolutionary stable if andnonly if stocks are evaluated by expected relative dividends. Any othernmarket can be invaded by portfolio rules that will gain market wealthnand hence change the valuation. In the model the valuation of assetsnis given by the wealth average of the portfolio rules in the market. Thenwealth dynamics is modelled as a random dynamical system. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for the evolutionary stabilitynof portfolio rules when (relative) dividend payoffs form a stationarynMarkov process. These local stability conditions lead to a unique evolutionary stable strategy according to which assets are evaluated bynexpected relative dividends. |
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Bruno Frey, Simon Luechinger, Measuring Terrorism, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 171, 2003. (Working Paper)
Terrorism will be high on the political agenda for many years to come. Various policies are open to a government fighting terrorism but, in any case, considerable costs are involved. In the competition for politicalnsupport, the costs and benefits of anti-terrorism policies will be debated. Better information about terrorism and its consequences can improve policy outcome if there is electoral competition. Over the last few years, economic scholars have analysed the effects terrorist acts have on various aspects of the economy. The findings of these impact studies are summarised in this paper. They capture, however, only part of the overall utility losses.nHence, several approaches to value public goods and conceptual issues concerning their application to terrorismnare discussed. In particular, the hedonic market approach, the averting behaviour method, the contingent valuation method and vote and popularity functions are reviewed. Further, an exploratory analysis of estimating individuals' utility losses using life satisfaction or happiness data is presented. This paper also discusses ansubstantially different approach combining measurement and decision-making, namely popular referenda. |
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Rainer Winkelmann, Parental Separation and Well-Being of Youths, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 312, 2003. (Working Paper)
This paper uses recent data for Germany and a new outcome variable to assess the consequences of parental separation on the well-being of youths. In particular, it is considered how subjective well-being, elicited from an ordinal 11-point general life satisfaction question, differs between youths living in intact and non-intact families, holding many other potential determinants of well-being constant using ordered probit regressions. The main finding of this study is that living in a non-intact family has not the hypothesised large negative effect on child well-being. |
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Rainer Winkelmann, Re-evaluating an Evaluation Study: The Case of the German Health Care Reform of 1997, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 311, 2003. (Working Paper)
This paper reports on a re-evaluation of the German health care reform of 1997. A previous evaluation found a limited effect of a 4.4 percent reduction of the number of doctor visits in a sample of pharmacy customers. The re-evaluation based on a representative household survey, the German Socio-Economic Panel, yields a much larger effect. The paper uses this case study to discuss the methods and benefits of modern techniques of program evaluation. |
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Rainer Winkelmann, Co-Payments for Prescription Drugs and the Demand for Doctor Visits - Evidence from a Natural Experiment, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 307, 2003. (Working Paper)
The German health care reform of 1997 provides a natural experiment for evaluating the price sensitivity of demand for physicians’ services. As part of the reform, copayments for prescription drugs were increased by up to 200 percent. However, certain groups of people were exempted from the increase, providing a natural control group against which the changed demand for physicians’ services of the treated, those subject to increased co-payments, can be assessed. The differences-in-differences estimates indicate that increased co-payments reduced the number of doctor visits by about 10 percent on average. |
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Bruno Frey, Alois Stutzer, Direct Democracy: Designing a Living Constitution, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 167, 2003. (Working Paper)
"A crucial aspect of constitutional design is the provision of rules on how anconstitution is to be amended. If procedures for constitutional amendment are very restrictive,nchanges will take place outside the constitution. These changes are likely to be against thencitizens interests and their ability to influence the political process. We argue that thendevelopment of the constitution must be based on the rule of law. We propose directndemocratic rights that allow citizens to participate in the amendment process. The directndemocratic process of institutional change is theoretically and empirically analyzed. Annumber of counter arguments and issues for a gradual introduction are discussed." |
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Stefan Buehler, Armin Schmutzler, Downstream Investment in Oligopoly, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 310, 2003. (Working Paper)
We examine cost-reducing investment in vertically-related oligopolies, where firms may be vertically integrated or separated. Analyzing a standard linear Cournot model, we show that: (i) Integrated firms invest more than separated competitors. (ii) Vertical integration increases own investment and decreases competitor investment. (iii) Firms may integrate strategically so as to preempt investments by competitors. Adopting a reduced-form approach, we identify demand/mark-up complementarities in the product market as the driving force for these results. We show that our results generalize naturally beyond the Cournot example, and we discuss policy implications. |
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Rob Euwals, Rainer Winkelmann, Training Intensity and First Labor Market Outcomes of Apprenticeship Graduates, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 308, 2003. (Working Paper)
The apprenticeship system is the most important source of formal post-secondary training in Germany. Using German register data - the IAB Employment Sample - we find that apprentices staying with their training firm after graduation have longer first-job durations but not higher wages than apprentices leaving the training firm. Retention rates, first job durations, and post-apprenticeship wages are all increasing functions of training intensity. Some implications for the ongoing debate as to why firms are willing to invest in general training are discussed. |
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Margit Osterloh, Bruno Frey, Corporate Governance for Crooks? The Case for Corporate Virtue, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 164, 2003. (Working Paper)
Corporate scandals are reflected in excessive top management compensation and fraudulent accounts. These scandals cause an enormous amount of damage, not only to the companies affected, but also to the market economy as a whole. As a solution, conventional wisdom suggests more monitoring and sanctioning of management. We argue that these efforts will create a governance structure for crooks. Instead of solving the problem, they make it worse. Selfish extrinsic motivation is reinforced. We suggest measures which clash with conventional wisdom: selecting employees with pro-social intrinsic preferences, de-emphasizing variable pay for performance and strengthening the participation and self-governance of employees. These measures help to increase intrinsically motivated corporate virtue and honesty. |
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Bruno Frey, Direct Democracy for Transition Countries, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 165, 2003. (Working Paper)
Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence are advanced to bolster the claim that direct political participation via referenda and initiatives constitutes an advanced form of democracy with beneficial effects on Transition Countries.nDirect democracy raises trust and honesty and improves social outcomes. Per capita incomes and subjective well-being are raised.nStandard arguments against direct democracy (citizens' incompetence and lacking interest, danger of manipulation and emotionality, hindering progress and destroying civil rights, high cost) are rejected.nElements of direct democracy can be introduced at the national and local levels, and then proceeding further. Citizens should have the right to govern this process.n |
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Stefan Buehler, Justus Haucap, Mobile Number Portability, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 303, 2003. (Working Paper)
This paper examines the consequences of introducing mobile number portability (MNP). As MNP allows consumers to keep their telephone number when switching providers, it reduces consumers’ switching costs. However, MNP may also cause consumer ignorance if telephone numbers no longer identify networks. As a result, while fostering competition for mobile customers, MNP may also induce operators to increase termination charges for calls to mobile networks, generating ambiguous welfare e.ects. We examine how extensions such as MNP based on call-forwarding, termination fee regulation, and alternative means of carrier identification a.ect these findings. |
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Stefan Buehler, Justus Haucap, Strategic Outsourcing Revisited, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 305, 2003. (Working Paper)
This paper analyzes a sequential game where firms decide about outsourcing the production of a non-specific input good to an imperfectly competitive input market. We apply the taxonomy of business strategies introduced by Fudenberg and Tirole (1984) to characterize the different equilibria. We find that outsourcing generally softens competition in the final product market. If firms anticipate the impact of their outsourcing decisions on input prices, there may be equilibria where firms outsource so as to collude or to raise rivals’ costs. We illustrate our analysis using a linear Cournot model. |
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Bruno Frey, Stephan Meier, "Social Comparisons and Pro-social Behavior - Testing "Conditional Cooperation" in a Field Experiment", In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 162, 2003. (Working Paper)
"People behave pro-socially in a wide variety of situations that standard economic theory is unable to explain. Social comparison is one explanation for such pro-social behavior: people contribute if others contribute or cooperate as well. This paper tests social comparison in a field experiment at the University of Zurich. Each semester every single student has to decide whether he or shenwants to contribute to two Social Funds. We provided 2500 randomly selected students with information about the average behavior of the student population. Some received the information that a high percentage of the student population contributed, while others received the information that a relatively low percentage contributed. The results show that people behave pro-socially, conditional on others. The more others cooperate, the more one is inclined to do so as well. The type of person is important. We are able to fix the types by looking at revealed past behavior. Some persons seem to care more about the pro-social behavior of others, while other types are not affected by the average behavior of the reference group." |
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Aleksander Berentsen, Guillaume Rocheteau, Shouyong Shi, Friedman Meets Hosios: Efficiency in Search Models of Money, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 154, 2003. (Working Paper)
In this paper we study the inefficiencies of the monetary equilibrium and optimal monetary policies in a search economy. We show that the same frictions that give fiat money a positive value generate an inefficient quantity of goods in each trade and an inefficient number of trades (or search decisions). The Friedman rule eliminates the first inefficiency and the Hosios rule the second. A monetary equilibrium attains the social optimum if and only if both rules are satisfied. When the two rules cannot be satisfied simultaneously, which occurs in a large set of economies, optimal monetary policy achieves only the second best. We analyze when the second-best monetary policy exceeds the Friedman rule and when it obeys the Friedman rule. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to an economy with barter and show how the Hosios rule must be modified in order to internalize all search externalities. |
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Reto Foellmi, Josef Zweimüller, Inequality and Economic Growth - European Versus U.S. Experiences, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 158, 2003. (Working Paper)
This paper discusses long-term trends in the macroeconomic growthnperformance and in income distribution in Europe and the U.S. We reviewninsights from the recent macroeconomic literature on inequality and growthnuse these insights to shed light on the growth and inequality trends. |
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Aleksander Berentsen, Guillaume Rocheteau, On the Friedman Rule in Search Models with Divisible Money, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 155, 2003. (Working Paper)
"with Divisible Money *nAleksander BerentsennEconomics Department (WWZ), University of Basel, SwitzerlandnGuillaume RocheteaunSchool of Economics, Australian National University, AustralianApril 14th, 2003nAbstractnThis paper studies the validity of the Friedman rule in a search model with divisi-blenmoney and divisible goods where the terms of trades are determined endogenously.nWe show that ex post bargaining generates a holdup problem similar to the one em-phasizednin the labour-market literature. Buyers cannot obtain the full return that annadditional unit of money provides to the match, which makes the purchasing power ofnmoney ine .ciently low in equilibrium. Consequently, even though the Friedman rulenmaximizes the purchasing power of money, it fails to generate the first-best allocationnof resources unless buyers have all the bargaining power." |
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Haim Levy, Enrico De Giorgi, Thorsten Hens, Prospect Theory and the CAPM: A contradiction or coexistence?, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 157, 2003. (Working Paper)
Under the assumption of normally distributed returns, we analyzenwhether the Cumulative Prospect Theory of Tversky and Kahneman (1992)nis consistent with the Capital Asset Pricing Model. We find that in everynfinancial market equilibrium the Security Market Line Theorem holds.nHowever, under the specific functional form suggested by Tversky andnKahneman (1992) financial market equilibria do not exist. We suggest annalternative functional form that is consistent with both, the experimentalnresults of Tversky and Kahneman and also with the existence of equilibria. |
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Aleksander Berentsen, Time-Consistent Private Supply of Outside Paper Money, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 156, 2003. (Working Paper)
"Money *nAleksander BerentsennEconomics Departement, University of Basel, SwitzerlandnJune 10, 2003nAbstractnThis paper considers a monopolists supply of outside paper money in a random-matchingnmodel with divisible money and divisible goods. When binding supplynannouncements are feasible, the revenue-maximizing policy is characterized by anninitial period where the monopolist initiates a currency reform which destroys thenvalue of any old currency, and then issues new money, which the issuer taxes thereafternwith a constant gross growth rate of money. It is shown that this policy is time-consistentnif the trading history of the issuer is public information and if moneyndemanders respond to the relevation of defection by playing autarky." |
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Haim Levy, Enrico De Giorgi, Thorsten Hens, Two Paradigms and Nobel Prizes in Economics: A Contradiction or Coexistence?, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 161, 2003. (Working Paper)
Markowitz and Sharpe won the Nobel Prize in Economics more than a decade ago for thendevelopment of Mean-Variance analysis and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). In the yearn2002, Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in Economics for the development of Prospect Theory. Cannthese two apparently contradictory paradigms coexist?nIn deriving the CAPM, Sharpe, Lintner and Mossin assume expected utility (EU)nmaximization following the approach proposed by Markowitz, normal distributions and risknaversion. Kahneman & Tversky suggest Prospect Theory (PT) and Cumulative Prospect Theoryn(CPT) as an alternative paradigm to EU theory. They show that investors distort probabilities,nmake decisions based on change of wealth, exhibit loss aversion and maximize the expectation ofnan S-shaped value function which contains a risk-seeking segment. Employing change of wealthnrather than total wealth contradicts EU theory. The subjective distortion of probabilities violatesnthe CAPM assumptions of normality and homogeneous expectations, and the S-shaped valuenfunction violates the risk aversion assumption. We prove in this paper that although CPT (and PT)nis in conflict to EUT, and violates some of the CAPM's underlying assumptions, the securitynmarket line theorem (SMLT) of the CAPM is intact in the CPT framework. |
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