Contributions published at Economic History (Ulrich Woitek)

I use spatial and temporal variation in temperature shocks to examine the effect of adverse weather conditions on the onset of social conflicts in seventeenth- and eighteenth-century France. The paper’s contribution is threefold. First, I document the effect of temperature shocks on standards of living using cross-section and panel prices data. Second, I link highresolution temperature data and a new database of 8,528 episodes of social conflicts in France between 1661 and 1789. I use a linear probability model with subregional and year fixed effects to establish a causal connection between temperature shocks and conflicts. One standard deviation increase in temperature increased the probability of social conflicts by about 5.3 per cent. To the best of my knowledge, these results are the first to quantify the effect of temperature shocks on intergroup conflict in pre-industrial Europe. Finally, I investigate the role of local leaders– the intendants– in the mitigation of temperature shocks. I show that leaders with higher level of local experience were better able to cope with adverse weather conditions. I argue that years of local experience were a key determinant in the intendant’s ability to administer efficiently his province. This interpretation is supported by historical evidence.

The potential link between climate variability, conflict, and migration is increasingly viewed as a security issue by policy makers. Climate variability and extremes raise critical challenges to agriculture and food production all over the world, and lead to diminished coping capacity, loss of livelihoods, as well as migration flows. The essays in this dissertation raise the question of resilience to shocks in pre-industrial economies using the cases of France and Savoy during the Ancien Régime. More specifically, it documents the role of institutions and migration in reducing the vulnerability to climate shocks and hence violence. It further studies both the effect of seasonal migration as a resilience strategy against adverse economic conditions, and the socio-economic consequences of large and unexpected episode of migration.

Did weather shocks increase interpersonal conflict in early modern Europe? I address this question by exploiting year-to-year seasonal variations in temperature and detailed crime data I assembled from Savoyard criminal procedures over the period 1749--89. I find that temperature shocks had a positive and significant effect on the level of property crimes, but no significant effect on violent crimes. I further document how seasonal migration may help to increase the coping capacity of local communities in which they were widely used. Migrant labourers brought remittances to supplement communities' resources and also temporarily relieve their communities of the burden of feeding them. I show that temperature shocks were strongly associated with increase in the property crimes rate, but the effect is much lower in provinces with high levels of seasonal migration. I provide historical evidence to show that the inflow of remittances may drive this relationship.

We analyse the social background of the administrative elite of the second French colonial empire. A new dataset of all individuals who held offices as colonial governors in Indochina, Madagascar, French Equatorial Africa, French West Africa, and Algeria between 1830 and 1960 shed new light on variations over time in the composition of this group. We compare our findings with the changing characteristics of other metropolitan administrative elites, notably the French préfets. The variations we observe can be explained by changes in the relationship between France and its colonies, in the relative attractiveness of a colonial career, and in the process of institutionalisation of the colonies. Between 1830 and 1960, colonial careers offered more opportunities for upward social mobility than administrative careers in the metropole. In particular, the creation of the French colonial administration at the turn of the twentieth century favoured individuals from modest social backgrounds or those who had pursued atypical career paths. The increased professionalization of colonial careers after the First World War led to a greater homogenization of occupational trajectories and social backgrounds of colonial governors. Nevertheless, the possibility of upward social mobility remained significant for colonial administrators, and eroded only with the upheavals of the Second World War.

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