Not logged in.
Quick Search - Contribution
Contribution Details
| Type | Journal Article |
| Scope | Discipline-based scholarship |
| Title | Prediction accuracy of different market structures – bookmakers versus a betting exchange |
| Organization Unit | |
| Authors |
|
| Item Subtype | Original Work |
| Refereed | Yes |
| Status | Published in final form |
| Language |
|
| Journal Title | International Journal of Forecasting |
| Publisher | Elsevier |
| Geographical Reach | international |
| ISSN | 0169-2070 |
| Volume | 26 |
| Number | 3 |
| Page Range | 448 - 459 |
| Date | 2010 |
| Abstract Text | There is a well-established body of literature on separately testing the prediction power of different betting market settings. This paper provides an inter-market comparison of the forecasting accuracy of bookmakers and a major betting exchange. Employing a dataset covering all football matches played in the major leagues of the “Big Five” (England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain) during three seasons (5478 games in total), we find evidence that the betting exchange provides more accurate predictions of a given event than bookmakers. A simple betting strategy of selecting bets for which bookmakers offer lower probabilities (higher odds) than the betting exchange generates above average, and in some cases even positive returns. |
| Digital Object Identifier | 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.01.004 |
| Other Identification Number | merlin-id:669 |
| PDF File |
Download from ZORA
|
| Export |
BibTeX
EP3 XML (ZORA)
|
| Keywords | Prediction accuracy, Betting, Bookmaker, Bet exchange, Probit regression |