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Contribution Details

Type Working Paper
Scope Discipline-based scholarship
Title Preference Reversals and Probabilistic Choice
Organization Unit
Authors
  • Pavlo R Blavatskyy
Language
  • English
Institution University of Zurich
Series Name Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics
Number No. 383
ISSN 1424-0459
Date 2008
Abstract Text Preference reversals occur when different (but formally equivalent) elicitation methodsnreveal conflicting preferences over two alternatives. This paper shows that when people have fuzzy preferences i.e. when they choose in a probabilistic manner, their observed decisions can generate systematic preference reversals. A simple model of probabilistic choice and valuation can account for a higher incidence of standard (nonstandard) preference reversals for certainty (probability) equivalents and it can also rationalize the existence of strong reversals. An important methodological contribution of the paper is a new definition of a probabilistic certainty/probability equivalent of a risky lottery.
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