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Contribution Details
| Type | Journal Article |
| Scope | Discipline-based scholarship |
| Title | Citations or dollars? Early signals of a firm’s research success |
| Organization Unit | |
| Authors |
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| Item Subtype | Original Work |
| Refereed | Yes |
| Status | Published in final form |
| Language |
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| Journal Title | Technological Forecasting and Social Change |
| Publisher | Elsevier |
| Geographical Reach | international |
| ISSN | 0040-1625 |
| Volume | 201 |
| Page Range | 123208 |
| Date | 2024 |
| Abstract Text | Scientific and technological progress is largely driven by firms in many domains, including artificial intelligence and vaccine development. The early identification of the future performance of innovation players is a relevant goal for policymakers and practitioners. In this work, we investigate how the future trajectory of a firm can be predicted by the economic or technological value of its early patents. By inspecting the patenting life cycles of 7440 publicly listed firms, we find that the economic value of a firm’s early patents is an accurate predictor of various dimensions of a firm’s future research success. At the same time, a smaller set of future top-performers do not generate early patents of high economic value, but they are detectable via the technological value of their early patents. Importantly, the observed heterogeneity of the firms’ temporal success patterns markedly differs from the patterns previously observed for individuals’ research careers. |
| Free access at | DOI |
| Digital Object Identifier | 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123208 |
| Other Identification Number | merlin-id:24282 |
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| Keywords | Management of Technology and Innovation, Applied Psychology, Business and International Management |