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Contribution Details

Type Journal Article
Scope Discipline-based scholarship
Title Replication: Do coaches stick with what barely worked? Evidence of outcome bias in sports
Organization Unit
  • Pascal Flurin Meier
  • Raphael Flepp
  • Egon Franck
Item Subtype Original Work
Refereed Yes
Status Published in final form
  • English
Journal Title Journal of Economic Psychology
Publisher Elsevier
Geographical Reach international
ISSN 0167-4870
Volume 99
Page Range 102664
Date 2023
Abstract Text We replicate the finding of Lefgren et al. (2015) showing that professional basketball coaches in the NBA discontinuously change their starting lineup more often after narrow losses than after narrow wins. This result is consistent with outcome bias because such narrow outcomes are conditionally uninformative. As our paper shows, this pattern is not restricted to the NBA; we also find evidence of outcome bias in the top women’s professional basketball league and college basketball. Finally, we show that outcome bias in coaching decisions generalizes to the National Football League (NFL). We conclude that outcome bias is credible and robust, although it has weakened over time in some instances.
Free access at DOI
Digital Object Identifier 10.1016/j.joep.2023.102664
Other Identification Number merlin-id:24058
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Keywords Economics and Econometrics, Applied Psychology, Sociology and Political Science