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| Type | Book Chapter |
| Scope | Discipline-based scholarship |
| Title | Modeling the effects of ICT on environmental sustainability: revisiting a system dynamics model developed for the european commission |
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| Item Subtype | Original Work |
| Refereed | Yes |
| Status | Published in final form |
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| Booktitle | ICT Innovations for Sustainability |
| Series Name | Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing |
| ISBN | 978-3-319-09227-0 (P) 978-3-319-09228-7 (E) |
| ISSN | 2194-5357 |
| Number | 310 |
| Place of Publication | Cham |
| Publisher | Springer |
| Page Range | 449 - 474 |
| Date | 2015 |
| Abstract Text | This chapter revisits a System Dynamics model developed in 2002 with the aim of exploring the future impacts of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on environmental sustainability in the EU, which then consisted of 15 countries. The time horizon of the study was 20 years (2000-2020). We analyze the results in light of empirical data that is now available for 2000-2012. None of the three scenarios that were developed by experts to specify the external factors needed to run the model were realistic from today’s point of view. If the model is re-run with more realistic input data for the first half of the simulation period, however, the main results regarding the impact of ICT remain qualitatively the same; they seem to be relatively robust implications of the causal system structure, as it is represented in the model. Overall, the impacts of ICT for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental burdens for 2020 tend to be slightly stronger if the simulation is based on the empirical data now available. |
| Digital Object Identifier | 10.1007/978-3-319-09228-7_27 |
| Other Identification Number | merlin-id:10288 |
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| Additional Information | The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09228-7_27 |