Zava Aydemir, Stefan Buehler, Estimating Vertical Foreclosure in U.S. Gasoline Supply, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 212, 2002. (Working Paper)
We examine the competitive effects of the vertical integration of gasoline refineries and retailers in the U.S. Adapting the first-order condition approach of static oligopoly games to the analysis of vertically related oligopolies, we develop a novel framework for directly evaluating the strategic foreclosure effect and the effciency benefits associated with vertical integration. Applying this framework, we find significant evidence for both vertical foreclosure and effciency benefits. The foreclosure effect dominates the effciency benefits for more than half of the refining firms in the sample. Vertical foreclosure is found to increase the wholesale price of refined gasoline by 0.2 to 0.6 cents per gallon. |
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Dirk Engelmann, Urs Fischbacher, Indirect Reciprocity and Strategic Reputation Building in an Experimental Helping Game, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 132, 2002. (Working Paper)
We study indirect reciprocity and strategic reputation building in an experimental helping game. At any time only half of the subjects can build a reputation. This allows us to study both pure indirect reciprocity that is not contaminated by strategic reputation building and the impact of incentives for strategic reputation building on the helping rate. We find that while pure indirect reciprocity appears to be important, the helping choice seems to be influenced at least as much by strategic considerations. Strategic do better than non-strategic players and non-reciprocal do better than reciprocal players, casting doubt on previously proposed evolutionary explanations for indirect reciprocity. |
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Ernst Fehr, Jean-Robert Tyran, Limited Rationality and Strategic Interaction, The Impact of the Strategic Environment on Nominal, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 130, 2002. (Working Paper)
The evidence from many experiments suggests that people are heterogeneous with regard to their abilities to make rational, forward looking, decisions. This raises the question when the rational types are decisive for aggregate outcomes and when the boundedly rational types shape aggregate results. We examine this question in the context of a long-standing and important economic problem - the adjustment of nominal prices after an anticipated money shock. Our experiments show that when agents' actions are strategic substitutes adjustment to the new equilibrium is extremely quick whereas under strategic complementarity adjustment lasts very long and is associated with relatively large real effects. This adjustment difference occurs because price expectations are very flexible under substitutability and very sticky under complementarity. Our results suggest that strategic complementarity does not only provide incentives for the rational types to partly mimic the behavior of the boundedly rational types butnit also renders people less rational and forward looking. In addition, underncomplementarity people attribute less rationality to the other players. |
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Ernst Fehr, John A List, The Hidden Costs and Returns of Incentives - Trust and Trustworthiness among CEOs, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 134, 2002. (Working Paper)
We examine experimentally how Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) respond to incentives and how they provide incentives in situations requiring trust and trustworthiness. As a control we compare the behavior of CEOs with the behavior of students. We find that CEOs are consider-ably more trusting and exhibit more trustworthiness than students-thus reaching substantially higher efficiency levels than students. Moreover, we find that, for CEOs as well as for students, incentives based on explicit threats to penalize shirking backfire by inducing less trustworthy behavior-giving rise to hidden costs of incentives. However, the availability of penalizing incentives also creates hidden returns: if a principal expresses trust by voluntarily refraining from implementing the punishment threat, the agent exhibits significantly more trustworthiness than if the punishment threat is not available. Thus trust seems to reinforce trustworthy behav-ior. Overall, trustworthiness is highest if the threat to punish is available but not used, while it is lowest if the threat to punish is used. Paradoxically, however, most CEOs and students use the punishment threat, although CEOs use it significantly less. |
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Armin Falk, Rafael Lalive, Josef Zweimüller, The Success of Job Applications: A New Approach to Program Evaluation, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 131, 2002. (Working Paper)
In this paper, we suggest a novel approach to program evaluation that allows identification of the causal effect of a training program on the likelihood of being invited to a job interview under weak assumptions. The idea is to measure the program-effects by pre- and post-treatment data that are very close in time for the same individual. Our approach provides useful information on both, average effects of the program as well as information on the effects of the program for each individual. Evidence on individual treatment effects is helpful as it can be used to improve the targeting of programs. |
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Bruno Frey, Matthias Benz, Alois Stutzer, Introducing Procedural Utility: Not only What, but also How Matters, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 129, 2002. (Working Paper)
People not only care about outcomes, they also value the procedures which lead to the outcomes. Procedural utility is a potentially important source of human well-being. This paper aims at introducing the concept of procedural utility into economics, and argues that it should be incorporated more widely into economic theory and empirical research. Three building blocks of a concept of procedural utility are outlined and it is suggested how procedural utility can be fruitfully integrated. Evidence from a broad range of social sciences is reviewed in order to show that procedural utility is a relevant concept for economics. |
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Matthias Benz, Alois Stutzer, Do Workers Enjoy Procedural Utility?, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 127, 2002. (Working Paper)
People are likely to obtain utility not only from actual outcomes, but also from the conditions which lead to these outcomes. This paper empirically tests the notion of procedural utility for the context of work relationships. Using a large survey among British workers, we find substantial procedural effects on the utility workers derive from their pay. Utility from pay is not only strongly influenced by economic outcomes (the pay levels workers get for given inputs), but also by the way pay is determined. The findings are robust to a series of alternative explanations. |
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Rainer Winkelmann, Health Care Reform and the Number of Doctor Visits An Econometric Analysis, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 210, 2002. (Working Paper)
The paper evaluates the German health care reform of 1997, using the individual number of doctor visits as outcome measure and data from the German Socio- Economic Panel for the years 1995-1999. A number of modified count data models allow to estimate the effect of the reform in different parts of the distribution. The overall effect of the reform was a 10 percent reduction in the number of doctor visits. The effect was much larger in the lower part of the distribution than in the upper part. |
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Yves Schneider, Peter Zweifel, How Much Internalization of Nuclear Risk Through Liability Insurance?, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 211, 2002. (Working Paper)
An important source of conflict surrounding nuclear energy is that with a very small probability, a large-scale nuclear accident may occur. One way to internalize the financial risks associated with such an accident is through mandatory liability insurance. This paper presents estimates of the willingness to pay for increased financial security provided by an extension of coverage, based on the `stated choice' approach. A Swiss citizen with median characteristics may be willing to pay 0.08 cents per kwh to increase coverage beyond the current CHF 0.7 bn. (USD 0.47 bn.). Marginal willingness to pay declines with higher coverage but exceeds marginal cost at least up to a coverage of CHF 4 bn. (USD 2.7 bn.). An extension of nuclear liability insurance coverage therefore may be effciency-enhancing. |
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Enrico De Giorgi, A Note on Portfolio Selections under Various Risk Measures, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 122, 2002. (Working Paper)
This work gives a brief overview of the portfolio selection problem following the mean-risk approach first proposed by Markowitz (1952). We consider various risk measures, i.e. variance, value-at-risk and expected-shortfall and we study the efficient frontiers obtained by solving the portfolio selection problem under these measures. We show that under the assumption that returns are normally distributed, the efficient frontiers obtained by taking value-at-risk or expected-shortfall are subsets of the mean-variance efficient frontier. We generalize this result for all risk measures that can be written as a particular combination of mean and variance and we show that for these measures Tobin separation holds under some restrictions. |
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Zava Aydemir, Armin Schmutzler, Acquisitions versus Entry: The Evolution of Concentration, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 208, 2002. (Working Paper)
We consider market dynamics in a reduced form model. In the simplest version, there are two investors and several small noninvesting firms. In each period, one investor can acquire a small firm, the other investor decides about market entry. After that all firms play an oligopoly game. We derive conditions under which increasing market concentration arises with myopic firms, we show that a model with forward-looking firms and with arbitrary numbers of investors yield similar results. We apply the framework to a Cournot model with cost synergies and a Bertrand model where acquisitions extend the product spectrum of a firm. |
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Thorsten Hens, Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, Martin Stalder, An Application of Evolutionary Finance to Firms Listed in the Swiss Market Index, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 128, 2002. (Working Paper)
This paper presents an application of evolutionary portfolio theory to stocks listed in the Swiss Market Index (SMI). We study numerically the long-run outcome of the competition of rebalancing rules for market shares in a stock market with actual dividends taken from firms listed in the SMI. Returns are endogenous because prices are determined by supply and demand stemming from the rebalancing rules. Our simulations show that in competition with rebalancing rules derived from Mean-Variance Optimization, Maximum Growth Theory and Behavioral Finance, the evolutionary portfolio rule discovered in Hens and Schenk-Hoppé (2001) will eventually hold total market wealth. According to this simple rule the portfolio weights should be proportional to the expected relative dividends of the assets. |
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Stefan Buehler, Armin Schmutzler, Men-Andri Benz, Infrastructure Quality in Deregulated Industries: Is there an Underinvestment Problem?, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 209, 2002. (Working Paper)
We investigate how various institutional settings affect a network provider’s incentives to invest in infrastructure quality. Under reasonable assumptions on demand, investment incentives turn out to be smaller under vertical separation than under vertical integration, though we also provide counter-examples. The introduction of downstream competition for the market can sometimes improve incentives. With suitable non-linear access prices investment incentives under separation become identical to those under integration. |
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Ernst Fehr, Urs Fischbacher, Elena Tougareva, Do High Stakes and Competition Undermine Fairness? Evidence from Russia, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 120, 2002. (Working Paper)
This paper reports the results of a series of competitive labour market experiments in which subjects have the possibility to reciprocate favours. In the high stake condition subjects earned between two and three times their monthly income during the experiment. In the normal stake condition the stake level was reduced by a factor of ten. We observe that both in the high and the normal stake condition fairness concerns are strong enough to outweigh competitive forces and give rise to non-competitive wages. There is also no evidence that effort behaviour becomes generally more selfish at higher stake levels. Therefore, our results suggest that, contrary to common beliefs, fairness concerns may play an important role even at relatively high stake levels. |
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Andreas Polk, How Special Interests Shape Policy - A Survey, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 206, 2002. (Working Paper)
This paper surveys recent approaches towards lobbying if interest groups influence the decision of an incumbent government. It describes the two main channels of influence which mainly exist in parallel, namely contribution payments and the transmission of information through lobbying. Recent extensions to the two basic lobbying models are discussed in great detail. Thereafter follows a short overview over current research, which tries to consolidate the two distinct branches of literature into a general lobbying model. The survey concludes with a summary of the main insights and indicates promising directions of further research. |
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Simon Gächter, Armin Falk, Reputation and Reciprocity: Consequences for the Labour Relation, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 19, 2002. (Working Paper)
"Recent evidence highlights the importance of social norms in many economic relations. However, many of these relationships are long-term and provide repeated game incentives for performance. We experimentally investigate interaction effects of reciprocity and repeated game incentives in two treatments (one-shot and repeated) of a gift-exchange game. In both treatments we observe reciprocity, which is strengthened in the repeated game. A detailed analysis shows that in the repeated game some subjects imitate reciprocity. Thus, reciprocity and repeated game incentives reinforce each other. Observed behaviour is robust against experience. We conclude that a long-term interaction is a reciprocity-compatible contract enforcement device." |
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Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, Resuscitating the Cobweb Cycle, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 123, 2002. (Working Paper)
"This note shows that permanent fluctuations in the Cobweb model though inconsistent with a rational expectations equilibrium can be justified as being rational when reinterpreting the model in the theory of rational beliefs." |
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Rainer Winkelmann, Subjektive Daten in der empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung: Probleme und Perspektiven, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 207, 2002. (Working Paper)
Preise, Einkommen, und Nachfrage – die zentralen zu erklaerenden Variablen in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften sind objektiv messbar. Daneben gibt es jedoch zwei nicht minder zentrale Groessen, Erwartungen und Praeferenzen, die sich einer direkten objektiven Messung entziehen. Es sind subjektive Variablen, also solche, die von persoenlichen Meinungen und Erfahrungen bestimmt sind. Allerdings bedeutet dies nicht, dass sie ueberhaupt nicht messbar waeren. Ganz im Gegenteil enthalten typische Haushaltsbefragungen eine ganze Reihe von subjektiven Fragen, die ueber verschiedene Aspekte von Erwartungs- und Praeferenzbildung informieren. Im folgenden werde ich darstellen, welche Arten von subjektiven Variablen bisher in der empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung betrachtet wurden. Dann werde ich auf Probleme bei der Interpretation von subjektiven Variablen eingehen. Und schliesslich werde ich die wesentlichen Aspekte der oekonometrischen Modellbildung besprechen und zwei neue Modelle vorstellen. |
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Bruno Frey, "Publishing as Prostitution? Choosing Between One's Own Ideas and Academic Failure", In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 117, 2002. (Working Paper)
Survival in academia depends on publications in refereed journals. Authors only get their papers accepted if they intellectually prostitute themselves by slavishly following the demands made by anonymous referees without property rights on the journals they advise. Intellectual prostitution is neither beneficial to suppliers nor consumers. But it is avoidable. The editor (with property rights on the journal) should make the basic decision of whether a paper is worth publishing or not. The referees only give suggestions on how to improve the paper. The author may disregard this advice. This reduces intellectual prostitution and produces more original publications. |
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Andreas Polk, Lobbying Activities of Multinational Firms, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 205, 2002. (Working Paper)
This paper investigates if multinationals in.uence the political process through lobbying more effectively than national firms. First, I introduce a model which contrasts a multinational’s incentives for lobbying with those of a national firm. Then the effect of lobbying on the political decision is analyzed. I conclude that multinationals have smaller incentives to lobby because they have smaller stakes in national markets. But the effectiveness of lobbying by multinationals might be higher if the government cares much about production in the home country. The resulting regulation depends on the relative strength of these effects. |
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