Contributions in Merlin

Using 10 years of high?frequency foreign exchange data, we present evidence of time?of?day effects in foreign exchange returns through a significant tendency for currencies to depreciate during local trading hours. We confirm this pattern across a range of currencies and find that, in the case of EUR/USD, it can form a simple, profitable trading strategy. We also find that this pattern is present in order flow and suggest that both patterns relate to the tendency of market participants to be net purchasers of foreign exchange in their own trading hours. Data from alternative sources appear to corroborate that interpretation.

We use intraday trading and order data to measure liquidity in the foreign exchange (FX) market. FX liquidity exhibits significant cross-sectional and temporal variation during our sample period January 2007--December 2009. We decompose liquidity into an idiosyncratic and a common component. Empirical results show that liquidity comoves strongly across currencies and that systematic FX liquidity decreases dramatically during the financial crisis. Consistent with a theory of liquidity spirals, we document that FX market liquidity is related to funding liquidity and liquidity of equity markets. Finally, we introduce a tradable FX liquidity risk factor, which is shown to account for most of the variation in daily carry trade returns.

Models for realized covariance matrices may suffer for the curse of dimensionality as more traditional multivariate volatility models(such as GARCH and stochastic volatility). Within the class of realized covariance models we focus on the Wishart specification introduced by Gourieroux et al. (2009) and analyze here the forecasting performances of the parametric restrictions discussed in Bonato et al. (2009) which are motivated by asset features such as their economic sector, book-to-market or price-earnings ratios, among others. Our purpose is to verify if restricted model forecasts are statistically equivalent to full model specification, a result that would support the use of restrictions when the problem cross sectional dimension is large.

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Modern corporations use complex debt instruments and pursue acquisitions. In orderto analyze the properties of some of these contracts in the event of an acquisition, thispaper considers a company that has an incumbent capital structure, comprising one of five practically important structured debt contracts. An opportunity for an acquisition comes along that was not ex-ante contractible. The equityholder decides on the financing of this expansion by trading off tax advantages of debt against costs of bankruptcy. The modelyields a number of insights for structured debt and acquisitions, four of which are as follows: First, a seniority clause offers the bondholder protection from agency, but it also decreases the equityholder’s incentives to finance the acquisition. Second, embedded call options are valuable even if interest rates are constant, because they allow the equityholder to issue a new bond at fair value. Third, bankruptcy remoteness is valuable, if assets are very risky. Fourth, convertible bonds are vulnerable to agency and the conversion option bears the same incentive problem as a seniority clause. These properties explains, for example, the otherwise puzzling practice of companies buying out convertible bond holders prior to anacquisition.

In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm to estimate the term structure of interest rates. It is obtained from a constrained optimization, where the objective is to minimize the integral of squared first derivatives of the instantaneous forward interest rate subject to the condition that the estimated bond prices lie within the range of observed bid and ask prices. We use a finite series of ordinary Laguerre polynomials to approximate the unknown function of the instantaneous forward interest rate. The objective function can be written explicitly as a quadratic form of the Laguerre constants and the nonlinear constraints can be obtained from a recurrence relationship. The estimation error is less than one basis point, given a sufficient number of bonds.

Since the late 1990s, the European higher education system has had to face deep structural changes. With the public authorities seeking to create an environment of quasi-markets in the higher education sector, the increased competition induced by recent reforms has pushed all publicly financed higher education institutions to use their resources more efficiently. Higher education institutions increasingly now aim at differentiating themselves from their competitors in terms of the range of outputs they produce. Assuming that different market positioning strategies will have different effects on the performance of higher education institutions, this paper explores the existence of economies of scale and scope in the German higher education sector. Using an input-oriented distance function approach, we estimate the economies of scale and scope and the technical efficiency for 154 German higher education institutions from 2001 through 2007. Our results suggest that comprehensive universities should indeed orientate their activities to the concept of a full-university that combines teaching and research activities across a broad range of subjects. In contrast, praxis-oriented small and medium-sized universities of applied sciences should specialise in the teaching and research activities they conduct.

This paper studies the Cass-Koopmans-Ramsey model of optimal economic growth in the presence of loss aversion and habit formation. The representative agent's preferences for consumption can be gradually varied between the standard constant intertemporal elasticity of substitution (CIES) case and Kahneman and Tversky's prospect utility. We nd that the transitional dynamics of optimal consumption paths differ distinctly from the standard model, in particular consumption smoothing is more pronounced. We also show that prospect utility can cause the economy to remain in a steady state with low consumption and low capital.

Theoretically, collateral constraints have the potential to strongly amplify and propagate aggregate shocks. However, the quantitative literature tends to find rather weak and non-robust effects. This paper tries to improve on this by modeling the interaction between idiosyncratic risk and collateral constraints. To this aim, agents' productivities as workers and entrepreneurs are assumed to evolve stochastically. This leads to a perpetual mismatch between wealth and skills, which is the reason for collateralized borrowing. The advantage of this modeling strategy is threefold: First, the evolution of skills can be measured empirically. In contrast, the heterogeneity in patience that the previous literature assumes to excite collateralized borrowing is not even intended as a serious micro-foundation. Second, idiosyncratic risk creates a non-degenerate distribution of wealth. As a consequence, the percentage of constrained agents changes as shocks hit the economy. Among other things, this generates recessions that are much sharper than booms. Last but not least, the impact of collateral constraints turns out to be larger and more robust in the setup with idiosyncratic risk compared to models with heterogeneity in patience.

The pricing kernel puzzle is the observation that the pricing kernel might be increasing in some range of the market returns. This paper analyzes the pricing kernel in a financial market equilibrium. If markets are complete and investors are risk-averse and have common and true beliefs, the pricing kernel is a decreasing function of aggregate resources. If at least one of these assumptions is violated, the pricing kernel is not necessarily decreasing. Thus, incomplete markets, risk-seeking behaviour and incorrect beliefs can induce increasing parts in the pricing kernel and can be seen as potential solutions for the pricing kernel puzzle. We construct examples to illustrate the three explanations. We verify the robustness of the explanations under aggregation and compare the phenomena with the findings in the empirical literature. The results are used to reveal strengths and weaknesses of the three solutions. Risk-seeking behaviour is a fragile explanation that can only work in a model with atomic state space. Biased beliefs are robust under aggregation and consistent with the empirical findings. In incomplete markets, it is easy to find a pricing kernel with increasing parts. In order to get situations where all pricing kernels have increasing parts, we need extreme assumptions on the wealth distribution.