Maximilian Valentin Rüdisser, Raphael Flepp, Egon Franck, Do casinos pay their customers to become risk-averse? Revising the house money effect in a natural experiment, In: Business Working Paper Series, No. 360, 2015. (Working Paper)
In order to promote risky behavior, it is a common practice that casinos incentivize their customers through the provision of free financial means, i.e., free play. Thereby, casino operators try to exploit what is known as the house money effect. However, evidence from the field is scarce and prior research provides explanations that predict different behavioral outcomes. This experimental study analyzes the gambling behavior of 765 casino customers and finds that incentivized customers show not higher but significantly lower levels of risk-seeking behavior, expressed through lower wagers per game and overall smaller losses. This study thus provides evidence against the existence of a house money effect. |
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Stefan Schembera, Patrick Haack, Andreas Scherer, Making sense of decoupling through narration : the case of fighting corruption in global business, In: UZH Business Working Paper Series, No. 356, 2015. (Working Paper)
Previous organizational research on decoupling in the context of socio-environmental governance has suggested a trade-off between compliance and goal achievement, meaning that remedying the decoupling of policies and practices tends to jeopardize efforts to remedy the decoupling of means and ends. We expand on previous research on the trade-off between compliance and goal achievement by examining the spatiotemporal processes of sensemaking by which the meaning of compliance and achievement is negotiated among multiple actors. Taking a qualitative analytical approach we examine the evolution of anti-corruption policies at Siemens and affiliated actors, and describe how different anti-corruption narratives have developed over time at different locations and how they have been linked to each other. We explain that through narration actors develop a shared understanding of what it means to be compliant and successful and elaborate how the apparent tension between compliance and goal achievement is dissolved through story-telling. Our study contributes to decoupling re-search by examining the ideational-communicative dynamics underlying the social deconstruction of the compliance-achievement gap. |
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Thi Quynh Anh Vo, Liquidity Management in Banking: What is the Role of Leverage?, In: Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper, No. 15-51, 2015. (Working Paper)
This paper examines potential impacts of banks' leverage on their incentives to manage their liquidity. We analyze a model where banks control their liquidity risk by managing their liquid asset positions. In the basic framework, a model with a single bank, where the possibility of selling long-term assets when in need of liquidity is not taken into account, we find that the bank chooses to prudently manage its liquidity risk only when its leverage is low. In a model with multiple banks and a secondary market for long-term assets, we find that a banking system where banks are highly leveraged can be prone to liquidity crises. Our model predicts a typical pattern of liquidity crises that is consistent with what was observed during the 2007-2009 crisis. |
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Falko Paetzold, Timo Busch, Cognitive Barriers to Sustainable Investing: Unleashing the Power of Wealthy Private Investors, In: DSF Policy Paper, No. 41, 2014. (Working Paper)
Sustainable investing (SI) has lately been viewed as a mainstream investment style. However, this notion can be questioned since private investors appear substantially underrepresented in SI compared to institutional investors. In this study, we empirically explore SI-barriers for private investors. We provide insights from interviews with High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs), an economically highly significant yet secretive and thus little researched segment of private investors. Our results indicate substantial interest in SI amongst HNWIs, while the perception of what SI entails varied across individuals. From our analysis, we propose three specific SI-barriers. The first is an SI-information asymmetry based on investment advisors’ perception that appears to misinterpret clients’ interest in SI. The second relates to HNWIs’ perception of SI to be more volatile then average investments. This perception limits the engagement in SI in situations where the investor has a short-term investment horizon. The third barrier highlights the role of recent financial losses. In situations where the investor experienced such losses, the perception of SI as being more volatile than average investments results in less SI engagement. We reflect on these empirical results by drawing on insights from Prospect Theory and propose avenues for future research. In sum, this paper shows that investors’ cognition of SI appears to be an important engagement reason that goes beyond the usual business-case-arguments. |
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Ciprian Necula, Gabriel Grigore Drimus, Erich Walter Farkas, A General Closed Form Option Pricing Formula, In: SSRN, No. 2210359, 2015. (Working Paper)
A new method to retrieve the risk-neutral probability measure from observed option prices is developed and a closed form pricing formula for European options is obtained by employing a modified Gram-Charlier series expansion, known as the Gauss-Hermite expansion. This expansion converges for fat-tailed distributions commonly encountered in the study of financial returns. The expansion coefficients can be calibrated from observed option prices and can also be computed, for example, in models with the probability density function or the characteristic function known in closed form. We investigate the properties of the new option pricing model by calibrating it to both real-world and simulated option prices and find that the resulting implied volatility curves provide an accurate approximation for a wide range of strike prices. Based on an extensive empirical study, we conclude that the new approximation method outperforms other methods both in-sample and out-of-sample. |
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Erich Walter Farkas, Ciprian Necula, Boris Waelchli, Herding and Stochastic Volatility, In: SSRN, No. 2685939, 2015. (Working Paper)
In this paper we develop a one-factor non-affine stochastic volatility option pricing model where the dynamics of the underlying is endogenously determined from micro-foundations. The interaction and herding of the agents trading the underlying asset induce an amplification of the volatility of the asset over the volatility of the fundamentals. Although the model is non-affine, a closed form option pricing formula can still be derived by using a Gauss-Hermite series expansion methodology. The model is calibrated using S&P 500 index options for the period 1996-2013. When its results are compared to some benchmark models we find that the new non-affine one-factor model outperforms the affine one-factor Heston model and it is competitive, especially out-of-sample, with the affine two-factor double Heston model. |
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Erich Walter Farkas, Elise Gourier, Robert Huitema, Ciprian Necula, A Two-Factor Cointegrated Commodity Price Model with an Application to Spread Option Pricing, In: SSRN, No. 2679218, 2015. (Working Paper)
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Christian Eggenberger, Miriam Rinawi, Uschi Backes-Gellner, Occupational Specificity: A new Measurement Based on Training Curricula and its Effect on Labor Market Outcomes, In: Swiss Leading House "Economics of Education" Working Paper, No. 106, 2015. (Working Paper)
This paper proposes a new measurement for the specificity of occupations based on a content analysis of training curricula that we link to labor market demands. We apply Lazear’s (2009) skill weights approach and test predictions on labor market outcomes derived from his theory. We find clear evidence of a trade-off between earning higher returns with more specific training and higher occupational mobility with less specific training. Our measure improves the micro-foundation of human capital specificity and provides an evidence-based approach to evaluate the specificity of training curricula. |
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Ivan Petzev, Andreas Schrimpf, Alexander Wagner, Has the Pricing of Stocks Become More Global?, In: Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper, No. 15-48, 2016. (Working Paper)
We show that in recent years global factor models have been catching up significantly with their local counterparts in terms of explanatory power (R2) for international stock returns. This catch-up is driven by a rise in global factor betas, not a rise in factor volatilities, suggesting that the effect is likely to be permanent. Yet, there is no conclusive evidence for a global factor model catch-up in terms of pricing errors (alpha) or a convergence in country-specific factor premia. These findings suggest that global financial markets have progressed surprisingly little towards fully integrated pricing, different from what should be expected under financial market integration. We discuss alternative explanations for these patterns and assess implications for practice. |
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Remo Stössel, Willingness to be financially informed and the benefits of nudging investors to do so, In: SSRN, No. 2629058, 2015. (Working Paper)
Bhattacharya et al. (2012) shows that many investors are reluctant to accept and follow financial advice. This study analyzes three possibilities which could cause this misbehavior: non-monetary costs, willingness to become informed and comprehensibility of financial information. As so many investors do not accept financial advice, the study further analyzes if it is beneficial to nudge investors to do what is good for them (i.e. a risk profiling task). In order to improve the comprehensibility of financial information, the study further tests if different kinds of investors prefer different kinds of risk description formats. The results show that non-monetary costs and the comprehensibility of financial information are not the reasons why so many investors are reluctant to become informed investors. Moreover, nudging investors to do what is good for them is especially beneficial for investors who are intrinsically insufficiently motivated to become informed and who are financially unexperienced. Last but not least, the data clearly shows that different kinds of investors prefer different kinds of risk description formats. |
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Pablo Koch Medina, Cosimo Munari, Mario Sikic, Diversification, protection of liability holders and regulatory arbitrage, In: ArXiv.org, No. 1502.03252, 2015. (Working Paper)
Any solvency regime for financial institutions should be aligned with the two fundamental objectives of regulation: protecting liability holders and securing the stability of the financial system. From these objectives wederive two normative requirements for capital adequacy tests, called surplus and numeraire invariance, respectively. We characterize capital adequacy tests that satisfy surplus and numeraire invariance, establish anintimate link between these requirements, and highlight aninherent tension between the ability to meet them and the desire to give credit for diversification. |
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Matthias Uhl, Nowcasting Private Consumption with TV Sentiment, In: KOF Working Paper Series, No. 293, . (Working Paper)
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Miriam Rinawi, Uschi Backes-Gellner, Occupational Tasks and Wage Inequality in West Germany: A Decomposition Analysis, In: Swiss Leading House Economics of Education Working Paper Series, No. 112, 2019. (Working Paper)
This paper investigates the role of occupational tasks in driving changes in the West German wage structure. Using administrative wage data matched with task data, we run RIF regression-based decompositions to quantify the contribution of cognitive, interactive, and manual tasks to changes in wage inequality from 1978 to 2006. We find that until the 1990s, changing returns to education and experience were driving wage inequality. Occupational tasks started playing a role only in the 1990s. During this period, increasing returns to cognitive tasks widened both upper-tail and lower-tail inequality. Conversely, decreasing returns to manual tasks were uniformly decreasing inequality. Furthermore, in the 2000s, we find an important role for interactive tasks in driving lower-tail inequality. |
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Peter Schmidt, Urs von Arx, Andreas Schrimpf, Andreas Ziegler, Alexander Wagner, Size and Momentum Profitability in International Stock Markets, In: Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper, No. 15-29, 2017. (Working Paper)
We study the link between the profitability of momentum strategies and firm size, drawing on an extensive dataset covering 23 stock markets across the globe. We first present evidence of an "extreme" size premium in a large number of countries. These size premia, however, are most likely not realizable due to low stock market depth. We also show that international momentum profitability declines sharply with market capitalization. Momentum premiums are also considerably diminished by trading costs, when taking into account the actual portfolio turnover incurred when implementing this strategy. In contrast to strategies based on size, we find that momentum premia especially for medium-sized stocks still remain economically and statistically significant in most equity markets worldwide after adjusting for transaction costs. |
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Meike A S Bradbury, Stefan Zeisberger, Thorsten Hens, How Risk Simulations Improve Long-Term Investment Decisions, In: SSRN, No. 2603780, 2016. (Working Paper)
We propose and test a novel way of communicating investment risks in which investors are presented with a simulation of prospective wealth paths over time when making their investment decision. We test the benefits of our new approach and alternative ways of risk communication, like graphical illustrations or simulating final wealth outcomes, in a long-term experiment in which investors experience intermediate investment success and can adjust their investment strategy along the way, rather than making one-off investment decisions. Our results show that simulating possible wealth paths serves as a substitution for actual investment experience, possibly reducing the costs of investment mistakes. It also improves investors’ understanding of risk compared to other means of risk communication. We conclude that risk simulations are a useful way to improve investors’ decision making abilities. |
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Johannes Meuer, Christian Rupietta, Qualifying “fit”: the performance dynamics of firms’ change tracks through organizational configurations, In: Compass Working Paper, No. 2014-81, 2015. (Working Paper)
Organizational configurations, sets of firms with similarities in a number of essential characteristics, provide important insights into the synergies inherent to certain combinations of structural attributes and the performance effects of firms’ retention of, adaptation to, or decoupling from high-performing configurations. The fundamental assumption is that the better a firm’s “fit” with an ideal type configuration, the higher its performance. Although configurations are multidimensional constructs, researchers often simplify the dynamics of structural changes of configurations and the movement of firms within and between them. This simplification risks mis-specifying the organizational changes necessary for firms to achieve high performance. Using a mix of set-theoretic and econometric methods, we analyze a balanced panel of 244 Swiss firms in 2005, 2008, and 2011. We identify four temporally stable high-performing configurations: the “professional service firm,” the “organic,” the “mechanistic,” and the “small bureaucracy,” and demonstrate that even within this relatively short period, firms are exceptionally versatile in their change tracks. Thus high-performing configurations appear enduring not despite but because of firms' movements through these configurations. Furthermore, we demonstrate the complexity of the fit-performance association and argue that firms with a good fit will not only benefit from implementing an efficient yet firm-unspecific organizational structure, but will—through this configuration additionally improve their ability to exploit inimitable firm-specific resources. |
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Marco D'Errico, Corrado Macchiarelli, Roberta Serafini, Differently unequal: Zooming-in on the distributional dimensions of the crisis in euro area countries, In: LSE ‘Europe in Question’ Discussion Paper Series, No. 86, 2015. (Working Paper)
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Stefano Battiston, Guido Caldarelli, Marco D'Errico, Stefano Gurciullo, Leveraging the Network: A Stress-Test Framework Based on DebtRank, In: SSRN, No. 2571218, 2015. (Working Paper)
We develop a novel stress-test framework to monitor systemic risk in financial systems. The modular structure of the framework allows to accommodate for a variety of shock scenarios, methods to estimate interbank exposures and mechanisms of distress propagation. The main features are as follows. First, the framework allows to estimate and disentangle not only first-round effects (i.e. shock on external assets) and second-round effects (i.e. distress induced in the interbank network), but also third-round effects induced by possible fire sales. Second, it allows to monitor at the same time the impact of shocks on individual or groups of financial institutions as well as their vulnerability to shocks on counterparties or certain asset classes. Third, it includes estimates for loss distributions, thus combining network effects with familiar risk measures such as VaR and CVaR. Fourth, in order to perform robustness analyses and cope with incomplete data, the framework features a module for the generation of sets of networks of interbank exposures that are coherent with the total lending and borrowing of each bank. As an illustration, we carry out a stress--test exercise on a dataset of listed European banks over the years 2008-2013. We find that second-round and third-round effects dominate first-round effects, therefore suggesting that most current stress-test frameworks might lead to a severe underestimation of systemic risk. |
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Marco D'Errico, Gulnur Muradoglu, Silvana Stefani, Giovanni Zambruno, Opinion Dynamics and Price Formation: a Nonlinear Network Model, In: arXiv preprint, No. 1408.0308, 2014. (Working Paper)
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Alexandre Ziegler, Edward P Lazear, The Dominance of Retail Stores, In: NBER, Cambridge, No. 9795, 2003. (Working Paper)
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