Contributions published at Economic History (Ulrich Woitek)

The paper re-examines Sweden’s price level targeting during the 1930s which is regarded as a precursor of today’s inflation targeting. According to conventional wisdom the Riksbank was the first central bank to adopt price level targeting as the guideline for its activities, although in practice giving priority to exchange rate stabilisation over price level stabilisation. On the basis of econometric analysis (Bayesian VAR) and the evaluation of new archival sources we come to a more skeptical conclusion. Our results suggest that it is hard to reconcile the Riksbank’s striving for a fixed exchange rate with the claim that it adopted price level targeting. This finding has implications for the prevailing view of the 1930s as a decade of great policy innovations.

This paper examines the role of religious denomination for human capital formation. We employ a unique data set which covers, inter alia, information on numerous measures of school inputs in 169 Swiss districts for the years 1871/72, 1881/82nand 1894/95, marks from pedagogical examinations of conscripts (1875-1903), andnresults from political referenda to capture conservative or progressive values in addition to the cultural characteristics language and religion. Catholic districts show on average significantly lower educational performance than Protestant districts. However, accounting for other sociocultural characteristics qualifies the role of religion for educational production. The evidence suggests that Catholicism is harmful onlynin a conservative milieu. We also exploit information on absenteeism of pupils fromnschool to separate provision of schooling from use of schooling.

Paleopathological data provide valuable information about health, longevity and mortality in earlier human populations. We investigated the incidence of spinal pathologies on 54 individuals (1045 vertebrae and 18 sacral bones) that belong to a medieval skeletal series discovered in the Dalheim monastery (Northwest Germany) and compared them with contemporary and recent populations. The skeletons were analyzed with anthropological methods (sex and age determination), by macroscopic inspection, and, if pathologies of the spine and the sacrum were visible, also by X-ray. We investigated evidence of trauma, specific and nonspecific infectious diseases, joint diseases, tumors, and congenital as well as metabolic disorders. Radiocarbon determination of four samples of different specimens was also undertaken revealing a historic dating of ca. 1050 AD. The most common pathological findings were degenerative changes of the spine found in 29 individuals (53.3%). Examples of infections of the spine were rare (0.8% of all vertebrae). There were no cases of traumatic injuries of the spine. The prevalence of spondylosis deformans, the most commonly found type of pathology was found to be higher in the lumbar region, in males as well as in individuals of low stature.

The influence of the environment and genetics on individual biological characteristics such as body mass and stature is well known. Many studies of these relationships have been based on conscript data. These studies often suffer from the fact that their data cover only a part of the population. Characterized by prosperity, democratic stability and enormous micro-regional cultural diversity, Switzerland is in the unique situation of offering data covering more than 80% of annual male birth cohorts. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of socio-economic success, cultural differences, month of birth and altitude (among other factors) on individual anthropometric characteristics of conscripts (N~28,000) in the 2005 census. Our result highlights in such a large male sample the relationship between economic environment, regional cultural diversity, climate and other factors such as individual month of birth on stature and weight. Socioeconomic status, culture (as reflected by mother tongue) and month of birth were found to have significant effects on height and weight, while altitude did not show such effects. In general, weight is more affected by all these variables than height. Taking weight-dependent mortality and morbidity into account, it is of foremost public interest to know more about paired effects of living conditions on stature and weight in a highly developed society.

In the time domain, the observed cyclical behavior of the real wage hides a range of economic influences that give rise to cycles of differing lengths and strengths. This may serve to produce a distorted picture of wage cyclicality. Here, we employ frequency domain methods that allow us to assess the relative contribution of cyclical frequency bands on real wage earnings. Earnings are decomposed into standard and overtime components. We also distinguish between consumption and production wages. Frequency domain analysis is carried out in relation to wages alone and to wages in relation to output and employment cycles. Our univariate analysis suggests that, in general, the dominant cycle followed by output, employment, real consumer and producer wages and their components is 5-7 years. Consistent with previous findings reported in the macro-level literature, our bi-variate results show that the various measures of the wage are generally not linked to the employment cycle. However, and in sharp contrast with previous macro-level studies we find strong procyclical links between the consumer wage and its overtime components and the output cycle, especially at the 5-7 years frequency.

Question under study: Affected by individual life style, total cholesterol serum level is a major morbidity and mortality risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD). We present total cholesterol values and possible etiological factors of young Swiss conscripts. Particularly, we focus on the varying impact of such a component depending on different levels of individual cholesterol. Methods: Male conscripts (n=19’272) of the 2005 census of the conscripts have been examined, reflecting ca. 59% of a total Swiss male citizen birth cohort. Quantile regression allows us to analyze the reagibility of arbitrary quantiles with respect to variables of interest. Results: Eleven percent of all conscripts show an increased total cholesterol level. A major association of high individual cholesterol level is with French mother tongue. The largest socio-economic subsample – agricultural and construction sectors – show significantly higher individual cholesterol levels than employees in the industry sector and students, respectively. Conclusions: We were able to find and exclude various as yet unstudied factors influencing individual total cholesterol levels. Such a screening programme offers a unique opportunity to target persons at high-risk for CVD morbidity and mortality already early in life.

Applying stochastic frontier analysis, we estimate distance to frontier of countries in the production of success at the Summer Olympic Games since the 1950s. Our measures of success are medal shares and a broader concept including Olympic diplomas. Following Bernard and Busse (2004), population and GDP are used as inputs. While the impact of GDP is always positive, we show that the sign of the population effect depends on wealth and population size of a country. The results show that the spread of distance to frontier is very wide over time, across countries, gender, and sports: not only resource endowment matters, but also utilization of resources. These differences can be seen as caused by differences in financial support, training methods, organization, or culture. Using the method proposed by Battese and Coelli (1995), we build on well documented results in the literature and identify the channels through which planned economies and host countries generate Olympic success. The method allows to shed light on aspects of recent history such as the consequences of the breakdown of the former Soviet Union.

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to examine the quantitative macroeconomic implications of counter-ncyclical fiscal policy for France, Germany and the UK. The model incorporates real wage rigidity which is the particular market failurenjustifying policy intervention. We subject the model to productivity shocks and use either government consumption or investment to react to the output gap or the public debt-to-output ratio. If the objectnof fiscal policy is purely to stabilize output or debt volatility, then our results suggest substantial reductions can be obtained, especiallynwith respect to output. In stark contrast, however, a formal general equilibrium welfare assessment of the volatility implications of thesenalternative instrument/target combinations reveals the welfare gains from active policy, measured as a share of consumption, to be verynmodest.

Applying stochastic frontier analysis, we estimate the importance of sports in society as technical efficiency of countries in the production ofnOlympic success since the 1950s. Our measures of success are medal shares and a broader concept including Olympic diplomas. Following Bernard andnBusse (2004), population and GDP are used as inputs. While the impact of GDP is always positive, we show that the sign of the population effect depends on wealth and population size of a country.nThe results show that the spread of importance is very wide over time, across countries, gender, and sports. These differences can be seen asncaused by differences in financial support, training methods, organization, or culture. Using the method proposed by Battese and Coelli (1995), we confirm the result well documented in the literature that planned economies and host countries are more successful than others in terms of Olympic successn(e.g. Bernard and Busse, 2004). The method allows to shed light on important aspects of recent sport history, such as the consequences of thenbreakdown of the former Soviet Union.

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This paper establishes stylized facts about business cycles in the late 19th century, using spectral analysis techniques which allow an intuitive description and analysis of cyclical structure in economic fluctuations. Analysis of industrial production data for 13 countries permits the following generalizations. In the advanced North Atlantic economies, a fairly regular long cycle with a periodicity of 7–10 years is identified in all countries. This component explains a substantial fraction of overall variation in industrial production. There is some evidence of a less regular, less powerful short cycle of 3–5 years duration. In peripheral economies experience is varied, but it is more often the short cycle that exercises greater influence. The long cycle component is shown to be highly correlated among the core economies, much less so between core and peripheral economies, and least of all among peripheral economies. The long cycle is more highly correlated among countries with important trading ties and those on a metallic monetary standard throughout the period.