Contributions in Merlin

We present a model for the ?-beauty contest that explains common patterns in experimental data of one-shot and iterative games. The approach is based on two basic assumptions. First, players iteratively update their recent guesses. Second, players estimate intervals rather than exact numbers to cope with incomplete knowledge of other players' rationality. Under these assumptions we extend the cognitive hierarchy model of Camerer et al. [Camerer, C., Ho, T., Chong, J., 2003b. A cognitive hierarchy model of one-shot games. Quart. J. Econ. 119, 861–898]. The extended model is estimated on experimental data from a newspaper experiment.

Die Pflicht zur Prüfung der Existenz des IKS betrifft auch etliche mittelgrosse Unternehmen. Im Rahmen einer Umfrage haben die Universität Zürich und PwC bei diesen Unternehmen eine Bestandesaufnahme zu Kontroll- und Prüfungsaktivitäten durchgeführt. Die Ergebnisse der Umfrage werden präsentiert.

This paper considers the problem of testing s null hypotheses simultaneously while controlling the false discovery rate (FDR). Benjamini and Hochberg (1995) provide a method for controlling the FDR based on p-values for each of the null hypotheses under the assumption that the p-values are independent. Subsequent research has since shown that this procedure is valid under weaker assumptions on the joint distribution of the p-values. Related procedures that are valid under no assumptions on the joint distribution of the p-values have also been developed. None of these procedures, however, incorporate information about the dependence structure of the test statistics. This paper develops methods for control of the FDR under weak assumptions that incorporate such information and, by doing so, are better able to detect false null hypotheses. We illustrate this property via a simulation study and two empirical applications. In particular, the bootstrap method is competitive with methods that require independence if independence holds, but it outperforms these methods under dependence.

The neurophysiology of eye movements has been studied extensively, and several computational models have been proposed for decision-making processes that underlie the generation of eye movements towards a visual stimulus in a situation of uncertainty. One class of models, known as linear rise-to-threshold models, provides an economical, yet broadly applicable, explanation for the observed variability in the latency between the onset of a peripheral visual target and the saccade towards it. So far, however, these models do not account for the dynamics of learning across a sequence of stimuli, and they do not apply to situations in which subjects are exposed to events with conditional probabilities. In this methodological paper, we extend the class of linear rise-to-threshold models to address these limitations. Specifically, we reformulate previous models in terms of a generative, hierarchical model, by combining two separate sub-models that account for the interplay between learning of target locations across trials and the decision-making process within trials. We derive a maximum-likelihood scheme for parameter estimation as well as model comparison on the basis of log likelihood ratios. The utility of the integrated model is demonstrated by applying it to empirical saccade data acquired from three healthy subjects. Model comparison is used (i) to show that eye movements do not only reflect marginal but also conditional probabilities of target locations, and (ii) to reveal subject-specific learning profiles over trials. These individual learning profiles are sufficiently distinct that test samples can be successfully mapped onto the correct subject by a naïve Bayes classifier. Altogether, our approach extends the class of linear rise-to-threshold models of saccadic decision making, overcomes some of their previous limitations, and enables statistical inference both about learning of target locations across trials and the decision-making process within trials.

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Biometry is a very interesting market since it has grown steadily in the past five years. Several studies show that this will remain the case for the next couple of years. This trend has been recognised not only by big companies, but also by smaller ones which are just starting their business. And as is the case for every startup, young enterprises need a marketing concept which enables them to compete against bigger competitors. This thesis analyses theoretical concepts around marketing as well as biometry. The biometric market as a whole with a focus on Switzerland is analysed and opportunities and threats for new companies entering this area are identified. These theoretical foundations are applied to a startup company which has been developing a biometric middleware for two years and is now entering the biometric market in Switzerland. In this scenario, a marketing mix is presented with a special focus on the promotional side, consisting of a new corporate design. Concluded is this thesis by presenting common problems of young enterprises in Switzerland, software companies in general and in biometry. These findings are combined such that the most important obstacles for a young biometric company in Switzerland can be shown.

Simulating regeneration may help to better understand natural systems and to include such capabilities in future, more autonomous and robust machines and robots. A framework of tools to simulate Artificial Ontogeny, including (a) the parsing of the genome, (b) the development of simple organisms and (c) their evolution has been implemented. The framework gets applied to evolve organisms that can preserve their shape and regenerate injured parts. Statistics about their evolution, their development and their genetic regulatory networks are compared between different initial conditions and random genomes. Longer genomes are better able to keep their shape, but no significant differences were found in cyclicity and motif distribution between successful organisms and random genomes. However, regenerating organisms tend to show emergent cell differentiation.

In the last few years the travel industry has changed deeply. In the context to the research on Ñthe travel agency of the futureì, a Smartboard advisory system has been developed. The aim of this advisory system is to shift the traditional travel agency in a cooperative experience area. In this work, the usage capabilities of this advisory system for co-worker training are to be examined. This training encloses on the one hand the multimedia supported self-improvement of product- and destination-knowing as well as a preparation on a personal computer for the cooperative consulting situation at the Smartboard. Constructing on the analysis of learning behavior of the travel advisors a web-based training prototype is developed, which connects the advantages of an explorative E-Learning application with the requirements to a cooperative consulting system. Finally a training concept for the Smartboard consultation has been tested with travel agency trainees.

In any given year, the Federal Communications Commission confronts many issues of interest to economists. This paper summarizes four issues of interest during the last year: Spectrum Auctions, Media Ownership, Quality-Adjusted Cable Prices, and Leased Access. It highlights the role that economic analysis played in each and identifies areas where further research would be fruitful.