Alexandra de Gendre, Jan Feld, Nicolás Salamanca, Ulf Zölitz, Same-sex role model effects in education, In: URPP Equality of Opportunity Discussion Paper Series, No. 30, 2023. (Working Paper)
We study same-sex role model effects of teachers with a meta-analysis and our own study of three million students in 90 countries. Both approaches show that role model effects on performance are, on average, small: 0.030 SD in the meta-analysis and 0.015 SD in our multi-country study. Going beyond test scores, our multi-country study documents larger average role model effects on job preferences (0.063 SD). To understand the universality of these effects, we estimate the distributions of country-level same-sex role model effects. Although role model effects on test scores appear universally small, we find substantial cross-country variation for job preferences, with larger effects in countries with larger gender gaps. These results are consistent with role models inspiring students to overcome gender stereotypes and pursue a STEM career. However, in countries with negligible gender gaps, role models do not seem to have this equalizing function. |
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Vincent Arel-Bundock, Loriana Crasnic, Indra Römgens, Aanor Roland, The EU and the politics of blacklisting tax havens, In: URPP Equality of Opportunity Discussion Paper Series, No. 27, 2023. (Working Paper)
Blacklisting is a widespread and controversial instrument designed to induce tax havens to change their domestic policies. Since the Global Financial Crisis, several international organizations like the OECD and the EU have published tax haven blacklists, but these lists have been widely criticized as a flawed policy tool. In this paper, we use a mixed methods approach to explore the political rationale behind the establishment of the EU blacklist, and the causal mechanisms through which the list was expected to exert influence over governments in tax havens. First, we draw on process-tracing and expert interviews to establish that the list was less designed as an effective policy tool to induce compliance with international standards, and more as a political impetus to shape the overall problem definition, strengthen the Commissions bargaining position, and influence public opinion. Second, we conduct a survey experiment in Switzerland to determine if using a blacklist to name-and-shame and threaten economic sanctions can effectively shape public opinion in a low-tax jurisdiction. We find that “naming-and-shaming” and “economic threat” have a statistically significant effect on public opinion in favor of tax reform, but that this effect is modest. |
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Lukas Haffert, Tabea Palmtag, Dominik Schraff, Asymmetric effects of group-based appeals: the case of the urban rural divide, In: URPP Equality of Opportunity Discussion Paper Series, No. 26, 2023. (Working Paper)
Group-based identities are an important basis of political competition. Parties appeal consciously to specific social groups and these group-based appeals often improve the evaluation of parties and candidates. Studying place-based appeals, we advance the understanding of this strategy by distinguishing between dominant and subordinate social groups. Using two survey experiments in Germany and England, we show that group appeals improve candidate evaluation among subordinate (rural) voters. By contrast, appeals to the dominant (urban) group trigger a negative reaction. While urban citizens’ weaker local identities and lower place-based resentment partly explain this asymmetry, they mainly dislike group-based appeals because of their antagonistic nature. If the same policies are framed as benefiting urban and rural dwellers alike, candidate evaluation improves. Thus, people on the dominant side of a group divide reject a framing of politics as antagonistically structured by this divide, even if they identify with the dominant group. |
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Paolo Mengano, Trends in worker bargaining power, In: URPP Equality of Opportunity Discussion Paper Series, No. 25, 2023. (Working Paper)
This paper investigates worker bargaining power evolution over the last decades and its consequences on the American and French labor markets. I use a framework where wages and marginal productivity of labor are linked by a negotiation process, allowing the bargaining power of the parties involved to vary over time. I uncover a sizable disproportion between employees and employers in salary negotiation by estimating an average worker bargaining power of 17% in the U.S. and 25% in France. However, these average estimates mask an aggregate declining trend in both countries since the 90s. Worker bargaining power followed a hump-shaped trend in the U.S. over the last 60 years, peaking in the 80s and then halving until nowadays. In France, it has also been declining steadily over the last 30 years. These patterns help explain the low unemployment and wage growth over the last decades: firms exploited the low level of worker bargaining power to hire an inefficiently high number of employees. I propose marginal wage and profit taxes to restore labor market efficiency. Technological advancement, regulation, trade, and outsourcing seem to play a minor role in the decline of bargaining power. |
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Mathilde Le Moigne, Ralph Ossa, Crumbling economy, booming trade: the surprising resilience of world trade in 2020, In: Kühne Center Impact Series, No. 01-21, 2021. (Working Paper)
How can it be that we experience a historic recession, but international trade is doing just fine? In this Kühne Impact Series, we argue that the COVID-19 recession is one in which non-tradable services suffer but tradable goods thrive. Reasons include that (i) consumption of in-person services is restricted; (ii) demand for consumer durables is strong; (iii) demand for medical goods is high; and (iv) online shopping is popular. |
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Emily J Blanchard, Trade wars in the Global Value Chain era, In: Kühne Center Impact Series, No. 01-20, 2020. (Working Paper)
The rapid proliferation of Global Value Chains (GVCs) has changed the nature of global commerce, and with it, the political contours and economic consequences of trade protection in the 21st century. Trade wars have always been costly, but they are particularity expensive in the GVC era. This article shares insights from recent research in economics, and explains how protectionist policies could backfire. |
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Michael Blanga-Gubbay, EU trade agreements: past, present, and future developments, In: Kühne Center Impact Series, No. 02-20, 2020. (Working Paper)
There has been a sharp increase in regional trade agreements (RTAs) in recent decades, most of which take the form of free trade agreements (FTAs). Not only have RTAs risen in number but they have also become “deeper” over time, encompassing provisions that go beyond tariff reductions and traditional trade policies. These “new generations” FTAs pose a challenge for EU trade policy, since the EU’s ability of covering trade and investment policies in one single comprehensive economic agreement has been crippled in the aftermath of the chaos surrounding the CETA agreement. In addition, Europe is experiencing an increasing opposition towards globalization, with protests all around the continent against “deep” trade agreements, and the influence of powerful multinational corporations in determining their content. In view of these new challenges of globalization, this article analyzes the European Union’s ability to ratify deep and comprehensive free trade agreements. |
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Mathilde Le Moigne, Pandemic and trade: the dynamics of global trade in times of Corona, In: Kühne Center Impact Series, No. 03-20, 2020. (Working Paper)
The Covid-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented economic shock, insofar as it cumulates the effect of both a demand and a supply shock on the aggregate economy, as well as an unprecedented increase in trading costs. In response to this shock, global trade has declined by approximately 30% in the course of the first six months of 2020, but the subsequent rebound of trade volumes during the summer suggests a quick recovery of international exchanges. A detailed analysis of the times series across countries and sectors reveals the magnifying effects of sanitary measures and export restrictions on the effect of the pandemic on global trade. The absence of a significant decline in trade of essential goods and in particular of medical goods is nonetheless cause for optimism, as it illustrates the resilience of global trade relations. |
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Michael Blanga-Gubbay, Roza Khoban, The EU Emissions Trading System: becoming efficient, In: Kühne Center Impact Series, No. 02-22, 2022. (Working Paper)
This Kühne Impact Series focuses on the EU Emissions Trading System, a cornerstone of the European Green Deal and Europe’s attempt to reach climate neutrality by 2050.1 We discuss how the system has been developed, creates a price on carbon, and the efficiency of the allocation of emissions allowances. Moreover, we analyze the evolution of the EU ETS prices and discuss the recent substantial volatility in the price of the carbon permits. The experience with the EU ETS has been mixed. However, we believe that recent and expected developments will make the system more resilient and reliable – and can ensure a credible and efficient path to carbon neutrality. |
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Michael Blanga-Gubbay, Mathilde Le Moigne, Global trade: a future in doubt?, In: Kühne Center Impact Series, No. 03-22, 2022. (Working Paper)
Talks of “deglobalization” or “slowbalization” have multiplied in the aftermath of the Great Trade Collapse of 2008/2009. The recent economic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have re-ignited fears of global value chain disruptions, and lead many in international trade to claim the end of globalization as we know it. In this Kühne Impact Series we examine these facts and find that while few statistics point towards a slowdown in global trade, looking at the broad picture we can still be cautiously optimistic. More concerns arise, instead, when looking at the policy landscape. |
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Mathilde Le Moigne, Luca Poll, The hidden green sourcing potential in European trade, In: Kühne Center Impact Series, No. 01-22, 2022. (Working Paper)
In this Kühne Impact Series, we substantiate our claim that international trade should play a central role in the fight against climate change. The key message is that “buying green” does not necessarily mean “buying local” and that a smart combination of local and foreign sourcing yields the best results. To this end, we construct an exhaustive database on the greenhouse gas emissions related to international trade flows from and to the European Union. Our first main result is that 28% of European trade flows are already green in the sense of bringing about a net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions relative to domestic sourcing. Our second main result is that a simple green sourcing rule could reduce trade-related emissions by 35%. Hence, there is a substantial green sourcing potential remaining in European trade. |
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Michael Blanga-Gubbay, Africa’s trade potential: escaping the colonial past by building a self-sustaining future, In: Kühne Center Impact Series, No. 04-21, 2021. (Working Paper)
Africa accounts today for 17% of the world’s population, but less than 3% of global GDP. With a fast-growing population, the continent is projected to reach 4.3 billion inhabitants (39% of the world’s total) by the end of the century. This big domestic market could represent a significant opportunity, but the economy of the continent is not growing at the same pace. In fact, Africa is still struggling to overcome its colonial past, and to gain from its current (new-colonial) dependency from China. The consequences of this can be seen in the extremely low share of intra-African trade and the underdeveloped within-continent infrastructure network. The newly implemented African Continent Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could prove to be a pivotal step forward, paving the way for self-sustaining economic growth and long-lasting social and geo-political stability on the African continent. |
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Michael Blanga-Gubbay, Roza Khoban, The European Green Deal: transforming international trade and transportation, In: Kühne Center Impact Series, No. 06-21, 2021. (Working Paper)
In this Kühne Impact Series, we analyze the effects of the European Green Deal on international trade and transportation. Our main point is that the Green Deal marks a step change in the EU’s climate policy, which will transform European trade and transportation. In particular, by strengthening the EU Emission Trading System and introducing a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, it will increase the carbon price towards its social optimum. This will incentivize households and firms to buy greener products, from greener countries, using greener transportation, and thereby contribute to a more sustainable globalization. In contrast, we believe that the new green agenda in the EU’s trade policy strategy, while ambitious in spirit, is less likely to have concrete effects. |
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Michael Blanga-Gubbay, Ralph Ossa, A new hope for the WTO? Past achievements, current challenges, and planned reforms, In: Kühne Center Impact Series, No. 02-21, 2021. (Working Paper)
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has a new Director General, and we take her appointment as an opportunity to brief the reader on this important international organization. In particular, we (i) explain its past achievements, (ii) discuss its current challenges, and (iii) summarize its planned reforms. |
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Mathilde Le Moigne, Ralph Ossa, Buy green not local: how international trade can help save our planet, In: Kühne Center Impact Series, No. 03-21, 2021. (Working Paper)
In this Kuehne Impact Series, we introduce the Kühne Center’s vision of environmentally sustainable globalization. Our main point is that buying local is not the same as buying green, because international trade can allow firms and households to source products from greener origins. We therefore advocate embracing international trade in the fight against climate change. |
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Lilia Ruslanova, Mathias Hoffmann, Post-COVID19 resilience: lessons from the China Trade Shock for Europeʼs economies, In: Kühne Center Impact Series, No. 05-21, 2021. (Working Paper)
When we talk about the economic consequences of COVID-19, the question arises about the strength and duration of the changes triggered by the pandemic. Currently, all indications are that COVID-19 is likely to change the structure of the world economy permanently. Evidence suggests that the pandemic is a permanent reallocation shock – one that cannot be mitigated with standard fiscal and monetary stimulus. What are the structural reforms and mechanisms that would allow economies to adapt and to effectively reallocate resources in response to such shocks? Which features made economies resilient to major reallocation shocks in the past? To answer these questions, we take a closer look at the China Trade Shock and its impact on the US economy. We then draw lessons for Europe today. |
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Alex Mari, Andreina Mandelli, René Algesheimer, Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) on Emerging Technology: Biased and Unbiased Adoption Decision Making, In: UZH Business Working Paper Series Working Paper, No. 401, 2024. (Working Paper)
Corporate decision-makers (DMs) are increasingly being challenged to adopt emerging technologies with undefined market potential while being susceptible to biases. Failure to achieve the expected benefits may affect collective and individual-level performance. Fear of missing out (FOMO) influences the ability to make rational decisions. Although FOMO can lead DMs to prioritize popular but immature technologies, there remains a limited understanding of the notion in organizational settings. Drawing on semi-structured interviews and archival data corroborated by insights from key stakeholders, our research investigates the role of FOMO when adopting emerging technology. Findings reveal that FOMO (i) is experienced by DMs experience in one of three performance levels (firm, team, employee), each differentiated by specific targets and responses, and (ii) influences the decision process both directly and via inflated expected outcomes. The mere presence of FOMO does not constitute a bias in the decision. Further, we suggest how to regulate FOMO in organizations. |
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Jonathan L Payne, Adam Rebei, Yucheng Yang, Deep Learning for Search and Matching Models, In: SSRN, No. 4768566, 2024. (Working Paper)
We develop a new method for characterizing global solutions to search and matching models with aggregate shocks and heterogeneous agents. We formulate general equilibrium as a high dimensional partial differential equation (PDE) with the distribution as a state variable. Solving this problem has previously been intractable because the distribution impacts agent decisions through the matching mechanism rather than through aggregate prices. We overcome these challenges by developing a new deep learning algorithm with efficient sampling in a high dimensional state space. This allows us to study search markets that are not “block recursive”. In applications to labor search models, we show that while block recursivity may approximately hold under symmetric shocks, it fails to capture the dynamics when shocks have an asymmetric impact. Business cycles have a “cleansing” effect by amplifying positive assortative matching in recessions, and the magnitude of the countercyclicality depends on the bargaining process between workers and firms. |
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