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Contribution Details

Type Journal Article
Scope Discipline-based scholarship
Title Analysis of testing‐based forward model selection
Organization Unit
Authors
  • Damian Kozbur
Item Subtype Original Work
Refereed Yes
Status Published in final form
Language
  • English
Journal Title Econometrica
Publisher Econometric Society
Geographical Reach international
ISSN 0012-9682
Volume 88
Number 5
Page Range 2147 - 2173
Date 2020
Abstract Text This paper analyzes a procedure called Testing‐Based Forward Model Selection (TBFMS) in linear regression problems. This procedure inductively selects covariates that add predictive power into a working statistical model before estimating a final regression. The criterion for deciding which covariate to include next and when to stop including covariates is derived from a profile of traditional statistical hypothesis tests. This paper proves probabilistic bounds, which depend on the quality of the tests, for prediction error and the number of selected covariates. As an example, the bounds are then specialized to a case with heteroscedastic data, with tests constructed with the help of Huber–Eicker–White standard errors. Under the assumed regularity conditions, these tests lead to estimation convergence rates matching other common high‐dimensional estimators including Lasso.
Free access at DOI
Digital Object Identifier 10.3982/ecta16273
Other Identification Number merlin-id:19857
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Keywords model selection, forward regression, sparsity, hypothesis testing