Andreas Scherer, Christian Vögtlin, Günter Stahl, Responsible Innovation for Sustainable Development, In: 36th EGOS colloquium . 2020. (Conference Presentation)
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 Hui Liu, Naiding Yang, Zhao Yang, Jianhong Lin, Yanlu Zhang, The impact of firm heterogeneity and awareness in modeling risk propagation on multiplex networks, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Vol. 539, 2020. (Journal Article)
Growing interest has emerged to understand the coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics in multiplex network. However, most previous studies usually assume that all the infected nodes have the same influence on the susceptible neighbors, without considering node’s heterogeneity. In this paper, with the similarity between epidemic spreading and risk propagation, we apply the UAU-SIS model to investigate the interplay between awareness and risk propagation in R&D networks considering firms’ heterogeneity. Here, the risk triggering probabilities are heterogenous and depend on two factors: cooperation intensity and local risk prevalence. The results reveal that the cooperation intensity can increase the risk propagation prevalence and decrease the risk propagation threshold, while the local risk prevalence can only increase the risk propagation prevalence. Moreover, we find that the risk propagation threshold undergoes an abrupt transition with a certain point of the local awareness ratio (the global awareness ratio) ignoring the global awareness (the local awareness ratio), which includes two-stage effects on risk propagation threshold. Furthermore, threshold lies in three different areas when considering both the global and local awareness. These results could provide a basis for managerial professionals to improve the robustness of interdependent R&D networks under risk propagation by taking effective measures. |
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Christoph Basten, Higher Bank Capital Requirements and Mortgage Pricing: Evidence from the Counter-Cyclical Capital Buffer, Review of Finance, Vol. forthcoming, 2020. (Journal Article)
We identify the effects of the Basel III macroprudential tool Counter-Cyclical Capital Buffer on mortgage lending. Using the first dataset on responses from multiple banks to each household, we find no evidence of explicit rationing. But as the CCyB applied only to mortgages, banks with higher mortgage specialization or lower capital cushions raise prices by an extra eight basis points. Bank level data then show that this allows them to slow their mortgage growth and rebuild capital cushions. While market-wide mortgage growth did not slow down significantly, the composition of mortgage suppliers thus moved to previously less exposed banks. |
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Hannah Trittin, Andreas Scherer, Glen Whelan, Iain Munro, Exploring dark and unexpected sides of digitalization: how digital technologies challenge organizations and organizing, Organization, 2020. (Journal Article)
In the past decade, the proliferation of digital technologies such as social media, internet platforms, algorithms, artificial intelligence and ‘big data’ have gained interest from businesses and academic researchers alike. Practitioners and scholars have revealed far-reaching organizational and managerial implications of these new technologies. At the same time many risks have also been identified including matters such as the loss of individual rights and the difficulty of resisting new forms of organizational control; increasing power imbalances between corporations, employees, and customers; the intensification of organizational surveillance; the opacity and biased nature of machine based processes and decisions; and many unexpected externalities that have yet to be explored. With this call for papers, we draw on and extend the emerging critical debate on the economic, ethical, social, and political implications of digitalization. We encourage scholars to critically explore the dark side and unexpected consequences of digitalization, i.e. issues that have (so far) been overlooked, ignored, or suppressed with regards to the impact of digital technologies on organization and organizing. The aim of this call is to span the boundary between multiple disciplines, to fertilize the discourse amongst critical scholars, and to develop the necessary theoretical and empirical groundwork around the implications of digitalization for organizations and organizing processes. |
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Patrick Lehnert, Curdin Pfister, Dietmar Harhoff, Uschi Backes-Gellner, Interdependencies between Different Types of Research Institutions: The Innovation Effect of the Introduction of Universities of Applied Sciences, In: 2nd Research on Innovation, Science and Entrepreneurship (RISE) Workshop. 2019. (Conference Presentation)
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Martin Sterchi, Cristina Sarasua, Rolf Grütter, Abraham Bernstein, Maximizing the Likelihood of Detecting Outbreaks in Temporal Networks, In: The 8th International Conference on Complex Networks and their Applications, springer, Heidelberg, 2019. (Conference or Workshop Paper published in Proceedings)
Epidemic spreading occurs among animals, humans, or computers and causes substantial societal, personal, or economic losses if left undetected. Based on known temporal contact networks, we propose an outbreak detection method that identifies a small set of nodes such that the likelihood of detecting recent outbreaks is maximal. The two-step procedure involves i) simulating spreading scenarios from all possible seed configurations and ii) greedily selecting nodes for monitoring in order to maximize the detection likelihood. We find that the detection likelihood is a submodular set function for which it has been proven that greedy optimization attains at least 63% of the optimal (intractable) solution. The results show that the proposed method detects more outbreaks than benchmark methods suggested recently and is robust against badly chosen parameters. In addition, our method can be used for out- break source detection. A limitation of this method is its heavy use of computational resources. However, for large graphs the method could be easily parallelized. |
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Christian Killer, Bruno Rodrigues, Burkhard Stiller, Threat Management Dashboard for a Blockchain Collaborative Defense, In: Proceedings of the IEEE GLOBECOM Workshop 27th on Blockchain in Telecommunications: Emerging Technologies for the Next Decade and Beyond, IEEE, Waikoloa, USA, 2019. (Conference or Workshop Paper published in Proceedings)
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Erdinc Akyildirim, Shaen Corbet, Cumhur Ekinci, Analysing the dynamic influence of US macroeconomic news releases on Turkish stock markets, Finance Research Letters, Vol. 31, 2019. (Journal Article)
We investigate the effects of macroeconomic announcements made in the United States on trading activity of stocks listed in Borsa Istanbul. The influence of these releases on the selected variables are an important source of information for market participants. Results show a clear negative impact on weighted bid, ask and mid-prices in the five-minute period post-release. Available liquidity measured by pending orders in limit order book decreases with the news arrival. These results present implications for market dynamics and signal that liquidity consumption (through market orders) largely dominates liquidity provision (through limit orders) in the five-minute period following the release. |
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Markus Leippold, Nikola Vasiljevic, Option-Implied Intra-Horizon Value-at-Risk, Management Science, Vol. forthcoming, 2019. (Journal Article)
We study the intra-horizon value at risk (iVaR) in a general jump diffusion setup and propose a new model of asset returns called displaced mixed-exponential model, which can arbitrarily closely approximate finite-activity jump-diffusions and completely monotone Levy processes. We derive analytical results for the iVaR and disentangle the risk contribution of jumps from diffusion. Estimating the iVaR for several popular jump models using on S&P 100 option data, we find that option-implied estimates are much more responsive to market changes relative to their historical counterparts. Moreover, disentangling jumps from diffusion, jump account for about 90 percent of iVaR on average. |
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Micheal Luggen, Djellel Difallah, Cristina Sarasua, Gianluca Demartini, Philippe Cudr\'e-Mauroux, Non-Parametric Class Completeness Estimators for Collaborative Knowledge Graphs — The Case of Wikidata, In: International Semantic Web Conference (ISWC), arXiv, Springer, 2019-10-28. (Conference or Workshop Paper published in Proceedings)
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Romana Pernischova, The Butterfly Effect in Knowledge Graphs: Predicting the Impact of Changes in the Evolving Web of Data, In: Doctoral Consortium at ISWC 2019, s.n., CEUR-WS.org, 2019-10-26. (Conference or Workshop Paper published in Proceedings)
Knowledge graphs (KGs) are at the core of numerous applications and their importance is increasing. Yet, knowledge evolves and so do KGs. PubMed, a search engine that primarily provides access to medical publications, adds an estimated 500'000 new records per year - each having the potential to require updates to a medical KG, like the National Cancer Institute Thesaurus. Depending on the applications that use such a medical KG, some of these updates have possibly wide-ranging impact, while others have only local effects. Estimating the impact of a change ex-ante is highly important, as it might make KG-engineers aware of the consequences of their actions during editing or may be used to highlight the importance of a new fragment of knowledge to be added to the KG for some application. This research description proposes a unified methodology for predicting the impact of changes in evolving KGs and introduces an evaluation framework to assess the quality of these predictions. |
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Romana Pernischova, Daniele Dell' Aglio, Matthiew Horridge, Matthias Baumgartner, Abraham Bernstein, Toward Predicting Impact of Changes in Evolving Knowledge Graphs, In: ISWC 2019 Posters & Demonstrations, s.n., CEUR-WS.org, 2019-10-25. (Conference or Workshop Paper)
The updates on knowledge graphs (KGs) affect the services built on top of them. However, changes are not all the same: some updates drastically change the result of operations based on knowledge graph content; others do not lead to any variation. Estimating the impact of a change ex-ante is highly important, as it might make KG engineers aware of the consequences of their action during KG editing or may be used to highlight the importance of a new fragment of knowledge to be added to the KG for some application.
The main goal of this contribution is to offer a formalization of the problem. Additionally, it presents some preliminary experiments on three different datasets considering embeddings as operation.Results show that the estimation can reach AUCs of 0.85, suggesting the feasibility of this research. |
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Muriel Franco, Bruno Rodrigues, Burkhard Stiller, MENTOR: The Design and Evaluation of a Protection Services Recommender System, In: 15th International Conference on Network and Service Management (CNSM 2019), IEEE, Halifax, Canada, 2019. (Conference or Workshop Paper published in Proceedings)
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Sina Rafati Niya, Sebastian Allemann, Arik Gabay, Burkhard Stiller, TradeMap: A FINMA-compliant Anonymous Management of an End-2-end Trading Market Place, In: 15th International Conference on Network and Service Management CNSM 2019, IEEE, Halifax, Canada, 2019-10-19. (Conference or Workshop Paper published in Proceedings)
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Theresa Gebauer, David Seidl, Participation in strategy formulation: a review and framework from a sensemaking perspective, In: Strategic Management Society (SMS) Annual Conference. 2019. (Conference Presentation)
Participation in strategy formulation has become increasingly popular in practice and theory as it is associated with the pooling of knowledge and interests as well as higher commitment and more coherent action in strategy implementation. Research on this important phenomenon has grown rapidly over the last decade, focusing particularly on extreme forms of participation such as the involvement of bigger crowds through digital platforms. Yet, previous work on participation (e.g. middle management involvement, inter-organizational strategizing) remains in separate literature streams and is lacking integration. Therefore, there is a need for a systematic review and evaluation of existing work. Adopting central sensemaking concepts, we review the literature in terms of how participants’ interests, frame repertoires and power affect their selection of cues and frames during collective strategy formulation. We develop a framework that shows how both sensemaking dynamics as well as possible design options result in a (shared or fragmented) strategic agenda and understanding. On this basis, a concrete research agenda is developed in terms of topics, methodologies, and theories. |
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Alex Wehnert, Thorsten Hens, Was an Börsenweisheiten wirklich dran ist, In: NZZ, 18 October 2019. (Media Coverage)
Aphorismen auf dem Parkett der Aktien und Indizes können ein guter Leitfaden sein - manche aber sollten Investoren lieber meiden. Alex Wehnert der Kanonendonner kündigt den perfekten Zeitpnkt zum Aktienkauf an. So will es zumindest eine gängige Börsenweisheit: Laut dem Spruch "Buy on the sounds ... |
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Sarah Murray, Falko Paetzold, Rich millennials push to put family wealth into impact investments, In: Financial Times, 17 October 2019. (Media Coverage)
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Felix Kübler, Existence (and computation) of Self-Justified Equilibria in Stochastic OLG Models, In: Workshop on General Equilibrium: Theory and Applications. 2019. (Conference Presentation)
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Felix Holzmeister, Jürgen Huber, Michael Kirchler, Florian Lindner, Utz Weitzel, Stefan Zeisberger, What Drives Risk Perception? A Global Survey with Financial Professionals and Lay People, Management Science, Vol. forthcoming, 2019. (Journal Article)
isk is an integral part of many economic decisions, and is vitally important in finance. Despite extensive research on decision-making under risk, little is known about how risks are actually perceived by financial professionals, the key players in global financial markets. In a large-scale survey experiment with 2,213 finance professionals and 4,559 lay people in nine countries representing ~50% of the world's population and more than 60% of the world's gross domestic product, we expose participants to return distributions with equal expected return and we systematically vary the distributions' next three higher moments. Of these, skewness is the only moment that systematically affects financial professionals' perception of financial risk. Strikingly, variance does not influence risk perception, even though return volatility is the most common risk measure in finance in both academia and the industry. When testing other, compound risk measures, the probability to experience losses is the strongest predictor of what is perceived as being risky. Analyzing professionals' propensity to invest, skewness and loss probability have strong predictive power too. However, volatility and kurtosis also have some additional effect on participants' willingness to invest. Our results are very similar for lay people, and they are robust across and within countries with different cultural backgrounds as well as for different job fields of professionals. |
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Eryk Jerzy Schiller, Sina Rafati Niya, Timo Surbeck, Burkhard Stiller, Scalable Transport Mechanisms for Blockchain IoT Applications, In: 44th IEEE Conference on Local Computer Networks (LCN 2019), IEEE, Piscataway, New Jersey, US, 2019-10-14. (Conference or Workshop Paper published in Proceedings)
This paper studies various methods that improve the performance of Blockchain systems integrated with the Internet of Things (BIoT) using the LoRaWAN access method. Duty Cycle Enforcement (DCE) and Listen Before Talk (LBT) mechanisms as the channel access methods, Automatic Repeat reQuest (ARQ) on the Transport Layer, and transaction aggregation on the Application Layer are evaluated. The main focus is put on the system performance studying the maximal number of transactions submitted, reliability of transport schemes, and the energy efficiency of the BIoT system. The combination of LBT-based MAC, the ARQ-enabled Transport Layer, and transaction aggregation at the Application Layer provides a good trade-off between submitted transaction count, packet loss, and energy efficiency. The proposed scheme complies to the data integrity demands of BIoT applications by specifying a reliable data transmission scheme from IoT devices to the BC. |
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