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Contribution Details

Type Journal Article
Scope Discipline-based scholarship
Title Using financial markets to analyze history: the case of the second World War
Other Titles Vom Nutzen der Analyse von Finanzmärkten für die Geschichtswissenschaft. Eine Untersuchung anhand des 2. Weltkrieges
Organization Unit
Authors
  • Bruno Frey
  • Daniel Waldenström
Item Subtype Original Work
Refereed Yes
Status Published in final form
Language
  • English
Journal Title Historical Social Research
Publisher Zentrum für Historische Sozialforschung
Geographical Reach international
ISSN 0172-6404
Volume 32
Number 4
Page Range 330 - 350
Date 2007
Abstract Text A central aspect of historical research is to provide explanations for the causes and effects of events that occurred in the past, in particular the Second World War. History can be analyzed and explained from different perspectives. Two such perspectives are considered, the first being the traditional historiographic approach, in which the main emphasis is on the qualitative analysis of various kinds of historical sources and documents, and the second being what we call the financial market approach, a recent methodology for linking significant changes in historical market prices to simultaneously occurring geopolitical events. The fundamental characteristics of the two approaches are identified and compared in answering some important historical questions concerning the Second World War. The financial market approach, as reflected in the secondary market for government bonds, is studied for various countries. Both approaches rely heavily on interpretation – but in different ways. They complement each other in a useful way.
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