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Contribution Details

Type Bachelor's Thesis
Scope Discipline-based scholarship
Title Cyclical relative performance of active management based on US equity mutual funds
Organization Unit
Authors
  • Bräm Elias Nicholas
Supervisors
  • Thorsten Hens
Language
  • English
Institution University of Zurich
Faculty Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics
Number of Pages 29
Date 2018
Zusammenfassung This thesis investigates the problem of timing investments in actively managed equity mutual funds. I show that there are cycles in fund outperformance relative to their benchmark, which exhibit a long-term reversal pattern. Furthermore, I identify potential predictors for this outperformance, some of which exhibit strong forecasting significance over different future return horizons. The variables are based on stock return dispersion, mean-variance implied expectations as well as fund flows. With very few inconclusive exceptions, this predictability does not hold up in out-of-sample tests. Finally, I perform a similar analysis for the mutual fund outperformance disaggregated by fund investment style, such as value or growth, and find similar results.
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