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Contribution Details
Type | Bachelor's Thesis |
Scope | Discipline-based scholarship |
Title | Cyclical relative performance of active management based on US equity mutual funds |
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Institution | University of Zurich |
Faculty | Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics |
Number of Pages | 29 |
Date | 2018 |
Zusammenfassung | This thesis investigates the problem of timing investments in actively managed equity mutual funds. I show that there are cycles in fund outperformance relative to their benchmark, which exhibit a long-term reversal pattern. Furthermore, I identify potential predictors for this outperformance, some of which exhibit strong forecasting significance over different future return horizons. The variables are based on stock return dispersion, mean-variance implied expectations as well as fund flows. With very few inconclusive exceptions, this predictability does not hold up in out-of-sample tests. Finally, I perform a similar analysis for the mutual fund outperformance disaggregated by fund investment style, such as value or growth, and find similar results. |
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