Sven Eckhardt, Merlin Knaeble, Andreas Bucher, Dario Staehelin, Mateusz Dolata, Doris Agotai, Gerhard Schwabe, “Garbage In, Garbage Out”: Mitigating Human Biases in Data Entry by Means of Artificial Intelligence, In: IFIP Conference on Human-Computer Interaction, Springer, Cham, Switzerland, 2023. (Conference or Workshop Paper published in Proceedings)
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Sven Eckhardt, Merlin Knaeble, Andreas Bucher, Dario Staehelin, Mateusz Dolata, Doris Agotai, Gerhard Schwabe, “Garbage In, Garbage Out”: Mitigating Human Biases in Data Entry by Means of Artificial Intelligence, In: INTERACT 2023 19th IFIP TC13 International Conference, Springer, 2023. (Conference or Workshop Paper published in Proceedings)
Current HCI research often focuses on mitigating algorithmic biases. While such algorithmic fairness during model training is worthwhile, we see fit to mitigate human cognitive biases earlier, namely during data entry. We developed a conversational agent with voice-based data entry and visualization to support financial consultations, which are human-human settings with information asymmetries. In a pre-study, we reveal data-entry biases in advisors by a quantitative analysis of 5 advisors consulting 15 clients in total. Our main study evaluates the conversational agent with 12 advisors and 24 clients. A thematic analysis of interviews shows that advisors introduce biases by “feeling” and “forgetting” data. Additionally, the conversational agent makes financial consultations more transparent and automates data entry. These findings may be transferred to various dyads, such as doctor visits. Finally, we stress that AI not only poses a risk of becoming a mirror of human biases but also has the potential to intervene in the early stages of data entry. |
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Heiko Pohl, Peter S Sandor, Marius Moisa, Christian Ruff, Jean Schoenen, Roger Luechinger, Ruth O'Gorman, Franz Riederer, Andreas R Gantenbein, Lars Michels, Occipital transcranial direct current stimulation in episodic migraine patients: effect on cerebral perfusion, Scientific Reports, Vol. 13 (1), 2023. (Journal Article)
Cerebral blood flow differs between migraine patients and healthy controls during attack and the interictal period. This study compares the brain perfusion of episodic migraine patients and healthy controls and investigates the influence of anodal transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) over the occipital cortex. We included healthy adult controls and episodic migraineurs. After a 28-day baseline period and the baseline visit, migraine patients received daily active or sham anodal tDCS over the occipital lobe for 28 days. All participants underwent a MRI scan at baseline; migraineurs were also scanned shortly after the stimulation period and about five months later. At baseline, brain perfusion of migraine patients and controls differed in several areas; among the stimulated areas, perfusion was increased in the cuneus of healthy controls. At the first visit, the active tDCS group had an increased blood flow in regions processing visual stimuli and a decreased perfusion in other areas. Perfusion did not differ at the second follow-up visit. The lower perfusion level in migraineurs in the cuneus indicates a lower preactivation level. Anodal tDCS over the occipital cortex increases perfusion of several areas shortly after the stimulation period, but not 5 months later. An increase in the cortical preactivation level could mediate the transient reduction of the migraine frequency.Trial registration: NCT03237754 (registered at clincicaltrials.gov; full date of first trial registration: 03/08/2017). |
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Tim Human, Markus Leippold, AI tool allows anyone to generate score for sustainability reports, In: Corporate Secretary, 21 August 2023. (Media Coverage)
Team of researchers wants to use tech to expose greenwashing. |
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Enrique Tomás Martínez Beltrán, Pedro Miguel Sánchez Sánchez, Sergio López Bernal, Gérôme Bovet, Manuel Gil Pérez, Gregorio Martínez Pérez, Alberto Huertas Celdran, Fedstellar: A Platform for Training Models in a Privacy-preserving and Decentralized Fashion, In: Thirty-Second International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence {IJCAI-23}, IJCAI, 2023-08-19. (Conference or Workshop Paper published in Proceedings)
This paper presents Fedstellar, a platform for training decentralized Federated Learning (FL) models in heterogeneous topologies in terms of the number of federation participants and their connections. Fedstellar allows users to build custom topologies, enabling them to control the aggregation of model parameters in a decentralized manner. The platform offers a Web application for creating, managing, and connecting nodes to ensure data privacy and provides tools to measure, monitor, and analyze the performance of the nodes. The paper describes the functionalities of Fedstellar and its potential applications. To demonstrate the applicability of the platform, different use cases are presented in which decentralized, semi-decentralized, and centralized architectures are compared in terms of model performance, convergence time, and network overhead when collaboratively classifying hand-written digits using the MNIST dataset. |
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Samira Marti, Isabel Z Martínez, Florian Scheuer, Does a progressive wealth tax reduce top wealth inequality? Evidence from Switzerland, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 39 (3), 2023. (Journal Article)
Like in many other countries, wealth inequality has increased in Switzerland over the last 50 years. By providing new evidence on cantonal top wealth shares for each of the 26 cantons since 1969, we show that the overall trend masks striking differences across cantons, both in levels and trends. Combining this with variation in cantonal wealth taxes, we then estimate an event study model to identify the dynamic effects of reforms to top wealth tax rates on the subsequent evolution of wealth concentration. Our results imply that a reduction in the top marginal wealth tax rate by 0.1 percentage points increases the top 1 per cent (0.1 per cent) wealth share by 0.9 (1.2) percentage points 5 years after the reform. This suggests that wealth tax cuts over the last 50 years explain roughly 18 per cent (25 per cent) of the increase in wealth concentration among the top 1 per cent (0.1 per cent). |
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Achiel Fenneman, Dirk-Jan Janssen, Sven Nolte, Stefan Zeisberger, Nomen est omen? How and when company name fluency affects return expectations, PLoS ONE, Vol. 18 (8), 2023. (Journal Article)
Investors perceive stocks of companies with fluent names as more profitable. This perception may result from two different channels: a direct, non-deliberate affect toward fluent names or a deliberate interpretation of fluent names as a signal for company quality. We use preregistered experiments to disentangle these channels and test their limitations. Our results indicate the existence of a significant non-deliberate fluency effect, while the deliberate fluency effect can be activated and deactivated in boundary cases. Both effects are consistent across different groups of participants. However, whereas the fluency effect is strong in isolation, it has limitations when investors are confronted with additional information about the stock. |
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Fabio Braggion, Felix Von Meyerinck, Nic Schaub, Michael Weber, The Long-term Effects of Inflation on Inflation Expectations, Becker Friedman Institute, Chicago, https://bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/research-summary/the-long-term-effects-of-inflation-on-inflation-expectations/, 2023-08-15. (Scientific Publication In Electronic Form)
German households living in areas with higher local inflation during the hyperinflation of the 1920s expect higher inflation today, suggesting that inflationary shocks have a long-lasting impact on attitudes toward inflation. |
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Christoph Basten, Ragnar Juelsrud, Cross-Selling in Bank-Household Relationships: Mechanisms and Implications for Pricing, Review of Financial Studies, 2023. (Journal Article)
We show that banks cross-sell future deposits and loans to existing household depositors. A bank is 20-percentage-points more likely to sell a loan to an existing depositor than to an otherwise comparable household. Existing depositors pay a premium when borrowing, and we find no indication that banks obtain an informational advantage on such borrowers, suggesting that the cross-selling is driven more by demand than by supply complementarities. These demand complementarities are in turn driven more by stickiness rather than by unobserved persistent preferences. Finally, banks internalize future cross-selling potential when setting deposit rates. |
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Stephan Nebe, Mario Reutter, Daniel H Baker, Jens Bölte, Gregor Domes, Matthias Gamer, Anne Gärtner, Carsten Gießing, Caroline Gurr, Kirsten Hilger, Philippe Jawinski, Louisa Kulke, Alexander Lischke, Sebastian Markett, Maria Meier, Christian J Merz, Tzvetan Popov, Lara M C Puhlmann, Daniel S Quintana, Tim Schäfer, Anna-Lena Schubert, Matthias F J Sperl, Antonia Vehlen, Tina B Lonsdorf, Gordon B Feld, Enhancing precision in human neuroscience, eLife, Vol. 12, 2023. (Journal Article)
Human neuroscience has always been pushing the boundary of what is measurable. During the last decade, concerns about statistical power and replicability - in science in general, but also specifically in human neuroscience - have fueled an extensive debate. One important insight from this discourse is the need for larger samples, which naturally increases statistical power. An alternative is to increase the precision of measurements, which is the focus of this review. This option is often overlooked, even though statistical power benefits from increasing precision as much as from increasing sample size. Nonetheless, precision has always been at the heart of good scientific practice in human neuroscience, with researchers relying on lab traditions or rules of thumb to ensure sufficient precision for their studies. In this review, we encourage a more systematic approach to precision. We start by introducing measurement precision and its importance for well-powered studies in human neuroscience. Then, determinants for precision in a range of neuroscientific methods (MRI, M/EEG, EDA, Eye-Tracking, and Endocrinology) are elaborated. We end by discussing how a more systematic evaluation of precision and the application of respective insights can lead to an increase in reproducibility in human neuroscience. |
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Adilla Böhmer-Mzee, Lizeth Fuentes Perez, Renato Pajarola, Automatic Architectural Floorplan Reconstruction, In: SIGGRAPH '23: ACM SIGGRAPH 2023 Posters, ACM Digital library. 2023-08. (Conference Presentation)
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Pirmin Hotz, Fragwürdige Akzente in der Vermögensanlage, In: null, , 3 August 2023. (Newspaper Article)
Der Fokus auf Stock Picking, das Timing des Ein- und Ausstiegs sowie Erzielen einer Überrendite führt in die Irre. Entscheidend ist die richtige Anlagestrategie. |
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Rainer Winkelmann, Neglected heterogeneity, Simpson’s paradox, and the anatomy of least squares, Journal of Econometric Methods, 2023. (Journal Article)
When a sample combines data from two or more groups, multivariate regression yields a matrix-weighted average of the group-specific coefficient vectors. However, it is possible that the weighted average of a specific coefficient falls outside the range of the group-specific coefficients, and it may even have a different sign compared to both group-level coefficients, a manifestation of Simpson’s paradox. The result of the combined regression is then prone to misinterpretation. The purpose of this paper is to raise awareness of this problem and to state conditions under which such non-convex weighting or sign reversal can arise, for a model with two regressors and two groups. Two illustrative examples, an investment equation estimated with panel data, and a cross-sectional earnings equation for men and women, highlight the relevance of these findings for applied work. |
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Vichhay Ok, Design and Implementation of a Reproducible and Realistic Data Collection System for Dynamic Malware Analysis, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Bachelor's Thesis)
This thesis addresses the need for improved tools in dynamic malware analysis by enhancing the existing SecBox platform; a lightweight, container-based malware analysis sandbox. The enhancements aim at ensuring accurate, consistent, and reproducible analysis of diverse malware types. The thesis delves into the principles of dynamic malware analysis and what constitutes reproducibility, enabling an in-depth understanding of the problem space. The enhanced SecBox platform includes a command recorder to meticulously record and replicate commands and a CSV generator to monitor system metrics like CPU and RAM usage. Through evaluations with four types of malware, one of which was a custom script, the revamped SecBox platform demonstrated high consistency across sandbox instances, underscoring its usefulness in reproducible dynamic malware analysis. |
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Larissa Senning, Building a Visual Analytics Tool for Understanding Machine Learning Models in Non-technical Domains, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Bachelor's Thesis)
Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming increasingly important as the amount of digital data grows. However, AI systems are often opaque and perceived as black boxes, which has a negative impact on user acceptance and trust. We see this in healthcare, where despite the great potential of AI, a lack of understanding and trust has held back physicians from adopting it. One way to address these issues is through Explainable AI (XAI), which focuses on understanding and interpreting AI behavior. In this thesis, we want to contribute to XAI by developing a visual analytics system called VisAIExplorer. We want to find out how an interactive visual analytics system can be designed to explain machine learning models to novice machine learning users, and what types of visualizations within the system can help to build understanding. The goal of VisAIExplorer is to explain the two models, logistic regression and hierarchical clustering, to novice machine learning users by providing various visualizations and support throughout the work process. The machine learning models are trained on a medical dataset about strokes, as healthcare professionals could benefit from a better understanding and increased trust in AI systems. By improving transparency and user support, VisAIExplorer aims to overcome the limitations of existing AI tools and promote more explainability in AI. The thesis includes a literature review, system development, evaluation, and suggestions for future improvements. |
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Lennart Lou Jung, Variation in the Decision Quality of Professional Footballers; The influence of market value, match importance, score, and match duration., University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Master's Thesis)
This thesis explores the influence of external factors on the decision quality of professional football players in shot-taking scenarios. Based on innovative freeze-frame technology, this thesis developed an expected goal model that quantifies decision quality, enabling the analysis of the factors score, time played, competition stage, and market value. The results of this study make a substantial contribution to the field of football analytics, enhancing the understanding of the complexities involved in the dynamics of decision-making.
The methodological approach results in the utilization of the expected goal model to evaluate the quality of decisions made during shots in three major tournaments. The outcomes of this investigation reveal correlations between decision quality, the game score, and players’ market value. Notably, a heightened sense of self-confidence, influenced by a favourable game score, reinforces decision-making. Moreover, players with greater market values tend to exhibit superior decision-making skills. However, the study did not yield statistically significant relationships between decision quality and the duration of playtime or the game’s competition stage. Findings offer practical implications for coaches, who can enhance player self-confidence, improving decision-making, and managers who can use market value as an indicator for decision quality.
In conclusion, this thesis advances the field of football analytics by researching how external variables impact the quality of decisions during shot-taking scenarios. The study underscores the role of self-confidence and market value as indicators of effective decisions. Furthermore, this research enriches the understanding of the decision-making processes intrinsic to football, thereby offering insights germane to player development and team management. Additionally, the thesis underscores the possibilities of freeze-frame technology and how, even with limited resources, a robust model for quantifying decision quality can be constructed. Future work should expand the model’s scope and examine more possible factors influencing decision quality. |
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Manu Narayanan, Applying NMT-Adapt to Tulu, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Master's Thesis)
Today, most of the research in neural machine translation (NMT) focuses on 20 of the world’s 7,000 languages. The scarcity of training data is a substantial bottleneck to research in most of the remaining languages. Tulu is one such low-resource language, spoken by fewer than two million people in the southern part of India. To address this limitation, this thesis attempts to develop an NMT model that can translate
between English and Tulu.
The technique used here is inspired by a method called NMT-Adapt, which adapts a translation model trained on a related high-resource language to translate the low-resource language. This is done using only monolingual data in the low-resource language, and a combination of iterative methods including ‘back-translation’ and ‘denoising autoencoding’. The related high-resource language used in this work is
another south Indian language called Kannada, which has abundant training data and is closely related to Tulu. Monolingual Tulu data scraped from articles on the Tulu language Wikipedia was used in combination with an English-Kannada NMT model for achieving the task. This work also introduces a benchmark dataset for Tulu consisting of 1,300 sentences.
The results demonstrate that the model is able to translate Tulu to English reasonably well. Although English to Tulu translation needs improvement, there is no other translation model for translating from English to Tulu for comparison. |
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Yves Meister, Optimization Techniques in Unfolding, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Bachelor's Thesis)
This thesis presents an in-depth exploration of optimization algorithms aimed at addressing the challenging problem of unfolding 3D meshes by removing overlaps from initial unfoldings. Four distinct algorithms were selected for investigation: iterated local search (ILS), stochastic hill climbing (SHC), adaptive step size random search (ASSRS), and adaptive stochastic hill climbing (ASHC). Through implementation and experimentation, the performance of each algorithm was analyzed across varying mesh sizes and complexities. In the course of investigation, it became apparent that ILS struggled to deliver effective and efficient solutions, primarily due to its simplistic approach. ASSRS, a promising concept, faced challenges in its execution, with significant fail rates and a dependence on basic local search strategies. SHC, incorporating randomness to overcome local optima, demonstrated solid performance with success rates exceeding 93\% and competitive runtimes. Notably, ASHC emerged as the standout algorithm, enhancing SHC through adaptive probabilities of making unfavorable moves as overlap counts decrease. ASHC consistently outperformed the other algorithms, showcasing the potential of adaptiveness in computational unfolding. Comparison with related works revealed ASHC's competitive edge, outperforming simulated annealing and performing on par with a genetic algorithm. As a result, this thesis contributes valuable insights into the realm of 3D mesh unfolding optimization, paving the way for future refinements of ASHC and potential advancements in the unfolding of complex 3D structures. |
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Dave Basler, Development and evaluation of a pedagogical conversational agent with personalization abilities and its effect on the communication with employees in the context of a corporate identity training program, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Master's Thesis)
The purpose of this thesis is the development and evaluation of a spoken pedagogical conversational agent (PCA) which can carry out complete telephone calls in the context of a corporate identity (CI) training. The term CI refers the overall self-image of an organization regarding its corporate personality and reflects how an organization is perceived by both internal and external stakeholders. One aspect of the overarching study about CI in public administrations of two German communes is service on the telephone, which aims at giving employees an opportunity to train and improve their skills in different areas such as active listening, issue solving, or de-escalation on the telephone. Besides the implementation of effective telephone exercises, the focus is on the personalization abilities of the PCA such as complete simulated conversations and feedback generation, which is accomplished by making use of recent language models such as the state-of-the-art ChatGPT model by OpenAI. How these models can be used in this organizational context is a relatively new area of study and not much research exists about this yet. Furthermore, the effects of personalization on the users such as social presence and interaction quality is examined. To accomplish this, requirements are established based on an iterative process considering stakeholder input and related work surrounding institutional talk, workplace learning, and conversational agents. Then, the technologies are selected consisting of different components such as speech-to-text and text-to-speech engines. During development a major focus is on prompt engineering which aims at providing optimal instructions for the language model to generate an optimal response. Finally, a functioning PCA is implemented and deployed in a CI training with real employees of two public administrations. Following the training, an evaluation is carried out consisting of different surveys and interviews, which are used in the analysis of the PCA. The results show that a PCA in this context can be personalized in various ways by utilizing novel language models such as ChatGPT. Furthermore, the evidence indicates that the personalization can potentially lead to an increased social presence and higher interaction quality. In a final step, the personalization of the PCA, problematic aspects, and challenges are discussed, resulting in derived design principles. The further development of the PCA can make use of these insights as a foundation regarding different technical and sociotechnical aspects. |
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Uros Dimitrijevic, Adversarial Training for Improved Adversarial Stability in Open-Set Networks, University of Zurich, Faculty of Business, Economics and Informatics, 2023. (Bachelor's Thesis)
Deep neural networks have found great success in various recognition tasks. While their performances speak for themselves, they are still not fully understood. In particular, deep neural networks are susceptible to adversarial attacks. Research has found ways to defend against these
attacks, one of the strategies being adversarial training, where networks are introduced to adversarial samples during training time. Another field where deep neural networks face problems are open-set recognition tasks, where the neural network has to address samples that do not belong to any known class. Some of the approaches addressing this problem incorporate samples, not belonging to any known class, whilst using a specific loss functions like the entropic open-set loss. The question remains if these two problems are somehow related to each other. Prior work suggested that open-set performance can be achieved by utilizing adversarial training. In this thesis we perform adversarial training on different types of loss functions, research these networks for
adversarial stability, and evaluate their open-set recognition performances. |
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