Joseph P Romano, Michael Wolf, Efficient computation of adjusted p-values for resampling-based stepdown multiple testing, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 219, 2016. (Working Paper)
There has been a recent interest in reporting p-values adjusted for resampling-based stepdown multiple testing procedures proposed in Romano and Wolf (2005a,b). The original papers only describe how to carry out multiple testing at a fixed significance level. Computing adjusted p-values instead in an efficient manner is not entirely trivial. Therefore, this paper fills an apparent gap by detailing such an algorithm. |
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Hannes Schwandt, Wealth shocks and health outcomes: evidence from stock market fluctuations, In: CEP Discussion Papers, No. CEPDP1281, 2014. (Working Paper)
Do wealth shocks affect the health of the elderly in developed countries? The economic literature is skeptical about such effects which have so far only been found for poor retirees in poor countries. In this paper I show that wealth shocks also matter for the health of wealthy retirees in the US. I exploit the booms and busts in the US stock market as a natural experiment that generated considerable gains and losses in the wealth of stock-holding retirees. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study I construct wealth shocks as the interaction of stock holdings with stock market changes. These constructed wealth shocks are highly predictive of changes in reported wealth. And they strongly affect health outcomes. A 10% wealth shock leads to an improvement of 2-3% of a standard deviation in physical health, mental health and survival rates. Effects are heterogeneous across physical health conditions, with most pronounced effects for the incidence of high blood pressure, smaller effects for heart problems and no effects for arthritis, diabetes, lung diseases and cancer. The comparison with the cross-sectional relationship of wealth and health suggests that the estimated effects of wealth shocks are larger than the long-run wealth elasticity of health. |
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Jörn-Steffen Pischke, Hannes Schwandt, A cautionary note on using industry affiliation to predict income, In: NBER Working Paper Series, No. 18384, 2012. (Working Paper)
Many literatures investigate the causal impact of income on economic outcomes, for example in the context of intergenerational transmission or well-being and health. Some studies have proposed to use employer wage differentials and in particular industry affiliation as an instrument for income. We demonstrate that industry affiliation is correlated with fixed individual characteristics, specifically parents' education and own height, conditional on the covariates typically controlled for in these studies. These results suggest that there is selection into industries based on unobservables. As a result the exclusion restriction in many IV studies of this type is likely violated. |
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Jean-Michel Benkert, Igor Letina, Georg Nöldeke, Optimal search from multiple distributions with infinite horizon, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 262, 2017. (Working Paper)
With infinite horizon, optimal rules for sequential search from a known distribution feature a constant reservation value that is independent of whether recall of past options is possible. We extend this result to the the case when there are multiple distributions to choose from: it is optimal to sample from the same distribution in every period and to continue searching until a constant reservation value is reached. |
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Björn Bartling, Yagiz Özdemir, The limits to moral erosion in markets: social norms and the replacement excuse, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 263, 2017. (Working Paper)
This paper studies the impact of a key feature of competitive markets on moral behavior: the possibility that a competitor will step in and conclude the deal if a conscientious market actor forgoes a profitable business opportunity for ethical reasons. We study experimentally whether people employ the argument "if I don’t do it, someone else will" to justify taking a narrowly self-interested action. Our data reveal a clear pattern. Subjects do not employ the "replacement excuse" if a social norm exists that classifies the selfish action as immoral. But if no social norm exists, subjects are more inclined to take a selfish action in situations where another subject can otherwise take it. By demonstrating the importance of social norms of moral behavior for limiting the power of the replacement excuse, our paper informs the long-standing debate on the effect of markets on morals. |
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Olivier Ledoit, Michael Wolf, Analytical nonlinear shrinkage of large-dimensional covariance matrices, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 264, 2018. (Working Paper)
This paper establishes the first analytical formula for optimal nonlinear shrinkage of large-dimensional covariance matrices. We achieve this by identifying and mathematically exploiting a deep connection between nonlinear shrinkage and nonparametric estimation of the Hilbert transform of the sample spectral density. Previous nonlinear shrinkage methods were numerical: QuEST requires numerical inversion of a complex equation from random matrix theory whereas NERCOME is based on a sample-splitting scheme. The new analytical approach is more elegant and also has more potential to accommodate future variations or extensions. Immediate benefits are that it is typically 1,000 times faster with the same accuracy, and accommodates covariance matrices of dimension up to 10, 000. The difficult case where the matrix dimension exceeds the sample size is also covered. |
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Hannes Schwandt, Wealth Shocks and health outcomes: evidence from stock market fluctuations, In: CEP Discussion Papers, No. CEPDP1281, 2014. (Working Paper)
Do wealth shocks affect the health of the elderly in developed countries? The economic literature is skeptical about such effects which have so far only been found for poor retirees in poor countries. In this paper I show that wealth shocks also matter for the health of wealthy retirees in the US. I exploit the booms and busts in the US stock market as a natural experiment that generated considerable gains and losses in the wealth of stock-holding retirees.Using data from the Health and Retirement Study I construct wealth shocks as the interaction of stock holdings with stock market changes. These constructed wealth shocks are highly predictive of changes in reported wealth. And they strongly affect health outcomes. A 10% wealth shock leads to an improvement of 2-3% of a standard deviation in physical health, mental health and survival rates. Effects are heterogeneous across physical health conditions, with most pronounced effects for the incidence of high blood pressure, smaller effects for heart problems and no effects for arthritis, diabetes, lung diseases and cancer. The comparison with the cross-sectional relationship of wealth and health suggests that the estimated effects of wealth shocks are larger than the long-run wealth elasticity of health. |
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Christian Ewerhart, Ordinal potentials in smooth games, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 265, 2019. (Working Paper)
In the class of smooth non-cooperative games, exact potential games and weighted potential games are known to admit a convenient characterization in terms of cross-derivatives (Monderer and Shapley, 1996a). However, no analogous characterization is known for ordinal potential games. The present paper derives simple necessary conditions for a smooth game to admit an ordinal potential. First, any ordinal potential game must exhibit pairwise strategic complements or substitutes at any interior equilibrium. Second, in games with more than two players, a condition is obtained on the (modified) Jacobian at any interior equilibrium. Taken together, these conditions are shown to correspond to a local analogue of the Monderer-Shapley condition for weighted potential games. We identify two classes of economic games for which our necessary conditions are also sufficient. |
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Reto Föllmi, Isabel Martínez, Die Verteilung von Einkommen und Vermögen in der Schweiz, In: UBS Center Public Paper Series, No. 6, 2017. (Working Paper)
Das Interesse an der Verteilung von Einkommen und Vermögen ist in jüngster Zeit wieder neu entbrannt. Nicht zuletzt, weil nach vielen Jahren der Stabilität die Ungleichheit in vielen Ländern wieder zunimmt. Auch in der Schweiz geniesst die Frage nach der Einkommens- und Vermögensverteilung in der öffentlichen und politischen Diskussion grosse Aufmerksamkeit. Die Analyse über die letzten 100 Jahre zeigt, dass im Ländervergleich das Niveau der Einkommen und Löhne in der Schweiz hoch ist, die Ungleichheit zwischen Arm und Reich wenig stark ausgeprägt ist und sich die Öffnung der Einkommensschere über die Zeit in engen Grenzen hält. Die Ausnahme bilden die Superreichen, deren Anteile in jüngster Zeit deutlich zugenommen haben. Die relativ egalitäre Primärverteilung der Einkommen und Löhne und die föderale Struktur mit ihrem Steuerwettbewerb führen dazu, dass Bedarf und Ausmass der Umverteilung relativ gering ausfallen. Als Kehrseite der Medaille ist die hohe Stabilität wohl ein Grund dafür, dass die Einkommensmobilität im internationalen Vergleich gering ausfällt. Dafür fällt das Durchschnittsniveau der Einkommen rekordhoch aus. Die gefundenen Aussagen gelten verstärkt für die Vermögen. Diese reagieren viel träger auf Einzelereignisse, weil sie über Jahrzehnte aufgebaut werden. Die anhaltende politische Stabilität und die berechenbare Wirtschaftspolitik haben der Schweiz neben sehr hohen Durchschnittsvermögen eine sehr persistente Vermögensverteilung beschert, womit sie unter Industrieländern eine grosse Ausnahme darstellt. Entsprechend ist die Vermögenskonzentration im internationalen Vergleich sehr hoch. Das Ausmass relativiert sich aber, wenn wir die für die Schweiz wichtigen Pensionskassenvermögen miteinbeziehen. |
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Gregory S. Crawford, Lachlan Deer, Jeremy Smith, Paul Sturgeon, The regulation of public service broadcasters: should there be more advertising on television?, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 268, 2017. (Working Paper)
Increased competition for viewers’ time is threatening the viability of public-service broadcasters (PSBs) around the world. Changing regulations regarding advertising minutes might increase revenues, but little is known about the structure of advertising demand. To address this problem, we collect a unique dataset on monthly impacts (quantities) and prices of UK television channels between 2002 and 2009 to estimate the (inverse) demand for advertising on both public and commercial broadcasters. We find that increasing PSB advertising minutes to the level permitted for non-PSBs would increase PSB and industry revenue by 10.5% and 6.7%. |
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Ernst Fehr, Tony Williams, Social norms, endogenous sorting and the culture of cooperation, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 267, 2018. (Working Paper)
Throughout human history, informal sanctions by peers were ubiquitous and played a key role in the enforcement of social norms and the provision of public goods. However, a considerable body of experimental evidence suggests that informal peer sanctions cause large collateral damage and efficiency costs. This raises the question whether peer sanctioning systems exist that avoid these costs and whether other, more centralized, punishment systems are superior and will be preferred by the people. Here, we show that welfare-enhancing peer sanctioning without much need for costly punishment emerges quickly if we introduce two relevant features of social life into the experiment: (i) subjects can migrate across groups with different sanctioning institutions and (ii) they have the chance to achieve consensus about normatively appropriate behavior. The exogenous removal of the norm consensus opportunity reduces the efficiency of peer punishment and renders centralized sanctioning by an elected judge the dominant institution. However, if given the choice, subjects universally reject peer sanctioning without a norm consensus opportunity – an institution that has hitherto dominated research in this field – in favor of peer sanctioning with a norm consensus opportunity or an equally efficient institution with centralized punishment by an elected judge. Migration opportunities and normative consensus building are key to the quick emergence of an efficient culture of universal cooperation because the more prosocial subjects populate the two efficient institutions first, elect prosocial judges (if institutionally possible), and immediately establish a social norm of high cooperation. This norm appears to guide subjects’ cooperation and punishment choices, including the virtually complete removal of antisocial punishment when judges make the sanctioning decision. |
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Igor Letina, Shuo Liu, Nick Netzer, Delegating performance evaluation, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 266, 2018. (Working Paper)
We study optimal incentive contracts with multiple agents when performance evaluation is delegated to a reviewer. The reviewer may be biased in favor of the agents, but the degree of bias is unknown to the principal. We show that a contest, which is a contract in which the principal determines a set of prizes to be allocated to the agents, is optimal. By using a contest, the principal can commit to sustaining incentives despite the reviewer's potential leniency bias. The optimal effort profile can be uniquely implemented by an all-pay auction with a cap. Our analysis has implications for applications as diverse as the design of worker compensation, the awarding of research grants, and the allocation of foreign aid. |
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Michael D König, Dynamic R&D networks with process and product innovations, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 223, 2016. (Working Paper)
We analyze the endogenous formation of R&D networks, where firms are active in different product markets and can benefit from R&D spillovers form collaborating firms within or across different industries. R&D spillovers help firms to introduce process innovations to lower their production costs. Product innovations introduce an escape-competition effect, through which firms can enter new markets with fewer competitors. We provide a complete equilibrium char- acterization in which both, the network of R&D collaborations as well as the market structure, are endogenously determined. We show that the coevolution of market and network structure matter for the relationship between competition and innovation. Moreover, our model allows us to explain differences in the R&D network structures observed across different industries, and how they are related to different levels of competition in these industries. |
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Bart H H Golsteyn, Arjan Non, Ulf Zölitz, The impact of peer personality on academic achievement, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 269, 2017. (Working Paper)
This paper provides evidence of a novel facet of peer effects by showing how peer personality affects educational achievement. We exploit random assignment of students to university sections and find that students perform better in the presence of more persistent peers and more risk-averse peers. In particular, low-persistence students benefit from highly-persistent peers without devoting additional efforts to studying. However, highly-persistent students are not affected by the persistence of their peers. The personality peer effects that we document are distinct from other observable peer characteristics and suggest that the personality traits of peers causally affect human capital accumulation. |
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Ulf Zölitz, Jan Feld, The effect of peer gender on major choice, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 270, 2018. (Working Paper)
This paper investigates how the peer gender composition in university affects students' major choices and labor market outcomes. Women who are randomly assigned to more female peers become less likely to choose male-dominated majors, they end up in jobs where they work fewer hours and their wage grows at a slower rate. Men become more likely to choose male-dominated majors after having had more female peers, although their labor market outcomes are not affected. Our results suggest that the increasing female university enrolment over recent decades has paradoxically contributed to the occupational segregation among university graduates that persists in today’s labor market. |
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Eva Ranehill, Roberto A. Weber, Gender preference gaps and voting for redistribution, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 271, 2021. (Working Paper)
There is substantial evidence that women tend to support different policies and political candidates than men. Many studies also document gender differences in a variety of important preference dimensions, such as risk-taking, competition and pro-sociality. However, the degree to which differential voting by men and women is related to these gaps in more basic preferences requires an improved understanding. We conduct an experiment in which individuals in small laboratory “societies” repeatedly vote for redistribution policies and engage in production. We find that women vote for more egalitarian redistribution and that this difference persists with experience and in environments with varying degrees of risk. This gender voting gap is accounted for partly by both gender gaps in preferences and by expectations regarding economic circumstances. However, including both these controls in a regression analysis indicates that the latter is the primary driving force. We also observe policy differences between male- and female-controlled groups, though these are substantially smaller than the mean individual differences - a natural consequence of the aggregation of individual.
preferences into collective outcomes. |
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Justin Buffat, Julien Senn, Corruption, norm enforcement and cooperation, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 260, 2018. (Working Paper)
In many societies, the power to punish is granted to a centralized authority. While the punishment of free-riders has been shown to play an important role in the provision of public goods, corruption might strongly disrupt the ability of a centralized authority to foster cooperation. In this paper, we show that cooperation is reduced by 30% if the punishment authority can be bribed. Two concurrent channels lead to this result. First, low contributors use bribery as a way to tame the punishment authority. The punishment authority tends to reciprocate these bribes by assigning fewer punishment points. These low levels of punishment do not suffice to discipline the free-riders, who never raise their contributions. Second, bribery has negative spillovers on high contributors, who get discouraged and gradually decrease their contributions down to the level of low contributors. Overall, our paper highlights a potential peril of centralization: the sensitivity of the punishment authority to bribery. |
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Victoria Baranov, Sonia Bhalotra, Pietro Biroli, Joanna Maselko, Maternal depression,women’s empowerment, and parental investment: evidence from a large randomized control trial, In: IZA Discussion Papers, No. 11187, 2017. (Working Paper)
We evaluate the long-term impact of treating maternal depression on women’s financial empowerment and parenting decisions. We leverage experimental variation induced by a cluster-randomized control trial that provided psychotherapy to perinatally depressed mothers in rural Pakistan. It was one of the largest psychotherapy interventions in the world, and the treatment was highly successful at reducing depression. We locate mothers seven years after the end of the intervention to evaluate its long-run effects. We find that the intervention increased women’s financial empowerment, increasing their control over household spending. Additionally, the intervention increased both time- and monetaryintensive parental investments, with increases in investments tending to favor girls. |
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Gregory S. Crawford, Robin S Lee, Michael Whinston, Ali Yurukoglu, The welfare effects of vertical integration in multichannel television markets, In: CEPR Discussion Papers, No. 11202, 2017. (Working Paper)
We investigate the welfare effects of vertical integration of regional sports networks (RSNs) with programming distributors in U.S. multichannel television markets. Vertical integration can enhance efficiency by reducing double marginalization and increasing carriage of channels, but can also harm welfare due to foreclosure and incentives to raise rivals' costs. We estimate a structural model of viewership, subscription, distributor pricing, and affiliate fee bargaining using a rich dataset on the U.S. cable and satellite television industry (2000-2010). We use these estimates to analyze the impact of simulated vertical mergers and divestitures of RSNs on competition and welfare, and examine the efficacy of regulatory policies introduced by the U.S. Federal Communications Commission to address competition concerns in this industry. |
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Lorenzo Casaburi, Tristan F Reed, Competition in agricultural markets: an experimental approach, In: CEPR Discussion Papers, No. 11985, 2017. (Working Paper)
This paper develops an experimental approach to measure competition among intermediaries in agricultural markets, based on the random allocation of subsidies to traders. We show that, in individual-level randomizations with competitive spillovers, treatment-control differences in prices can inform an intuitive test of the degree of differentiation among firms. In the context of the Sierra Leone cocoa industry, traders compete by providing farmers credit, as well as through prices. Even when accounting for both the price and the credit margin, differentiation among traders is low. By combining the experimental results with quasi-experimental estimates of the pass-through rate, we then estimate market size the effective number of traders competing for farmers' supply and we find it to be substantially larger than the village. These results are consistent with a view of competitive agricultural markets. |
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