Jim Malley, Apostolis Philippopoulos, Ulrich Woitek, To React or Not? Fiscal Policy, Volatility and Welfare in the EU-3, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 312, 2007. (Working Paper)
This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to examine the quantitative macroeconomic implications of counter-ncyclical fiscal policy for France, Germany and the UK. The model incorporates real wage rigidity which is the particular market failurenjustifying policy intervention. We subject the model to productivity shocks and use either government consumption or investment to react to the output gap or the public debt-to-output ratio. If the objectnof fiscal policy is purely to stabilize output or debt volatility, then our results suggest substantial reductions can be obtained, especiallynwith respect to output. In stark contrast, however, a formal general equilibrium welfare assessment of the volatility implications of thesenalternative instrument/target combinations reveals the welfare gains from active policy, measured as a share of consumption, to be verynmodest. |
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Alexander Rathke, Ulrich Woitek, Economics and Olympics: An Efficiency Analysis, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 313, 2007. (Working Paper)
Applying stochastic frontier analysis, we estimate the importance of sports in society as technical efficiency of countries in the production ofnOlympic success since the 1950s. Our measures of success are medal shares and a broader concept including Olympic diplomas. Following Bernard andnBusse (2004), population and GDP are used as inputs. While the impact of GDP is always positive, we show that the sign of the population effect depends on wealth and population size of a country.nThe results show that the spread of importance is very wide over time, across countries, gender, and sports. These differences can be seen asncaused by differences in financial support, training methods, organization, or culture. Using the method proposed by Battese and Coelli (1995), we confirm the result well documented in the literature that planned economies and host countries are more successful than others in terms of Olympic successn(e.g. Bernard and Busse, 2004). The method allows to shed light on important aspects of recent sport history, such as the consequences of thenbreakdown of the former Soviet Union. |
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Pavlo R Blavatskyy, Stochastic Utility Theorem, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 311, 2007. (Working Paper)
This paper analyzes individual decision making under risk. It is assumed that an individualndoes not have a preference relation on the set of risky lotteries. Instead, an individual possesses a probability measure that captures the likelihood of one lottery being chosen over the other. Choice probabilities have a stochastic utility representation if they can benwritten as a non-decreasing function of the difference in expected utilities of the lotteries.nChoice probabilities admit a stochastic utility representation if and only if they are complete, strongly transitive, continuous, independent of common consequences andninterchangeable. Axioms of stochastic utility are consistent with systematic violations of betweenness and a common ratio effect but not with a common consequence effect. Special cases of stochastic utility include the Fechner model of random errors, Luce choice model and a tremble model of Harless and Camerer (1994). |
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Lukas Steinmann, Harry Telser, Peter Zweifel, The Impact of Aging on Future Healthcare Expenditure, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 510, 2006. (Working Paper)
The impact of aging on healthcare expenditure (HCE) has been at the center of a prolonged debate. This paper purports to shed light on several issues. First, it presents new evidence on the relative importance of the two components of HCE that have been distinguished by Zweifel, Felder and Meier (1999), viz. the cost of morbidity and the cost of mortality (their "red herring" hypothesis claims that neglecting the mortality component results in excessive estimates of future growth of HCE). Second, it takes account of recent evidence suggesting that HCE does increase life expectancy, implying that time-to-death is an endogenous determinant of HCE. Third, it investigates the contribution of population aging to the future growth of HCE. For the case of Switzerland, it finds this contribution to be relatively small regardless of whether or not the cost of dying is accounted for, thus qualifying the "red herring" hypothesis. |
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Hans Gersbach, Armin Schmutzler, A Product-Market Theory of Industry-Specific Training, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 610, 2006. (Working Paper)
We develop a product market theory that explains why firms provide their workers with skills that are sufficiently general to be potentially useful for competitors. We consider a model where firms first decide whether to invest in industry-specific human capital, then make wage offers for each others’ trained employees and finally engage in imperfect product market competition. Equilibria with and without training, and multiple equilibria can emerge. If competition is sufficiently soft and returns to the number of trained workers decrease sufficiently, firms may invest in non-specific training if others do the same, because they would otherwise suffer a competitive disadvantage or need to pay high wages in order to attract trained workers. |
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Manuel Oechslin, Foreign Aid, Political Instability, and Economic Growth, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 310, 2006. (Working Paper)
Relying on a simple endogenous growth model, this paper highlights a political instability effect as a potential explanation for why foreign aid is frequently ineffective with respect to economic performance. In the present framework, the role of the state is to fund institutions allowing for ongoing technology adoption and hence long-run growth.nHowever, providing a self-interested government with additional resources to fill a possible ”financing gap” may not result in better institutions. More money in the hands of the regime fuels conflict over the distribution of the funds - and decreases the incumbent regime’s time horizon in office. With a shorter time horizon, it is less attractive to financengood institutions whose returns mainly accrue in the future. Panel data evidence pointsnindeed to a sizable causal effect of foreign aid on political instability in the 1980s and 1990s. |
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Daniel Waldenström, Bruno Frey, Using Markets to Measure Pre-War Threat Assessments: The Nordic Countries facing World War II, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 308, 2006. (Working Paper)
Nordic historians have asserted for a long time that in the Nordic countries only few people, if any, perceived increased threats of war prior to the World War II outbreak. This would explain, and possibly excuse, why their governments did not mobilize their armies until it was too late. This paper questions this established notion by deriving new estimates of widely held war threat assessments from the fluctuations of sovereign market yields collected from all Nordic bond markets at this period. Our results show that the Nordic contemporaries indeed perceived significant war risk increases around the time of major war-related geopolitical events. While these findings hence question some, but not all, of the standard Nordic World War II historiography, they also demonstrate the value of analyzing historical market prices to reassess the often tacit views and opinions of large groups of people in the past. |
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Bruno Frey, Margit Osterloh, Evaluations: Hidden Costs, Questionable Benefits, and Superior Alternatives, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 302, 2006. (Working Paper)
Research evaluation is praised as the symbol of modern quality management. We claim firstly, performance evaluations in research have higher costs than normally assumed, because the evaluated persons and institutions systematically change their behavior andndevelop counter strategies. Moreover, intrinsic work motivation is crowded out and undesired lock-in effects take place. Secondly, the benefits of performance evaluations are questionable.nEvaluations provide too little information relevant for decision-making. In addition, they losenimportance due to new forms of scientific cooperation on the internet. Thirdly, there existnsuperior alternatives. They consist in careful selection and supportive process coaching – and then leave individuals and research institutions to direct themselves. |
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Bruno Frey, Matthias Benz, Being Independent is a Great Thing: Subjective Evaluations of Self-Employment and Hierarchy, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 135, 2006. (Working Paper)
One can be independent, or subject to decisions made by others. This paper argues that this difference, embodied in the institutional difference between the decisionmaking procedures “market” and “hierarchy”, affects individual well-being beyond outcomes. Taking self-employment as an important case of independence, it is shown that the self-employed derive higher satisfaction from work than people employed innorganizations, irrespective of income gained or hours worked. This is evidence for procedural utility: people do not only value outcomes, but also the processes leading to outcomes. |
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Matthias Benz, Entrepreneurship as a non-profit-seeking activity, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 243, 2006. (Working Paper)
It is typically assumed that people engage in entrepreneurship because there are profits to be made. In contrast to this view, this paper argues that entrepreneurship is more adequately characterized as a non-profit-seeking activity. Evidence from a broad range of authors and academic fields is discussed showing that entrepreneurship does quite generally not pay in monetary terms. Being an entrepreneur seems to be rather rewarding because it entails substantialnnon-monetary benefits, like greater autonomy, broader skill utilization, and the possibility to pursue one’s own ideas. It is shown how incorporating these non-monetary benefits intoneconomic models of entrepreneurship can lead to a better understanding of the phenomenon. |
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Anke Gerber, Learning in and about Games, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 234, 2006. (Working Paper)
We study finitely repeated 2 / 2 normal form games, where playersnhave incomplete information about their opponents’ payoffs. In a laboratory experiment we investigate whether players (a) learn the game they are playing, (b) learn to predict the behavior of their opponent, and (c)nlearn to play according to a Nash equilibrium of the repeated game. Ournresults show that the success in learning the opponent’s type depends on the characteristics of the true game. The learning success is much higher for games with pure strategy Nash equilibria than for games with a unique mixed strategy Nash equilibrium, and it is higher for games with symmetricnpure strategy Nash equilibria than for games with asymmetric equilibria. Moreover, subjects learn to predict the opponents’ behavior very well. However, they rarely play according to a Nash equilibrium and we observenno correlation between equilibrium play and learning about the game. |
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Matthias Benz, Bruno Frey, Towards a Constitutional Theory of Corporate Governance, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 304, 2006. (Working Paper)
The idea that there is a uniformly “optimal” governance structure for corporationsnfeatures prominently in current debates and policy proposals. In this paper, we propose andifferent, constitutional theory of corporate governance: the criterion for a good corporatengovernance structure is whether it is freely chosen by the shareholders. We illustrate ournapproach by comparing the constitutional rights of shareholders under US corporate law and Swiss corporate law. Moreover, we discuss the mandatory provisions that shareholders would likely include in corporate law at a constitutional stage, behind the veil of ignorance. |
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Matthias Benz, Was kann die Corporate Governance in der Schweiz von der Public Governance lernen?, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 305, 2006. (Working Paper)
Das vorliegende Papier schlägt eine neue Sicht auf Probleme der Corporate Governance vor. Es wird analysiert, wie der Unternehmenssektor bezüglich Governance vom politischen Bereich lernen kann. Demokratien haben einzigartige Institutionen der Führung und Kontrolle von Akteuren im öffentlichen Bereich geschaffen, welche neue Einsichten für die Governance von Unternehmen geben können. Drei Bereiche werden diskutiert und konkret auf den Kontext der Schweizer Corporate Governance angewendet: Gewaltenteilungnim Unternehmen, kompetitive Wahlen für Kernfunktionen in der Firma, und direktdemokratischenBeteiligungsrechte für Aktionäre. |
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Michael Kosfeld, Akira Okada, Arno Riedl, Institution Formation in Public Goods Games, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 299, 2006. (Working Paper)
Centralized sanctioning institutions are of utmost importance for overcomingnfree-riding tendencies and enforcing outcomes that maximize group welfare in socialndilemma situations. However, little is known about how such institutions come intonexistence. In this paper we investigate, both theoretically and experimentally, thenendogenous formation of institutions in a public goods game. Our theoretical analysisnshows that players may form sanctioning institutions in equilibrium, includingnthose where institutions govern only a subset of players. The experiment confirmsnthat institutions are formed frequently as well as that institution formation has anpositive impact on cooperation rates and group welfare. However, the data clearlynreveal that players are unwilling to implement institutions in which some playersnhave the opportunity to free ride. In sum, our results show that individuals arenwilling and able to create sanctioning institutions, but that the institution formationnprocess is guided by behavioral principles not taken into account by standard theory. |
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Aleksander Berentsen, Gabriele Camera, Christopher Waller, Money, Credit and Banking, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 219, 2006. (Working Paper)
In monetary models where agents are subject to trading shocksnthere is typically an ex-post inefficiency since some agents are holding idle balances while others are cash constrained. This problem creates a role for financial intermediaries, such as banks, who accept nominal deposits and make nominal loans. In general, financial intermediation improves the allocation. The gains in welfarencome from the payment of interest on deposits and not from relaxing borrowers’ liquidity constraints. We also demonstrate that when credit rationing occurs increasing the rate of inflation can benwelfare improving. |
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Rafael Lalive, Alejandra Cattaneo, Social Interactions and Schooling Decisions, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 298, 2006. (Working Paper)
The aim of this paper is to study whether schooling choices are affected by social interactions. Such social interactions may be important because children enjoy spending time with other children or parents learn from other parents about the ability of their children. Identificationnis based on a randomized intervention that grants a cash subsidy encouraging schoolnattendance among a sub-group of eligible children within small rural villages in Mexico. Results indicate that (i) the eligible children tend to attend school more frequently, (ii) but also the ineligible children acquire more schooling when the subsidy is introduced in their local village, (iii) social interactions are economically important, and (iv) they may arise due to changes innparents’ perception of their children’s ability. |
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Philipp C Wichardt, An Application of Global Games to Signalling Model, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 223, 2006. (Working Paper)
In a first attempt to apply the global games methodology tonsignalling games, Ewerhart and Wichardt (2004) analyse a beer-quiche type signalling game with additional imperfect information about the preferences of the receiver. Their approach allows them to dismiss the unreasonable pool-ning on quiche equilibrium. This paper revisits their example and discusses how an extension of the set of strategies for the sender affects the analysis. Interestingly, for an extended beer-quiche game, a unique equilibrium is selected while two equilibria are consistent with the Intuitive Criterionn(Cho and Kreps, 1987). Apart from the technical analysis, potential economic applications of the results, e.g. in a context of limit pricing and entry deterrence, are indicated. |
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Rafael Lalive, How do Extended Benefits affect Unemployment Duration? A Regression Discontinuity Approach, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 294, 2006. (Working Paper)
This paper studies a program that extends the maximum duration of unemployment benefits from 30 weeks to 209 weeks. Interestingly, this program is targeted to individuals aged 50nyears or older, living in certain eligible regions in Austria. In the evaluation, I use sharp discontinuities in treatment assignment at age 50 and at the border between eligible regions and control regions to identify the effect of extended benefits on unemployment duration. Resultsnindicate that the duration of job search is prolonged by at least .09 weeks per additional week of benefits among men, whereas unemployment duration increases by at least .32 weeks per additional week of benefits among women. The salient differences between men and women are consistent with the lower minimum age for early retirement applying to women. |
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Reto Foellmi, Josef Zweimüller, Mass Consumption, Exclusion, and Unemployment, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 296, 2006. (Working Paper)
We introduce non-homothetic preferences into a general equilibrium model of monopolistic competition and explore the impact of income inequality on the medium-run macroeconomic equilibrium. We find that (i) a sufficiently high extent of inequality divides the economy into mass consumption sectors (where firms charge low prices and hire manynworkers) and exclusive sectors (where firms charge high prices and hire few workers). (ii)nHigh inequality may lead to a situation of underemployment and that underemployment could be ”Keynesian” in the sense that it cannot be cured by downward-flexible real wages.n(iii) A redistribution of income from rich to poor (by means of progressive taxation) leadsnto higher employment and such a redistribution is Pareto-improving. (iv) An exogenous increase in (minimum) real wages have a cost effect (that lets firms reduce their employment) and a purchasing power effect (that creates an incentive for mass production and raises aggregate employment) with ambiguous net effects. (v) The economy may featurenmultiple equilibria where full-employment and unemployment equilibria co-exist. |
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Aleksander Berentsen, Cyril Monet, Monetary Policy in a Channel System, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 295, 2006. (Working Paper)
This paper studies the theoretical properties of a channel system of interestratencontrol in a dynamic general equilibrium model. Agents are subject to liquidity shocks which can be partially insured in a secured money market, ornat a standing facility operated by the central bank. We show that it is optimal to have a strictly positive interest rate corridor and that a shift of the corridor affects the money market rate one for one. Moreover, the central bank canntighten its policy without changing its policy rate by simply increasing the corridor symmetrically around the policy rate. |
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