Christoph Brunner, Jacob Goeree, Wise Crowds or Wise Minorities?, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 439, 2009. (Working Paper)
This paper reports results from social learning experiments where subjects choose between two options and each subject has a small chance of being perfectly informed about which option is correct. In treatment 'sequence', subjects observe the entire sequence of predecessors' choices while in treatment 'no-sequence' they only observe the number of times each option has been chosen. The theoretical predictions are that subjects follow their immediate predecessors in treatment sequence and follow the minority in treatment no-sequence (Callander and Hörner, 2009). The former prediction is borne out in the data, but subjects tend to follow the majority in treatment no-sequence. We observe substantial heterogeneity in levels of strategic thinking, as predicted by level-k and Cognitive Hierarchy. While these models reproduce some features of our data, their fit is poor because of the assumed best-response behavior. Allowing for some degree of 'trembling' improves the fit significantly, especially if subjects are aware that others tremble, as in logit-QRE. The 'noisy introspection' model proposed by Goeree and Holt (2004), which combines different levels of thinking with error-prone behavior, best describes the data. |
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Rainer Winkelmann, Copula-based bivariate binary response models, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 913, 2009. (Working Paper)
The bivariate probit model is frequently used for estimating the effect of an endogenous binary regressor on a binary outcome variable. This paper discusses simple modifications that maintain the probit assumption for the marginal distributions while introducing non-normal dependence among the two variables using copulas. Simulation results and evidence from two applications, one on the effect of insurance status on ambulatory expenditure and one on the effect of completing high school on subsequent unemployment, show that these modified bivariate probit models work well in practice, and that they provide a viable and simple alternative to the standard bivariate probit approach. |
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Andreas Kuhn, In the Eye of the Beholder: Subjective Inequality Measures and the Demand for Redistribution, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 425, 2009. (Working Paper)
This paper presents a simple conceptual framework intended for describing individuals'nsubjective evaluations of occupational wage inequality and their demand for redistribution. Most importantly, the framework explicitly allows for the distinction between individuals'nperceptions and their normative beliefs. I illustrate the framework using Swiss survey data from the International Social Survey Program. While most individuals accept quite large wage differentials across occupations, they also prefer a lower level of overall wage inequality than what they perceive to exist. Consistent with previous evidence, the empirical analysis also shows that financial self-interest, social norms about distributive justice and perceptions of how wages are determined in reality all simultaneously influence the demand for redistribution. Finally, I show that subjective inequality measures and the demand for redistribution are substantially significant predictors of both individuals' support for governmentnintervention and their party identification. This result provides indirect evidencenon the presumed link between perceptions and beliefs on the one hand and and politicalnoutcomes on the other hand. |
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Margit Osterloh, Bruno Frey, Research Governance in Academia: are there Alternatives to Academic Rankings?, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 423, 2009. (Working Paper)
Peer reviews and rankings today are the backbone of research governance, but recently came under scrutiny. They take explicitly or implicitly agency theory as a theoretical basis. The emerging psychological economics opens a new perspective. As scholarly research is a mainly curiosity driven endeavor, we include intrinsic motivation andnsupportive feedback by the peers as important determinants of scholarly behavior. We discuss whether a stronger emphasis on selection and socialization offers an alternative to the present regime of academic rankings. |
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Andreas Kuhn, Rafael Lalive, Josef Zweimüller, The Public Health Costs of Job Loss, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 424, 2009. (Working Paper)
"We study the short-run effect of involuntary job loss on comprehensive measures of publicnhealth costs. We focus on job loss induced by plant closure, thereby addressing the reversencausality problem of deteriorating health leading to job loss as job displacements due to plant closure are unlikely caused by workers' health status, but potentially have important effects on individual workers' health and associated public health costs. Our empirical analysis isnbased on a rich data set from Austria providing comprehensive information on various typesnof health care costs and day-by-day work history at the individual level. Our central findings are: (i) overall expenditures on medical treatments (hospitalizations, drug prescriptions, doctornvisits) are not strongly affected by job displacement; (ii) job loss increases expenditures for antidepressants and related drugs, as well as for hospitalizations due to mental health problems for men (but not for women); and (iii) sickness benefits strongly increase due to job loss." |
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Peter Zweifel, Maurus Rischatsch, Angelika Brändle, GPs' preferences: What price fee-for-service?, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 910, 2009. (Working Paper)
In mixed health care systems a crucial condition for the success of Managed Care (MC) plans is to win over a su±cient number of general practitioners (GPs) acting as gatekeepers. This contribution reports on GPs' willingness-to-accept (WTA) or compensation asked, respectively, for changing from conventional fee-for-service to MC practice. Some 175 Swiss GPs participated in discrete choice experiments which permit to put a money value on their status quo bias. Regardless of whether effects coding or dummy coding is used to measure status quo bias, Swiss GPs require at least 16 percent of their current average income to give up fee-for-service in favor of MC practice. |
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Pavlo R Blavatskyy, Wolfgang R Köhler, Lottery pricing under time pressure, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 422, 2009. (Working Paper)
This paper investigates how subjects determine minimum selling prices for lotteries. We design an experiment where subjects have at every moment an incentive to state their minimum selling price and to adjust the price if they believe that the price that they stated initially was not optimal. We observe frequent and sizeable price adjustments. We find that random pricing models can not explain the observed price patterns. We show that earlier prices contain information about future price adjustments. We propose a model of Stochastic Pricing that offers an intuitive explanation for these price adjustment patterns. |
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Maurus Rischatsch, Maria Trottmann, Physician dispensing and the choice between generic and brand-name drugs - Do margins affect choice?, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 911, 2009. (Working Paper)
Many politicians blame physician dispensing (PD) to increase health care expenditure and to undermine independence of drug prescription and income leading to a suboptimal medication. Therefore, PD is not allowed in most OECD countries. In Switzerland, PD is allowed in some regions depending on the density of pharmacies. This enables to investigate the difference in prescribing behavior between physician which gain income from prescribing a specific drug and their colleagues which prescribe the drug but do not sell it. Because the considered drugs are bioequivalent we focus on the economic consequence of PD. We analyze the prescribing behavior of Swiss physicians using cross-sectional data between 2005 and 2007 for three important agents. The results support our hypothesis that dispensing physicians have a higher probability of prescribing the drug with the (most likely) higher margin compared to non-dispensing physicians. Further, generic drugs are prescribed more often to patients with higher cost-sharing while patients' cost-sharing is less influential with PD. High-income patients face a much higher probability to receive the brand-name drug due to their lower marginal utility of income. Today's administered reimbursement prices for generics seem to be high enough to gain physicians for prescribing generics because of their high margins. |
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Maurus Rischatsch, Simulating WTP Values from Random-Coefficient Models, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 912, 2009. (Working Paper)
Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) designed to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) values are very popular in health economics. With increased computation power and advanced simulation techniques, random-coefficient models have gained an increasing importance in applied work as they allow for taste heterogeneity. This paper discusses the parametrical derivation of WTP values from estimated random-coefficient models and shows how these values can be simulated in cases where they do not have a known distribution. |
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Bruno Frey, A multiplicity of approaches to institutional analysis. Applications to the government and the arts, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 420, 2009. (Working Paper)
"Four types of “economics” relevant for institutional analysis are distinguished: Standard Neoclassical Economics; Socio-Economics or Social Economics; New Institutional Economics; and Psychological Economics (often misleadingly called Behavioural Economics). The paper argues that an extension of Neoclassical Economics with elements from other social sciences (including political science, sociology, psychology, law and anthropology) is fruitful to explain institutions because it allows us to maintain the strength ofnthat approach. Social Economics can play an important role helping to overcome the limitations of Neoclassics. However, it should become more concrete, integrate what is useful in Neoclassics, and should seriously engage in empirical research." |
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Nick Netzer, Florian Scheuer, Competitive Screening in Insurance Markets with Endogenous Wealth Heterogeneity, In: Working paper series / Socioeconomic Institute, No. No. 907, 2009. (Working Paper)
We examine equilibria in competitive insurance markets with adverse selection when wealth differences arise endogenously from unobservable savings or labor supply decisions. The endogeneity of wealth implies that high risk individuals may ceteris paribus exhibit the lower marginal willingness to pay for insurance than low risks, a phenomenon that we refer to as irregular-crossing preferences. In our model, both risk and patience (or productivity) are privately observable. In contrast to the models in the existing literature, where wealth heterogeneity is exogenously assumed, equilibria in our model no longer exhibit a monotone relation between risk and coverage. Individuals who purchase larger coverage are no longer higher risks, a phenomenon frequently observed in empirical studies. |
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Bruno Frey, Economists in the PITS?, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 406, 2009. (Working Paper)
Academic economists today are caught in a “Publication Impossibility Theorem System” or PITS. To further their careers, they are required to publish in A-journals, but for the vast majority this isnimpossible because there are few slots open in such journals. Such academic competition maybe useful to generate hard work, however, there may be serious negative consequences: the wrong output may be produced in an inefficient way, the wrong people may be selected,nand losers may react in a harmful way. This paper suggests several ways to remedy this situation. |
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Björn Bartling, Ernst Fehr, Michel Maréchal, Daniel Schunk, Egalitarianism and Competitiveness, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 415, 2009. (Working Paper)
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Bruno Frey, Alois Stutzer, Glück: Die ökonomische Analyse (Happiness: The Economic Analysis), In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 417, 2009. (Working Paper)
Gegenwärtig spielt sich in der Ökonomie eine beinahe revolutionäre Entwicklung ab. Die direkte empirische Erfassung des subjektiven Wohlbefindens fordert die traditionelle Ökonomie heraus, inspiriert sie zu neuen Einsichten und eröffnet neue Wege der wissenschaftlichen Forschung. Ansatz und Möglichkeiten der ökonomischen Analyse des Glücks werden aufgezeigt und anhand von zwei spezifischen Anwendungen illustriert. Der Zusammenhang zwischen Einkommen und Lebenszufriedenheit wird wesentlich durch Anspruchsniveaus, mit denen Lebensumstände beurteilt werden, bestimmt. Die Anspruchsniveaus bilden sich dabei über soziale Vergleiche und Gewöhnungsprozesse heraus. Der Lebenszufriedenheitsansatz wird als neue Methode zur Bewertung öffentlicher Güter präsentiert. Die kurze Diskussion der »Glückspolitik« aus einer konstitutionellen Perspektive legt eine vergleichende institutionelle Analyse des subjektiven Wohlbefindens nahe. Die Glücksrevolution in der Ökonomie steht erst am Anfang. Weitere Einsichten für die Suche nach den Institutionen, die den Menschen am besten erlauben, ihre Vorstellungen vom guten Leben zu verfolgen, sind in der Zukunft zu erwarten. |
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Bruno Frey, Paolo Pamini, Making world heritage truly global: the culture certificate scheme, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 419, 2009. (Working Paper)
Culture has attributes of a global public good that needs to be preserved for mankind as a whole. World Culture Certificates are proposed to efficiently preserve World Heritage. The community of nations has to agree on the Global Heritage List and how much each nation is to contribute to that purpose. Each World Heritage site conserved is acknowledged through the issuance of a tradable Certificate. Countries and private firms are induced to seek sites where financial resources can be spent most productively. This leads to an efficient allocation of resources to preserve World Heritage. |
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Jim Malley, Ulrich Woitek, Productivity shocks and aggregate cycles in an estimated endogenous growth model, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 416, 2009. (Working Paper)
Using a two-sector endogenous growth model, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate cycles in output, consumption, investment and hours. To contextualize our findings, we also assess whether the human capital model or the standard real business cycle (RBC) model better explains the observed variation in these aggregates. We find that while neither of the workhorse growth models uniformly dominates the other across all variables and forecast horizons, the two-sector model provides a far better fit to the data. Some other key results are first, that Hicks-neutral shocks explain a greater share of output and consumption variation at shorter-forecast horizons whereas human capital productivity innovations dominate at longer ones. Second, the combined explanatory power of the two technology shocks in the human capital model is greater than the Hicks-neutral shock in the RBC model in the medium- and long-term for output and consumption. Finally, the RBC model outperforms the two-sector model with respect to explaining the observed variation in investment and hours. |
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Bruno Frey, Punishment and beyond, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 418, 2009. (Working Paper)
This paper argues that the “Economics of Crime” concentrates too much on punishment as a policy to fight crime, which is unwise for several reasons. There are important instances in which punishment simply cannot reduce crime. Several feasible alternatives to punishment exist, such as offering positive incentives or handing out awards for law abiding behavior. These alternative approaches tend to create a positive sum environment. When people appreciate living in a society that is to a large extent law abiding, they are more motivated to observe the law. |
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Josef Zweimüller, Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, Rafael Lalive, Andreas Kuhn, Jean-Philipe Wuellrich, Oliver Ruf, Simon Büchi, Austrian Social Security Database, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 410, 2009. (Working Paper)
The Austrian Social Security Database (ASSD) is a matched firm-worker data set, which records the labor market history of almost 11 million individuals from January 1972 to April 2007. Moreover, more than 2.2 million firms can be identified. The individual labor market histories are described in the following dimensions: very detailed daily labor market states and yearly earnings at the firm-worker level, together with a limited set of demographic characteristics. Additionally the ASSD provides some firm related information, such as geographical location and industry affiliation. This paper is a short description of this huge data base and intended for people using this data in their own empirical work. |
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Helga Fehr-Duda, Adrian Bruhin, Thomas Epper, Renate Schubert, Rationality on the Rise: Why Relative Risk Aversion Increases with Stake Size, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 413, 2009. (Working Paper)
How does risk tolerance vary with stake size? This important question cannot be adequately answered if framing effects, nonlinear probability weighting, and heterogeneity of preference types are neglected. We show that the increase in relative risk aversion over gains cannot be captured by the curvature of the utility function. It is driven predominantly by a change in probability weighting of a majority group of individuals who exhibit more rational probability weighting at high stakes. Contrary to gains, noncoherent change in relative risk aversion is observed for losses. These results not onlynchallenge expected utility theory, but also prospect theory. |
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Adrian Bruhin, Helga Fehr-Duda, Thomas Epper, Risk and Rationality: Uncovering Heterogeneity in Probability Distortion, In: Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, No. No. 414, 2009. (Working Paper)
It has long been recognized that there is considerable heterogeneity in individual risk taking behavior but little is known about the distributionnof risk taking types. We present a parsimonious characterization of risk taking behavior by estimating a finite mixture regression model for three different experimental data sets, two Swiss and one Chinese, over a large number of real gains and losses. We find two distinct types of individuals: In all three data sets, the choices of roughly 80% of the subjects exhibitnsignificant deviations from linear probability weighting, consistent with prospect theory. 20% of the subjects weight probabilities near linearly and behave essentially as expected value maximizers. Moreover, individuals are cleanly assigned to one type with probabilities close to unity. The reliability and robustness of our classification suggest using a mix of preference theories in applied economic modeling. |
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