Wolfgang Buchholz, Josef Falkinger, Dirk Ruebbelke, Non-governmental public norm enforcement in large societies as a two-stage game of voluntary public good provision, In: Working Paper Series in Economics and Econometrics, No. 566, 2011. (Working Paper)
 
In small groups, norm enforcement is achieved through mutual punishment and reward. In large societies, norms are enforced by specialists such as government officials. However, not every public cause is overseen by states, for instance those organized at the international level. This paper shows how non-governmental norm enforcement can emerge as a decentralized equilibrium. As a first stage, individuals voluntarily contribute to a non-governmental agency that produces an incentive system. The second stage is the provision of a public good on the basis of private contributions. The incentive system punishes and rewards deviations from the norm for contributions by means of public approval or disapproval of behavior. It is shown that, even in large populations, nongovernmental norm enforcement can be supported in a non-cooperative equilibrium of utility-maximizing individuals. |
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Christian Hansen, Damian Kozbur, Sanjog Misra, Targeted undersmoothing, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 282, 2018. (Working Paper)
 
This paper proposes a post-model selection inference procedure, called targeted undersmoothing, designed to construct uniformly valid confidence sets for functionals of sparse high-dimensional models, including dense functionals that may depend on many or all elements of the high-dimensional parameter vector. The confidence sets are based on an initially selected model and two additional models which enlarge the initial model. By varying the enlargements of the initial model, one can also conduct sensitivity analysis of the strength of empirical conclusions to model selection mistakes in the initial model. We apply the procedure in two empirical examples: estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in a job training program and estimating profitability from an estimated mailing strategy in a marketing campaign. We also illustrate the procedure’s performance through simulation experiments. |
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Nick Netzer, Florian Scheuer, A game theoretic foundation of competitive equilibria with adverse selection, In: NBER working paper series, No. 18471, 2012. (Working Paper)
 
We construct a fully specified extensive form game that aptures competitive markets with adverse selection. In articular, it allows firms to offer any finite set of contracts, so that cross-subsidization is not ruled out. Moreover, firms can withdraw from the market after initial contract offers have been observed. We show that a subgame perfect equilibrium always exists and that, in fact, when withdrawal is costless, the set of subgame perfect equilibrium outcomes may correspond to the entire set of feasible contracts. We then focus on robust equilibria that exist both when withdrawal costs are zero and when they are arbitrarily small but strictly positive. We show that the Miyazaki-Wilson contracts are the unique robust equilibrium outcome of our game. This outcome is always constrained efficient and involves cross-subsidization from low to high risk agents that is increasing in the share of low risks in the population under weak conditions on risk preferences. |
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Mathias Hoffmann, Toshihiro Okubo, 'By a Silken Thread': regional banking integration and credit reallocation during Japan’s Lost Decade, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 102, 2021. (Working Paper)
 
A key benefit from banking integration is that it allows credit to be reallocated to regions with high credit demand. Using the natural experiment of Japan’s lost decade, we show that this reallocation channel mitigated the real effects from the bank liquidity shock in prefectures with many bank-dependent SMEs. To account for the potential endogeneity of banking integration, we exploit the fact that regional segmentation of banking markets in Japan goes back to the institutions set up for silk export finance in the late 19th century. Using silk as an instrument for modern-day regional banking integration, we illustrate how the bias of the OLS estimate can provide information about unobserved cross-regional heterogeneity in bank-firm matches when only aggregate regional data is available. Our results highlight that well-integrated banking markets are important and complementary to bond markets in limiting macroeconomic asymmetries in a monetary union, in particular during major financial crises. |
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Eva Ranehill, Frédéric-Guillaume Schneider, Roberto A. Weber, Growing groups, cooperation, and the rate of entry, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 103, 2013. (Working Paper)
 
We study the stability of voluntary cooperation in response to varying group growth rates. Using a laboratory public-good game, we construct a situation where increasing group size yields potential efficiency gains, but only with sustained cooperation. We then study the effect of exogenously varying growth rates on cooperation. Slow growth yields higher cooperation rates and welfare than fast growth, both for incumbents and entrants, which is consistent with optimistic self-reinforcing beliefs persisting under slower growth. Allowing incumbent group members to select growth rates also sustains high cooperation rates, but growth stalls at intermediate group sizes, leaving potential efficiency gains unrealized. |
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Holger Herz, Daniel Schunk, Christian Zehnder, How do judgmental overconfidence and overoptimism shape innovative activity?, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 106, 2013. (Working Paper)
 
Recent field evidence suggests a positive link between overconfidence and innovative activities. In this paper we argue that the connection between overconfidence and innovation is more complex than the previous literature suggests. In particular, we show theoretically and experimentally that different forms of overconfidence may have opposing effects on innovative activity. While overoptimism is positively associated with innovation, judgmental overconfidence is negatively linked to innovation. Our results indicate that future research is well advised to take into account that the relationship between innovation and overconfidence may crucially depend on what type of overconfidence is most prevalent in a particular context. |
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Olivier Ledoit, Michael Wolf, Spectrum estimation: a unified framework for covariance matrix estimation and PCA in large dimensions, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 105, 2013. (Working Paper)
 
Covariance matrix estimation and principal component analysis (PCA) are two cornerstones of multivariate analysis. Classic textbook solutions perform poorly when the dimension of the data is of a magnitude similar to the sample size, or even larger. In such settings, there is a common remedy for both statistical problems: nonlinear shrinkage of the eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix. The optimal nonlinear shrinkage formula depends on unknown population quantities and is thus not available. It is, however, possible to consistently estimate an oracle nonlinear shrinkage, which is motivated on asymptotic grounds. A key tool to this end is consistent estimation of the set of eigenvalues of the population covariance matrix (also known as the spectrum), an interesting and challenging problem in its own right. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that our methods have desirable finite-sample properties and outperform previous proposals. |
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Matthias Doepke, Fabrizio Zilibotti, Parenting with style: altruism and paternalism in intergenerational preference transmission, In: Department of Economics Working Paper Series, No. 104, 2012. (Working Paper)
 
We construct a theory of intergenerational preference transmission that rationalizes the choice between alternative parenting styles (related to Baumrind 1967). Parents maximize an objective function that combines Beckerian and paternalistic altruism towards children. They can affect their children’s choices via two channels: either by influencing their preferences or by imposing direct restrictions on their choice sets. Different parenting styles (authoritarian, authoritative, and permissive) emerge as equilibrium outcomes, and are affected both by parental preferences and by the socioeconomic environment. We consider two applications: patience and risk aversion. We argue that parenting styles may be important for explaining why different groups or societies develop different attitudes towards human capital formation, entrepreneurship, and innovation. |
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Andreas Hefti, Local contraction-stability and uniqueness, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 112, 2013. (Working Paper)
 
In this paper we analyze R&D collaboration networks in industries where firms are competitors in the product market. Firms’ benefits from collaborations arise by sharing knowledge about a cost-reducing technology. By forming collaborations, however, firms also change their own competitive position in the market as well as the overall market structure. We analyze incentives of firms to form R&D collaborations with other firms and the implications of these alliance decisions for the overall network structure. We provide a general characterization of both equilibrium networks and endogenous production choices, and compare it to the efficient network architecture. We also allow for firms to differ in their technological characteristics, investigate how this affects their propensity to collaborate and study the resulting network architecture. |
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Stefan Jönsson, Armin Schmutzler, All-pay auctions: Implementation and optimality, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 108, 2013. (Working Paper)
 
This paper analyzes how all-pay auctions with endogenous prizes can be used to provide effort incentives. We show that wide classes of effort distributions can be implemented as equilibrium outcomes of such games. We also ask how all-pay auctions have to be structured so as to induce high expected highest efforts without generating excessive wasteful efforts of losers. All-pay auctions with endogenous prizes can do better than all-pay auctions with fixed prizes in this respect, in particular, when the prize function is approximately linear. We use the results to compare patents and prizes as innovation incentives, and to explore promotion incentives in organizations. |
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Joseph P Romano, Michael Wolf, Testing for monotonicity in expected asset returns, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 17, 2013. (Working Paper)
 
Many postulated relations in finance imply that expected asset returns strictly increase in an underlying characteristic. To examine the validity of such a claim, one needs to take the entire range of the characteristic into account, as is done in the recent proposal of Patton and Timmermann (2010). But their test is only a test for the direction of monotonicity, since it requires the relation to be monotonic from the outset: either weakly decreasing under the null or strictly increasing under the alternative. When the relation is non-monotonic or weakly increasing, the test can break down and falsely ‘establish’ a strictly increasing relation with high probability. We offer some alternative tests that do not share this problem. The behavior of the various tests is illustrated via Monte Carlo studies. We also present empirical applications to real data. |
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Michael D König, Dynamic R&D networks, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 109, 2013. (Working Paper)
 
In this paper we analyze R&D collaboration networks in industries where firms are competitors in the product market. Firms’ benefits from collaborations arise by sharing knowledge about a cost-reducing technology. By forming collaborations, however, firms also change their own competitive position in the market as well as the overall market structure. We analyze incentives of firms to form R&D collaborations with other firms and the implications of these alliance decisions for the overall network structure. We provide a general characterization of both equilibrium networks and endogenous production choices, and compare it to the efficient network architecture. We also allow for firms to differ in their technological characteristics, investigate how this affects their propensity to collaborate and study the resulting network architecture. |
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Rafael Laliv, Simon Luechinger, Armin Schmutzler, Does supporting passenger railways reduce road traffic externalities?, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 110, 2013. (Working Paper)
 
Many governments subsidize regional rail service as an alternative to road traffic. This paper assesses whether increases in service frequency reduce road traffic externalities. We exploit differences in service frequency growth by procurement mode following a railway reform in Germany to address endogeneity of service growth. Increases in service frequency reduce the number of severe road traffic accidents, carbon monoxide, nitrogen monoxide, nitrogen dioxide pollution and infant mortality. Placebo regressions with sulfur dioxide and ozone yield no effect. Service frequency growth between 1994 and 2004 improves environmental quality by an amount that is worth approximately 28-40 % of total subsidies. An analysis of household behavior shows that the effects of railway services on outcome variables are driven by substitution from road to rail. |
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Ho Fai Chan, Bruno Frey, Jana Gallus, Benno Torgler, Does the John Bates Clark Medal boost subsequent productivity and citation success?, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 111, 2013. (Working Paper)
 
Despite the social importance of awards, they have been largely disregarded by academic research in economics. This paper investigates whether a specific, yet important, award in economics, the John Bates Clark Medal, raises recipients’ subsequent research activity and status compared to a synthetic control group of nonrecipient scholars with similar previous research performance. We find evidence of positive incentive and status effects that raise both productivity and citation levels. |
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Michelle S. Sovinsky, Steven Stern, Dynamic modelling of long-term care decisions, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 113, 2013. (Working Paper)
 
This paper describes and analyzes research on the dynamics of long-term care and suggests directions for the literature to make progress. We discuss sources and causes of dynamics including inertia/state dependence (confounded by unobserved heterogeneity); match-specific effects; and costs of changing caregivers. We comment on causes of dynamics including learning/human capital accumulation; burnout; and game-playing. We suggest how to deal with endogenous geography; dynamics in discrete and continuous choices; and equilibrium issues (multiple equilibria, dynamic equilibria). Next, we evaluate the advantages of different potential data sources (NLTCS, PSID, AHEAD/HRS, SHARE, ELSA) and identify first order data problems including noisy measures of wealth and family structure. We suggest some methods to handle econometric problems such as endogeneity (work, geography) and measurement error. Finally, we discuss potential policy implications of dynamics including the effect of dynamics on parameter estimates and direct policy implications of inertia (implications for family welfare, parent welfare, child welfare, and cost of government programs). |
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Robertas Zubrickas, The provision point mechanism with reward money, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 114, 2013. (Working Paper)
 
We modify the provision point mechanism by introducing reward money, which is distributed among the contributors in proportion to their contributions only when the provision point is not reached. In equilibrium, the provision point is always reached as competition for reward money and preference for the public good induce sufficient contributions. In environments without aggregate uncertainty, the mechanism not only ensures allocative efficiency but also distributional. At a specific level of reward money, there is a unique equilibrium, where all consumers contribute the same proportion of their private valuations. The advantages of the mechanism are also demonstrated for collective action problems. |
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Claudia Bernasconi, Similarity of income distributions and the extensive and intensive margin of bilateral trade flows, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 115, 2013. (Working Paper)
 
This paper investigates empirically how similarity of demand structures - approximated by similarity of income distributions - affects trade patterns along both the extensive and intensive margin. The idea that similarity of demand structures intensifies trade goes back to the well-known Linder hypothesis. Based on a sample of 102 countries, I find that bilateral trade volumes are increasing in the overlap of two countries income distributions. This effect is driven by both the extensive and intensive margin. I establish two novel measures of income similarity - the average income level of the overlap area and the range of incomes for which two distributions overlap - and document that both are important determinants of bilateral trade margins. My analysis shows that the positive relationship between similarity of income distributions and bilateral trade margins is present at the aggregate and disaggregate level of trade flows. |
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Zheng Song, Kjetil Storesletten, Yikai Wang, Fabrizio Zilibotti, Sharing high growth across generations: Pensions and demographic transition in China, In: UBS Center Working Paper Series, No. 1, 2012. (Working Paper)
 
Intergenerational inequality and old-age poverty are salient issues in contemporary China. China’s aging population threatens the fiscal sustainability of its pension system, a key vehicle for intergenerational redistribution. We analyze the positive and normative effects of alternative pension reforms, using a dynamic general equi- librium model that incorporates population dynamics and productivity growth. Although a reform is necessary, delaying its implementation implies large welfare gains for the (poorer) current generations, imposing only small costs on (richer) future generations. In contrast, a fully funded reform harms current generations, with small gains to future generations. High wage growth is key for these results. |
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Filippo Brutti, Philip Saure, Transmission of sovereign risk in the Euro crisis, In: Studienzentrum Gerzensee, No. 12.01, 2012. (Working Paper)
 
We assess the role of financial linkages in the transmission of sovereign risk in the Euro Crisis. Building on the narrative approach by Romer and Romer (1989), we use
financial news to identify structural shocks in a vector autoregressive model of daily sovereign CDS premia for eleven European countries. To estimate how these shocks
transmit across borders, we use data on cross-country bank exposures to sovereign debt. Our results indicate that exposure to Greek sovereign debt and the debt of
Greek banks constitute important transmission channels. All else being equal, the transmission rate to the country with the greatest exposure to Greece (1.22 percent of GDP) has been roughly 46 percent higher than the rate to the country with the least exposure (0.08 percent of GDP). |
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Andreas Kettemann, Signe Krogstrup, Portfolio balance effects of the SNB’s bond purchase program, In: Working paper series / Department of Economics, No. 116, 2013. (Working Paper)
 
This paper carries out an empirical investigation of the impact on bond spreads of the announcement, purchases and exit from the SNB’s bond purchase program in 2009-2010. We find evidence in favor of a narrowing yield spread of covered bonds as a result of the program. The effect materialized in the days following the announcement of the SNB’s intention to buy bonds issued by private sector borrowers, as markets learned that the SNB was buying covered bonds. The specification of the bond spreads used allows us to identify this effect as a discounted portfolio balance effect of the expected purchases, as distinct from policy signalling. In contrast, we find no evidence of a further effect of the actual purchases and subsequent sales on bond spreads. |
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