Contributions in Merlin

The paper investigates the effect of interest policy on price bubbles, trading behavior and portfolio choice in experimental stock markets. Anseries of experiments has 8 participants trade an asset over 15 periods. Alternatively, the participants can invest money in interest-bearing bonds. Treatment groups are subjected to an endogenous interest policy, while control groups experience a constant interest rate. Our stock markets are characterized by bubbles. While we observe a small positive impact of our interest policy on bubbles, the policy also strongly increases market volatility. On the other hand, concerning portfolio choice, we find evidencenfor value-driven (rational) investment behavior.

Rational Choice Theory is often criticized to indoctrinate students in a negative, which is supported by some laboratory experiments. But do students of Rational Choice Theory really behave more selfishly? This paper presents evidence from a natural decision on voluntary donation at the University of Zurich. The analysis of the very large panel data set reaches significant different results than previous studies: Rational Choice Theory does not indoctrinate students. However, there are good other reasons to criticize Rational Choice Theory. The paper argues that ideas from other social sciences should be imported to improve the theory. Three elements are presented which lead to new and different policy conclusions.

During the last two decades economists have made much progress in understandingnincentives, contracts and organisations. Yet, they constrained their attention to a very narrow and empirically questionable view of human motivation. The purpose of this paper is to show that this narrow view of human motivation may severely limit understanding the determinants and effects of incentives. Economists may fail to understand the levels and the changes in behaviour if they neglect motives like the desire to reciprocate or the desire to avoid social disapproval. We show that monetary incentives may backfire and reduce the performance of agents or their compliance with rules. In addition, these motives may generate very powerful incentives themselves.

The paper analyzes the process of market selection of investment strategies in an incomplete asset market. The payoffs of the as-sets depend on random factors described in terms of a discrete-time Markov process. Market participants make dynamic investment de-cisions based on their observations and time. We show that a trader distributing wealth across available assets according to the relative expected returns eventually accumulates the entire market wealth. The result obtains under the assumption that the trader's strategy is asymptotically distinct from the CAPM strategy (prescribing in-vestment in the market portfolio). This assumption turns out to be essentially necessary for the conclusion.

Over the past few years, there has been a steadily increasing interest on the part of economists in happiness research. We argue that reported subjective well-being is a satisfactory empirical approximation to individual utility and that happiness research is able to contribute important insights for economics. We report how the economic variables income, unemployment and inflation affect happiness as well as how institutional factors, in particular the type of democracy and the extent of government decentralization, systematically influence how satisfied individuals are with their life. We discuss some of the consequences for economic policy and for economic theory.

Fuer das Entstehen von Finanzintermediaeren existieren in der theoretischen Literatur zahlreiche ueberzeugende Begruendungen, die konsequent zu Ende gedacht allerdings auf einen Finanzintermediaer als natuerliches Monopol hinauslaufen. Beitraege, die Grenzen fuer das Wachstum von Finanzintermediaeren aufzeigen, sind indessen selten. Das vorliegende Papier baut auf einem Modell von Millon und Thakor auf. Die betrachteten Akteure sind die einzelnen Informationsagenten (z.B. Sachbearbeiter) des Finanzintermediaers, die einen gewissen Aufwand fuer das Sammeln von Informationen ueber ihre Kunden betreiben muessen. Zu einer freiwilligen und oekonomisch sinnvollen Zusammenarbeit zwischen ihnen kommt es nur dann, wenn sie im Rahmen ihrer Zusammenarbeit Informationsteilung betreiben koennen. Die wesentlichen neuen Ergebnisse des vorliegenden Beitrags sind, dass es unter heterogenen Informationsagenten nur zu Gruppenbildungen von recht homogenen (spezialisierten) Agenten kommen wird. Zugleich bestehen aber dynamische Anreizwirkungen, durch welche eben diese Homogenitaet innerhalb eines Finanzintermediaers bedroht wird. Die dynamischen Anreizwirkungen innerhalb eines Finanzintermediaers sind nicht nur fuer die begrenzte Groesse von Finanzintermediaeren verantwortlich, sondern koennen sogar den Keim fuer eine spaetere Aufspaltung oder Aufloesung von Finanzintermediaeren bilden.

Globalization is often seen to result in a smaller (Liliput) or larger (Leviathan) state. But future public activity will be more flexible. Persons have multiple identities. They can be citizens of sub- and supra-national jurisdictions, semi- and non-governmental organizations and private units, even profit-oriented firms. Such attachment may be temporary, multiple or partial. To actively choose strengthens loyalty and identification, which raises the willingness to pay for publicly supplied services (in the sense of quasi-voluntary taxation). On the supply side, Functional, Overlapping and Competing Jurisdictions (FOCJ) will develop. Such flexibility of the future European integration will make it successful.

Politik und öffentliches Bewusstsein werden zunehmend durch ökonomische Theorien und Handlungsvorschläge mitbestimmt. Kaum ein anderes erkenntnis- und handlungsleitendes Modell hat daher einen vergleichbaren Einfluss wie das Konzept des Homo Oeconomicus. Durch die Entwicklung experimenteller Methoden ist es möglich, die Annahmen dieses Konzepts unter kontrollierten Laborbedingungen mit dem tatsächlichen Handeln von Individuen zu vergleichen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden zunächst verschiedene Experimentalstudien diskutiert, die eindeutig belegen, daß der Homo Oeconomicus weitaus weniger universell ist, als gemeinhin angenommen. Die Mehrheit der Experimentalteilnehmer verhält sich reziprok, d.h. sie belohnt faires Verhalten und bestraft unfaires Verhalten, selbst wenn dies mit Kosten verbunden ist. Der Nachweis reziproken Verhaltens hat weitreichende Konsequenzen für die ökonomische Politikberatung.

In this paper we analyze the long-run dynamics of the market selection process among simple trading strategies in an incomplete asset market with endogenous prices. We identify a unique surviving financial trading strategy. Investors following this strategy asymptotically gather total market wealth. This result generalizes findings by Blume and Easley (1992) to any complete or incomplete asset market.

Given the USA`s refusal to ratify there is little hope for the Kyoto agreement on curbing CO2 emissions. This paper thus pledges for a national energy policy beyond Kyoto based on local external effects stemming from the combustion of fossil fuels. Due to varying external effects a national policy will differentiate energy taxes between fuels. Using Swiss estimates of external effects it is shown that a national policy would fulfill the Kyoto goal as a secondary benefit. Moreover, a nationally based fossil fuel policy would affect the scope for an international trade of CO2 emission rights, as a net-buyer of emission rights will loose from participating in such a trade.