Uschi Backes-Gellner, Holger Herz, Michael Kosfeld, Yvonne Oswald, Do Preferences and Biases predict Life Outcomes? Evidence from Education and Labor Market Entry Decisions, In: Swiss Leading House Economics of Education Working Paper, No. 144, 2018. (Working Paper)
 
Evidence suggests that acquiring human capital is related to better life outcomes, yet young peoples' decisions to invest in or stop acquiring human capital are still poorly understood. We investigate the role of time and reference-dependent preferences in such decisions. Using a data set that is unique in its combination of real-world observations on student outcomes and experimental data on economic preferences, we find that a low degree of long-run patience is a key determinant of dropping out of upper-secondary education. Further, for students who finish education we show that one month before termination of their program, present-biased students are less likely to have concrete continuation plans while loss averse students are more likely to have a definite job offer already. Our findings provide fresh evidence on students' decision-making about human capital acquisition and labor market transition with important implications for education and labor market policy. |
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Christian Rupietta, Harald Pfeifer, Uschi Backes-Gellner, Firms' knowledge acquisition during dual-track VET: Which sources are important for innovativeness?, In: Swiss Leading House "Economics of Education" Working Paper, No. 131, 2017. (Working Paper)
 
Researchers debate for more than 3 decades on the effect of vocational training on innovations. While some studies show a negative effect of vocational education that firms organize on its own, other studies show a positive effect for vocational education that is organized on a sectoral or national level such as in Germany or Switzerland. A characteristic of these vocational education and training (VET) systems is a high level of standardization and regulation. In fact many elements of VET are regulated in national law, training ordinances and curricula, but firms nevertheless less still have a high flexibility when it comes to the organization of workplace training. In this paper we analyze how firms organize their workplace training, which training methods they use and which training methods they apply jointly. As each training method e.g. training during work or external courses, transfers a specific set of skills and knowledge to apprentices, we analyze how firms use training methods to promote their innovation activity. Our results show that there is a large variety in the organization of workplace training. In sum firms make use of the flexibility to design workplace training that fits their needs best. We conclude with implications for the design of VET systems and firms. |
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Miró Feller, Ulrich Schäfer, Deceiving two masters: the effects of financial incentives and reputational concerns on reporting bias, In: AAA 2018 Management Accounting Section (MAS) Meeting, No. 2976423, 2017. (Working Paper)
 
We study managers’ decisions to bias financial reports if these reports are used by capital and labor markets to learn about firm value and managerial talent. If managers have private information on their financial and reputational incentives, we identify interactions in the capital and labor markets’ use of reports: The reception of reports in one market motivates reporting bias, which reduces value relevance and price efficiency in the other market. This interaction changes established results and has implications for financial reporting standard setters: We characterize environments where capital market efficiency can be improved by eliminating information on managerial talent from financial reports – even if this information is relevant for investors. This is particularly the case if there is high uncertainty about managers’ reputational concerns and if talent uncertainty represents a small part of the overall fundamental uncertainty. |
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Christoph Basten, Mike Mariathasan, How Banks Respond to Negative Interest Rates: Evidence from the Swiss Exemption Threshold, In: CESifo Working Papers, No. 6901, 2018. (Working Paper)
 
We analyze the effect of negative monetary policy rates on banks, using detailed supervisory information from Switzerland. For identification, we compare changes in the behavior of banks that had different fractions of their central bank reserves exempt from negative rates. More affected banks reduce costly reserves and bond financing while maintaining non-negative deposit rates and larger deposit ratios. Higher fee and interest income successfully compensates for squeezed liability margins, but credit and interest rate risk increase. Portfolio rebalancing implies relatively more lending, also compared to an earlier rate cut within positive territory, and risk-taking reduces regulatory capital cushions and liquidity. |
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Christoph Basten, Benjamin Guin, Cathérine Koch, How Do Banks and Households Manage Interest Rate Risk? Evidence from the Swiss Mortgage Market, In: CESifo Working Papers, No. 6649, 2017. (Working Paper)

We exploit a unique data set that features both un-intermediated mortgage requests and independent offers from multiple banks for each request. We show that households typically are not prudent risk managers but prioritize the minimization of current mortgage payments over the risk of possible hikes in future mortgage payments. We also provide evidence that banks do influence the contracted mortgage rate fixation periods, trading off their own exposure to interest rate risk against the borrowers’ affordability and credit risk. Our results challenge the implicit assumption of the existing mortgage choice literature whereby fixation periods are determined entirely by households. |
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Alena Miftakhova, Kenneth L Judd, Thomas Siegmund Lontzek, Karl Schmedders, Statistical approximation of high-dimensional climate models, In: Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper, No. 16-76, 2016. (Working Paper)
 
In many studies involving complex representation of the Earth's climate, the number of runs for the particular model is highly restricted and the designed set of input scenarios has to be reduced correspondingly. Furthermore, many integrated assessment models, in particular those focusing on intrinsic uncertainty in social decision-making, suffer from poor representations of the climate system ue to computational constraints.In this study, using emission scenarios as input and the temperature anomaly as a predicted response variable, we construct low-dimensional approximations of high-dimensional climate models, as represented by MAGICC. In order to extract as much explanatory power as possible from the high-dimensional climate models, we construct orthogonal emissions scenarios that carry minimum repetitive information. Our method is especially useful when there is pressure to keep the number of scenarios as low as possible. We demonstrate that temperature levels can be inferred immediately from the CO2 emissions data within a one-line model that performs very well on conventional scenarios. Furthermore, we provide a system of equations that is ready to be deployed in macroeconomic optimization models. Thus, our study enhances the methodology applied in the emulation of complex climate models and facilitates the use of more realistic climate representations in economic integrated assessment models. |
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Simone Bernardi, Markus Leippold, Harald Lohre, Second-Order Risk of Alternative Risk Parity Strategies, In: SSRN, No. 3090624, 2019. (Working Paper)
 
The concept of second-order risk operationalizes the estimation risk in portfolio construction induced by model uncertainty. We study its contribution to the realized volatility of recently developed risk parity strategies. For each strategy, we derive closed-form solutions for the second-order risk, subsequently illustrated in empirical analysis based on real market data. The results suggest a relation between the contribution of second-order risk and the sensitivity of a portfolio to single eigenvectors of the covariance matrix of assets' returns. Among the strategies considered, we find the principal risk parity strategy, that invests equally in each eigenvector underlying the variance-covariance matrix, to be immune to second-order risk. For the other strategies, second-order risk can be partially mitigated by means of statistical methods. |
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Johannes Meuer, Marlies Kluike, Uschi Backes-Gellner, Kerstin Pull, Using expatriates for adapting subsidiaries' employment modes to different market economies: a comparative analysis of US subsidiaries in Germany, the UK and Switzerland, In: UZH Business Working Paper Series, No. 372, 2018. (Working Paper)
 
Because the extent to which multinational companies (MNCs) benefit from foreign subsidiaries depends on how effectively MNCs manage their foreign subsidiaries' workforce, the international management literature has long focused on how MNCs transfer Human Resource Management (HRM) practices. However, the literature has only vaguely dealt with institutional differences between host and home countries, often simplifying these differences under the umbrella of institutional or cultural distance. This article investigates how MNCs use expatriates to adjust subsidiaries' employment modes to different market economies. We define employment modes as bundles of HRM and industrial relations (IR) practices implemented at the firm level and examine the employment modes of 76 subsidiaries of U.S. MNCs in a coordinated market economy (Germany), a hybrid market economy (Switzerland), and a liberal market economy (United Kingdom). Our results reveal substantial differences in the expatriation strategies of MNCs that depend not only on the international focus of the MNC but also on the differences in IR between the parent and subsidiary's environment. Our findings qualify the role of expatriates in adjusting subsidiaries' employment modes to different market economies and highlight the boundary conditions of integrating HRM with IR practices in the management of foreign subsidiaries. |
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Michel Habib, Fabrice Collard, Jean-Charles Rochet, The Reluctant Defaulter: A Tale of High Government Debt, In: Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper, No. 17-39, 2018. (Working Paper)

We seek to account for the very high levels of public debt recently reached in many OECD countries. We do so by assuming that governments do their utmost to stave off default, which occurs only when a government fails to muster the funds needed for debt service. This distinguishes our work from existing work on sovereign debt, which has assumed that governments weigh the costs of debt service against those of default. The debt ratios we compute are quite close to prevailing levels: our baseline case has debt-to-GDP ratio slightly above 80%. |
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Kjell G. Nyborg, Falko Fecht, Jörg Rocholl, Jiri Woschitz, Collateral, Central Bank Repos, and Systemic Arbitrage, In: Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, No. 16-66, 2016. (Working Paper)
 
Central banks are under increased scrutiny because of the rapid growth in, and composition of, their balance sheets. Therefore, understanding the processes that shape these balance sheets and their consequences is crucial. We contribute by studying an extensive dataset of banks’ liquidity uptake and pledged collateral in central bank repos. We document systemic arbitrage whereby banks funnel credit risk and low-quality collateral to the central bank. Weaker banks use lower quality collateral to demand disproportionately larger amounts of central bank money (liquidity). This holds both before and after the financial crisis and may contribute to financial fragility and fragmentation. |
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Michel Habib, Josef Falkinger, Principle or Opportunism: Discretion, Capital, and Incentives, In: Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper, No. 17-73, 2017. (Working Paper)

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Michel Habib, Josef Falkinger, Principle of Opportunism: Discretion, Capital, and Incentives, co-authored with Josef Falkinger, In: Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 17-73 , No. No. 17-73, . (Working Paper)

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Steffen Schuldenzucker, Sven Seuken, Stefano Battiston, Default ambiguity: credit default swaps create new systemic risks in financial networks, In: SSRN, No. 3043708, 2017. (Working Paper)
 
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Veronika Stolbova, Stefano Battiston, Mauro Napoletano, Andrea Roventini, Financialization of Europe: a comparative perspective, In: ISIGrowth, No. 22, 2017. (Working Paper)

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Steffen Schuldenzucker, Sven Seuken, Stefano Battiston, The Computational Complexity of Clearing Financial Networks with Credit Default Swaps, In: ArXiv.org, No. 1710.01578, 2017. (Working Paper)
 
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Veronika Stolbova, Irene Monasterolo, Stefano Battiston, A Financial Macro-Network Approach to Climate Policy Evaluation, In: SSRN, No. 3073191, 2017. (Working Paper)

Existing approaches to assess the economic impact of climate policies tend to limit their analysis to estimating the direct effect of a policy on the specific institutional sector targeted by the policy itself (e.g. banks, firms), thus underestimating its overall effect. In order to fill this gap, we develop a methodology, based on financial networks, to analyse the transmission throughout the economy of positive or negative shocks induced by the introduction of climate policies. In particular, this methodology allows to identify the feedback loops between the financial sector and the real economy through direct and indirect chains of financial exposures across multiple financial instruments (i.e. loans, equity, bonds, and life insurance). We illustrate the methodology on empirical data of the Euro Area. We focus on policy-induced shocks that affect directly either the banking sector or the non-financial firms, and we analyse the most relevant feedback loops that can reinforce the effect of such shocks. This analysis helps to understand the conditions for virtuous or vicious cycles to arise in the finance-climate nexus and to improve the assessment of the economic impact of climate policies. |
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Andreas Karpf, Antoine Mandel, Stefano Battiston, Price and Network Dynamics in the European Carbon Market, In: EconPapers, No. -, 2017. (Working Paper)

This paper presents an analysis of the European Emission Trading System as a transaction network. It is shown that, given the lack of a centralized market place, industrial actors had to resort to local connections and financial intermediaries to participate in the market. This gave rise to a hierarchical structure in the transaction network. To empirically relate networks statistics to market outcomes a PLS-PM modeling technique is introduced. It is shown that the asymmetries in the network induced market inefficiencies (e.g. increased bid-ask spread). Albeit the efficiency of the market has improved from the beginning of Phase II, the asymmetry persists, imposing unnecessary additional costs on agents and reducing the effectiveness of the market as a mitigation instrument. |
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Danilo Delpini, Stefano Battiston, Guido Caldarelli, Massimo Riccaboni, The Network of US Mutual Fund Investments: Diversification, Similarity and Fragility throughout the Global Financial Crisis, In: ArXiv.org, No. 1801.02205, 2018. (Working Paper)
 
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Michael Feldman, Frida Juldaschewa, Abraham Bernstein, Data Analytics on Online Labor Markets: Opportunities and Challenges, In: ArXiv.org, No. 1707.01790, 2017. (Working Paper)
 
The data-driven economy has led to a significant shortage of data scientists. To address this shortage, this study explores the prospects of outsourcing data analysis tasks to freelancers available on online labor markets (OLMs) by identifying the essential factors for this endeavor. Specifically, we explore the skills required from freelancers, collect information about the skills present on major OLMs, and identify the main hurdles for out-/crowd-sourcing data analysis. Adopting a sequential mixed-method approach, we interviewed 20 data scientists and subsequently surveyed 80 respondents from OLMs. Besides confirming the need for expected skills such as technical/mathematical capabilities, it also identifies less known ones such as domain understanding, an eye for aesthetic data visualization, good communication skills, and a natural understanding of the possibilities/limitations of data analysis in general. Finally, it elucidates obstacles for crowdsourcing like the communication overhead, knowledge gaps, quality assurance, and data confidentiality, which need to be mitigated. |
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Lucas Fuhrer, Liquidity in the Repo Market, In: Swiss National Bank Working Papers, No. 6, 2017. (Working Paper)

This paper examines liquidity in the Swiss franc repurchase (repo) market and assesses its determinants using a proprietary dataset ranging from 2006 to 2016. I find that repo market liquidity has a distinct intraday pattern, with low liquidity in early and late trading hours. Moreover, repo market liquidity is negatively affected by stress in the global financial system and the end of the minimum reserve requirement period if central bank reserves are scarce. Furthermore, I show that with excess central bank reserves in the financial system, quoted volumes in the interbank market get imbalanced towards more cash provider relative to cash taker quotes and the trading volume declines. By estimating liquidity in an interbank repo market and explaining its drivers, this paper contributes to the ongoing debate on repo market functioning. |
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