Fabian Mark, Why do countries grow? An international comparison of growth rates after 1950., University of Zurich, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Information Technology, 2011. (Bachelor's Thesis)
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Raphael Tischer, Wirtschaftliche Bewertungsstandards und ihr Einfluss auf die Preisentwicklung von verbrieften Assets, University of Zurich, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Information Technology, 2011. (Bachelor's Thesis)
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Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, Reto Foellmi, Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, Consumption paths under prospect utility in an optimal growth model, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 35 (3), 2011. (Journal Article)
This paper studies the Cass-Koopmans-Ramsey model of optimal economic growth in the presence of loss aversion and habit formation. The representative agent's preferences for consumption can be gradually varied between the standard constant intertemporal elasticity of substitution (CIES) case and Kahneman and Tversky's prospect utility. We find that the transitional dynamics of optimal consumption paths differ distinctly from the standard model, in particular consumption smoothing is more pronounced. We also show that prospect utility can cause the economy to remain in a steady state with low consumption and low capital. |
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Joachim Lammert, Christoph Watrin, Stefan Zeisberger, Management Guidance - Bevorzugen professionelle Kapitalmarktteilnehmer wirklich Punktprognosen?, Zeitschrift für Planung & Unternehmenssteuerung, Vol. 21, 2011. (Journal Article)
Mit Hilfe der Management Guidance wird durch kapitalmarktorientierte Unternehmen in unterschiedlicher Form über die voraussichtliche Entwicklung wesentlicher Geschäftszahlen berichtet. Vorliegende empirische Arbeiten gehen einheitlich davon aus, dass eine Punktprognose der erwarteten zukünftigen Kennzahlen anderen Formen vorzuziehen ist. Über die diesbezüglichen Präferenzen professioneller Kapitalmarktteilnehmer liegen bisher jedoch kaum gesicherte Erkenntnisse vor. Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht daher auf Basis einer Fragebogenstudie die entsprechenden Präferenzen dieser wichtigen Zielgruppe. An der Befragung nahmen insgesamt 123 Kapitalmarktteilnehmer teil, insb. Sell- und Buy-Side-Analysten sowie Asset Manager. Entgegen den bisherigen Annahmen wird eine Intervallprognose als hilfreicher angesehen als eine Punktschätzung. Weitergehende Analysen erlauben Einblicke in die Präferenzen einzelner Berufsgruppen. |
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Markus Leippold, Andreas Bloechlinger, A new goodness of fit test for event forecasting and its application to credit default, Management Science, Vol. 57 (3), 2011. (Journal Article)
We develop a new goodness-of-fit test for validating the performance of probability forecasts. Our test statistic is particularly powerful under sparseness and dependence in the observed data. To build our test statistic, we start from a formal definition of calibrated forecasts, which we operationalize by introducing two components. The first component tests the level of the estimated probabilities. The second component validates the shape, measuring the differentiation between high and low robability events. After constructing test statistics for both level and shape, we provide a global goodness-of-fit statistic, which is asymptotically x^2 distributed. In a simulation exercise, we find that our approach is correctly sized and more powerful than alternative statistics. In particular, our shape statistic is significantly more powerful than the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Under independence our global test has significantly greater power than the popular Hosmer and Lemeshow's x^2 test. Moreover, even under dependence our global test remains correctly sized and consistent. As a timely and important empirical application of our method, we study the validation of a forecasting model for credit default events. |
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Kaspar Staub, Frank J Rühli, Barry Bogin, Ulrich Woitek, Christian Pfister, Edouard Mallet's early and almost forgotten study of the average height of Genevan conscripts in 1835, Economics & Human Biology, Vol. 9 (4), 2011. (Journal Article)
In 1835, Edouard Mallet published a notable but today nearly forgotten study of the average height of Genevan conscripts. His individual data included 3 029 conscripts born between 1805 and 1814, examined and measured between 1826 and 1835. Mallet’s work was only the third auxological study to be based on a large sample of individual conscript data, the other two being those of Louis-René Villermé and Adolphe Quetelet, but as far as we know Mallet's was the first to note the law of normal distribution. Like Villermé
and Quetelet, Mallet explained urban/rural and international differences in average height strictly in terms of environmental and economic determinants. In the recent past, references to Mallet’s work have been rare,
and limited to citations of his computed averages. We postulate that Mallet and his study deserve greater
consideration for their contribution to the field of anthropometric history than they have yet received. |
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Peter Zweifel, Swiss experiment shows physicians, consumers want significant compensation to embrace coordinated care, Health Affairs, Vol. 30 (3), 2011. (Journal Article)
Policy makers in several industrial countries are seeking to limit the rise in health care cost growth by supporting coordinated or integrated care programs, which differ from most prevailing forms of medical organization in how physicians are paid and how they work in groups. However, as long as fee-for-service payment systems remain an option, general practitioners will be reluctant to embrace coordinated care because it would give them less autonomy in how they practice. A study in Switzerland indicates that general practitioners will require a pay increase of up to 40 percent before they are willing to accept coordinated care, and a similar study found that Swiss consumers wanted a substantial reduction in premiums to accept it. These findings suggest that provisions of US health care reform designed to encourage the growth of coordinated care—such as accountable care organizations and medical homes—may face a challenging future. |
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Urs Wenger, Storytelling - Mit Archetypen Geschichten erzählen, In: NZZ, 48, p. 75, 26 February 2011. (Newspaper Article)
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Martin Waldburger, AMAAIS - Accounting and Monitoring of AAI Services, In: AMAAIS - A4-Mesh Meeting. 2011. (Conference Presentation)
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Stephan Nüesch, Shared ownership versus third-party ownership, In: Wissenschaftliche Kommission Organisation (WK ORG). 2011-02-23. (Conference Presentation)
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Helmut Max Dietl, Markus Lang, Egon Franck, Tobias Duschl, A contest model of a professional sports league with two-sided markets, In: 35. Workshop der “Kommission Organisation”. 2011. (Conference Presentation)
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Dennis Schoeneborn, Andreas Scherer, Communication as constitutive of al Qaeda: An analysis of the organizational prerequisites to global terrorism, In: Verband der Hochschullehrer für Betriebswirtschaft - Kommission Organisation (VHB WK ORG). 2011. (Conference Presentation)
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Jan Wrampelmeyer, Ambiguity, illiquidity, and hedge funds: An analysis of recent developments and current research topics in post-crisis financial markets, University of Zurich, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Information Technology, 2011. (Dissertation)
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Stefania Lottanti von Mandach, Warum Frauen ihre Arbeitsstelle künden, In: NZZ, 42, p. 77, 19 February 2011. (Newspaper Article)
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Bruno Frey, Steuerzahler von morgen, In: Weltwoche, 7, p. 19, 17 February 2011. (Newspaper Article)
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Andreas Scherer, A Habermasian view on communication and its implications for organization studies, In: invited presentation at the 2nd Meeting of the Research Network „Organization as Communication“ (OaC) . 2011. (Conference Presentation)
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Till Moewes, Thomas Puschmann, Rainer Alt, Service-based Integration of IT-Innovations in Customer-Bank-Interaction, In: 10. Internationale Tagung für Wirtschaftsinformatik (WI), Zurich, 2011. (Conference or Workshop Paper published in Proceedings)
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Katharina Reinecke, Patrick Minder, Abraham Bernstein, MOCCA - A system that learns and recommends visual preferences based on cultural similarity, In: 16th International Conference on Intelligent User Interfaces (IUI), ACM, Lisbon, Portugal, 2011-02-13. (Conference or Workshop Paper published in Proceedings)
We demonstrate our culturally adaptive system MOCCA, which is able to automatically adapt its visual appearance to the user's national culture. Rather than only adapting to one nationality, MOCCA takes into account a person's current and previous countries of residences, and uses this information to calculate user-specific preferences. In addition, the system is able to learn new, and refine existing adaptation rules from users' manual modifications of the user interface based on a collaborative filtering mechanism, and from observing the user's interaction with the interface. |
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Burkhard Stiller, Economic and User Perspective of Inter-ISP Traffic Optimization, In: Future Internet Cluster Meeting. 2011. (Conference Presentation)
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Burkhard Stiller, SESERV ? Socio-economics CSA Interactions with EC D1 Projects, In: Future Networks 7th FP7 Concertation Meeting. 2011. (Conference Presentation)
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