Contributions in Merlin

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In this paper we evaluate the Swiss-Franc (CHF) exchange rate movements during the Years of 2003 till 2011. We give an insight in the Swiss Economy and the tasks of the SNB (Swiss-National-Bank). This will equip us with the instruments and goals of the SNB. We use the "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity" model in our theoretical part to conclude that movements were a reversal to the mean and are therefore economically reasonable. Still this result is a contrast to the economical assessment of the SNB. We study further the "Purchasing Power Parity" to show the contrast in results we get to those from before. We examine what the circumstances were for a correction. That implies taking a look at the various crises of the past years, such as the Global-Financial - and Euro Crisis. We conclude that all crises were the extension of just one core crisis. An interesting insight we also find is that the great volatility shocks that occurred during these crises had nearly no influence on our model. At last we critically access the SNB actions and give an outlook for the near future.

Sovereign debt crises in emerging markets are usually associated with liquidity and banking crises. The conventional view is that the domestic financial turmoil is the consequence of foreign retaliation, although there is no clear empirical evidence on "classic" default penalties. This paper emphasizes instead a direct link between sovereign defaults and liquidity crises, building on two natural assumptions: (i) government bonds represent a source of liquidity for the domestic private sector; (ii) the government cannot discriminate between domestic and foreign creditors in the event of default. In this context, external debt emerges even in the absence of classic penalties and government default is counter cyclical, triggers a liquidity crunch, and amplifies output volatility. In addition, a financial reform that involves a substitution of government bonds with privately-sourced liquidity instruments could backfire by restricting government's access to foreign credit.

This paper uses microdata to evaluate the impact on the steady-state unemployment rate of an increase in maximum benefit duration. We evaluate a policy change in Austria that extended maximum benefit duration and use this policy change to estimate the causal impact of benefit duration on labor market flows. We find that the policy change leads to a significant increase in the steady-state unemployment rate and, surprisingly, most of this increase is due to an increase in the inflow into rather than the outflow from unemployment.

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