Grzegorz Hałaj, Serafin Martinez-Jaramillo, Stefano Battiston, Financial stability through the lens of complex systems, Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 71, 2024. (Journal Article)
In this cover paper, we introduce a Special Issue (SI) published after the fourth edition of a series of financial stability conferences organized by Bank of Mexico, CEMLA, Bank of Canada, Zurich University and the Journal of Financial Stability in November 2021. Before providing our perspective on why the research papers included into the SI are of great relevance, we give a brief and personal overview of recent directions in financial stability research in general, esp., related to topics accentuated by the COVID-19 pandemic or post-pandemic economic and financial conditions and their complexity. Papers published in the SI cover four topics of research in the financial stability field, featuring some outstanding and innovative projects presented during the conference. The first topic is on interconnectedness and shock transmission in the financial system, diving deep into asset fire sales, interconnectedness of various segments of the financial system, in addition to banks, on the optimality of systemic risk capital buffers, and on how risks are priced in the interbank market network. The second one touches upon climate change risks looking at investors’ reactions to international climate policy developments, in particular on the Paris Agreement front and how to jointly model physical and transition risk in the banking system, including the important concept of double materiality. The third topic is represented by projects focused on policy analysis for systemic risk mitigation, specifically dealing with macroprudential policy instruments and crisis mitigation policies. Finally, research papers in the last topic on big data and market data focus on the innovative ways to explore the growing body of data sources, such as data collected by regulators, including credit register data, supervisory data and market data on financial transactions, to better understand sources and implications of systemic risk. |
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Henrik Cronqvist, Tomislav Ladika, Elisa Pazaj, Zacharias Sautner, Limited attention to detail in financial markets: Evidence from reduced-form and structural estimation, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 154, 2024. (Journal Article)
We show that firm valuations fell after a key expense became more visible in financial statements. FAS 123-R required firms to deduct option compensation costs from earnings, instead of disclosing them in footnotes. Firms that granted high option pay experienced earnings reductions, while fundamentals remained unchanged. These firms were more likely to miss earnings forecasts, and they experienced recommendation downgrades and valuation declines. Our findings suggest that market participants exhibited limited attention to option costs before FAS 123-R. As we reuse the FAS 123-R natural experiment, we show how one can address confounding channels by integrating reduced-form and structural estimation. |
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Lucia Alessi, Stefano Battiston, Virmantas Kvedaras, Over with carbon? Investors’ reaction to the Paris Agreement and the US withdrawal, Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 71, 2024. (Journal Article)
How financial investors may react to policy events related to sustainability and climate change mitigation in particular, is a key question with implications for sustainable finance and financial stability. We address this question by carrying out a multi-period difference-in-difference approach on a confidential database of securities holdings of the European Central Bank, and we provide evidence of several effects related to the Paris Agreement. In aggregate, investors reduced their participation in the equities of high-carbon firms in response to the agreement, and the trend reverted after the US’s announcement of withdrawal from the agreement. However, the reaction varies across categories and geographies of the securities holders, their ownership size, and the emissions of owned firms. In particular, transition risk has been taken up by less regulated financial institutions and the BRIC countries. Our results highlight that the redirection of global financial flows towards climate action requires clear and unanimous signals from the global community of policy makers. |
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Pejman Abedifar, Seyed Javad Kashizadeh, Steven Ongena, Flood, farms and credit: The role of branch banking in the era of climate change, Journal of Corporate Finance, Vol. 85, 2024. (Journal Article)
Using Iran’s unexpected flood in April 2019 as a natural experiment, we show that local branches bridge the time gap between the disaster and governmental aids by immediately increasing their lending for two months following the flood. Analyzing proprietary information on more than 53,000 farmers, we find that farmers with a stronger relationship with their branch - particularly younger and females - are more likely to receive a recovery loan. Our findings underscore that despite recent technological advancements, relationship-based branch banking is still important for agrarian societies during catastrophic events. |
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Antonio Moreno, Steven Ongena, Alexia Ventula Veghazy, Alexander Wagner, “Long GFC”? The global financial crisis, health care, and COVID‐19 deaths, Economic Inquiry, Vol. 62 (2), 2024. (Journal Article)
Do financial crises affect long‐term public health? To answer this question, we examined the relationship between the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the 2020–2022 COVID‐19 pandemic. Specifically, we examined the relationship between the financial losses derived from the GFC, and the health outcomes associated with the first wave of the pandemic. European countries that were more affected by the financial crisis had more deaths relative to coronavirus cases. An analogous relationship emerged across Spanish provinces and US states. Part of the transmission from finances to health outcomes appears to have occurred through cross‐sectional differences in health care facilities. |
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Chiara Colesanti Senni, Skand Goel, Adrian von Jagow, Economic and financial consequences of water risks: The case of hydropower, Ecological Economics, Vol. 218, 2024. (Journal Article)
Reduced water availability poses risks for many economic activities. This paper studies how water risks affect hydroelectricity generation in Europe and the US and whether these risks are priced in by financial markets. To this end, we build a novel dataset for the period 2015–2022, which combines plant-specific hydroelectricity generation with geo-specific water physical risks and equity returns. We find that water risks, measured using model-based aggregate water risk metrics as well as precipitation anomalies, are significantly associated with reduced electricity generation, although the effect disap- pears after two months. We then link the power plants in our sample to the equity returns of their owners to investigate whether financial markets adequately price water risks. Using a portfolio sorts approach, we find weak evidence of a negative risk pre- mium. Given the real negative effect of water risks on generation, we conclude that the lack of a positive risk premium amounts to mispricing of water risks by financial markets. |
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Andreas G F Hoepner, Ioannis Oikonomou, Zacharias Sautner, Laura T Starks, Xiao Y Zhou, ESG Shareholder Engagement and Downside Risk, Review of Finance, Vol. 28 (2), 2024. (Journal Article)
We show that engagement on environmental, social, and governance issues can benefit shareholders by reducing firms’ downside risks. We find that the risk reductions (measured using value at risk and lower partial moments) vary across engagement types and success rates. Engagement is most effective in lowering downside risk when addressing environmental topics (primarily climate change). Further, targets with large downside risk reductions exhibit a decrease in environmental incidents after the engagement. We estimate that the value at risk of engagement targets decreases by 9% of the standard deviation after successful engagements, relative to control firms. |
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Reint Gropp, Thomas Mosk, Steven Ongena, Ines Simac, Carlo Wix, Supranational Rules, National Discretion: Increasing versus Inflating Regulatory Bank Capital?, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 59 (2), 2024. (Journal Article)
We study how banks use "regulatory adjustments" to inflate their regulatory capital ratios and whether this depends on forbearance on the part of national authorities. Using the 2011 EBA capital exercise as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that banks substantially inflated their levels of regulatory capital via a reduction in regulatory adjustments — without a commensurate increase in book equity and without a reduction in bank risk. We document substantial heterogeneity in regulatory capital inflation across countries, suggesting that national authorities forbear their domestic banks to meet supranational requirements, with a focus on short-term economic considerations. |
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Delia Coculescu, Mederic Motte, Huyen Pham, Opinion dynamics in communities with major influencers and implicit social influence via mean-field approximation, Mathematics and Financial Economics, 2024. (Journal Article)
We study binary opinion formation in a large population where individuals are influenced by the opinions of other individuals. The population is characterised by the existence of (i) communities where individuals share some similar features, (ii) opinion leaders that may trigger unpredictable opinion shifts in the short term (iii) some degree of incomplete information in the observation of the individual or public opinion processes. In this setting, we study three different approximate mechanisms: common sampling approximation, independent sampling approximation, and, what will be our main focus in this paper, McKean–Vlasov (or mean-field) approximation. We show that all three approximations perform well in terms of different metrics that we introduce for measuring population level and individual level errors. In the presence of a common noise represented by the major influencers opinions processes, and despite the absence of idiosyncratic noises, we derive a propagation of chaos type result. For the particular case of a linear model and particular specifications of the major influencers opinion dynamics, we provide additional analysis, including long term behavior and fluctuations of the public opinion. The theoretical results are complemented by some concrete examples and numerical analysis, illustrating the formation of echo-chambers, the propagation of chaos, and phenomena such as snowball effect and social inertia. |
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Thomas Puschmann, Marine Huang-Sui, A taxonomy for decentralized finance, International Review of Financial Analysis, Vol. 92, 2024. (Journal Article)
Decentralized Finance (‘DeFi’) has gained tremendous momentum over the past three years by using novel approaches to disintermediating financial institutions in the provision of financial services. However, empirical research in this field is still rare, and a more comprehensive understanding of the domain is a missing component in academic research. This paper develops a taxonomy based on a comprehensive literature analysis to structure this emerging field systematically. The taxonomy includes three perspectives (strategy, organization, technology) and seven dimensions (blockchain, value proposition, token type, business process, price mechanism, protocol type, integration type) as well as thirty-six characteristics. The application of the taxonomy to 278 DeFi start-ups reveals that most of the DeFi start-ups focus on Ethereum (36.3%) and have a focus on analytics and automation (52%), while, surprisingly only a few incorporate decentralized governance approaches (3.3%), provide decentralized exchanges (14%) or integrate off-chain data. |
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Tobias Schimanski, Andrin Reding, Nico Reding, Julia Bingler, Mathias Kraus, Markus Leippold, Bridging the gap in ESG measurement: Using NLP to quantify environmental, social, and governance communication, Finance Research Letters, Vol. 61, 2024. (Journal Article)
Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria take a central role in fostering sustainable development in economies. This paper introduces a class of novel Natural Language Processing (NLP) models to assess corporate disclosures in the ESG subdomains. Using over 13.8 million texts from reports and news, specific E, S, and G models were pretrained. Additionally, three 2k datasets were developed to classify ESG-related texts. The models effectively explain variations in ESG ratings, showcasing a robust method for enhancing transparency and accuracy in evaluating corporate sustainability. This approach addresses the gap in precise, transparent ESG measurement, advancing sustainable development in economies. |
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Delia Coculescu, Gabriele Visentin, A default system with overspilling contagion, Frontiers of Mathematical Finance, Vol. 3 (1), 2024. (Journal Article)
Some dynamical contagion models for default risk have been proposed in the literature, where a system (composed of individual debtors) evolves as a Markov process conditionally on the observation of its stochastic environment, with interacting intensities. The Markovian assumption necessitates that the environment evolves autonomously and is not influenced by the transitions of the system. We extend this classical literature and allow a default system to have a contagious impact on its environment. With a certain probability, the transition of a debtor to the default state has an impact on the system's environment. This in turn affects the transition intensities of the other debtors inside the system. Therefore, in our framework, contagion can either be contained within the default system (i.e., direct contagion from a counterparty to another) or spill from the default system over its environment (indirect contagion). This type of model is of interest whenever one wants to capture within a model possible impacts of the defaults of a class of debtors on the more global economy and vice versa. |
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Jonathan L Payne, Adam Rebei, Yucheng Yang, Deep Learning for Search and Matching Models, In: SSRN, No. 4768566, 2024. (Working Paper)
We develop a new method for characterizing global solutions to search and matching models with aggregate shocks and heterogeneous agents. We formulate general equilibrium as a high dimensional partial differential equation (PDE) with the distribution as a state variable. Solving this problem has previously been intractable because the distribution impacts agent decisions through the matching mechanism rather than through aggregate prices. We overcome these challenges by developing a new deep learning algorithm with efficient sampling in a high dimensional state space. This allows us to study search markets that are not “block recursive”. In applications to labor search models, we show that while block recursivity may approximately hold under symmetric shocks, it fails to capture the dynamics when shocks have an asymmetric impact. Business cycles have a “cleansing” effect by amplifying positive assortative matching in recessions, and the magnitude of the countercyclicality depends on the bargaining process between workers and firms. |
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Thomas F Epper, Helga Fehr-Duda, Risk in Time: The Intertwined Nature of Risk Taking and Time Discounting, Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 22 (1), 2024. (Journal Article)
Standard economic models view risk taking and time discounting as two independent dimensions of decision making. However, mounting experimental evidence demonstrates striking parallels in patterns of risk taking and time discounting behavior and systematic interaction effects, which suggests that there may be common underlying forces driving these interactions. Here, we show that the inherent uncertainty associated with future prospects together with individuals’ proneness to probability weighting generates a unifying framework for explaining a large number of puzzling behavioral findings: delay-dependent risk tolerance, aversion to sequential resolution of uncertainty, preferences for the timing of the resolution of uncertainty, the differential discounting of risky and certain outcomes, hyperbolic discounting, subadditive discounting, and the order dependence of prospect valuation. Furthermore, all these phenomena can be accommodated by the same set of preference parameter values and plausible levels of inherent uncertainty. |
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Mahmoud Fatouh, Simone Giansante, Steven Ongena, Leverage ratio, risk-based capital requirements, and risk-taking in the United Kingdom, Financial markets, institutions & instruments, Vol. 33 (1), 2024. (Journal Article)
We assess the impact of the leverage ratio capital requirements on the risk-taking behaviour of banks both theoretically and empirically. Conceptually, introducing binding leverage ratio requirements into a regulatory framework with risk-based capital requirements induces banks to re-optimise, shifting from safer to riskier assets (higher asset risk). Yet, this shift would not be one-for-one due to risk weight differences, meaning the shift would be associated with a lower level of leverage (lower insolvency risk). The interaction of these two changes determines the impact on the aggregate level of risk. Empirically, we use a difference-in-differences setup to compare the behaviour of UK banks subject to the leverage ratio requirements (LR banks) to otherwise similar banks (non-LR banks). Our results show that LR banks did not increase asset risk, and slightly reduced leverage levels, compared to the control group after the introduction of leverage ratio in the UK. As expected, these two changes led to a lower aggregate level of risk. Emperical results indicate that credit default swap spreads on the 5-year subordinated debt of LR banks decreased relative to non-LR banks post leverage ratio introduction, suggesting the market viewed LR banks as less risky, especially during the COVID 19 stress. |
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Alin Marius Andrieş, Alexandra Maria Chiper, Steven Ongena, Nicu Sprincean, External wealth of nations and systemic risk, Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 70, 2024. (Journal Article)
External imbalances played a pivotal role leading to the global financial crisis and were an important cause of turmoil. While current account (flow) imbalances narrowed in the aftermath of the crisis, the net international investment position (NIIP) (stock) imbalances persisted. This study explores the implications of countries’ net foreign positions on systemic risk. Using a sample of 470 banks located in 49 advanced economies, emerging countries, and developing economies over 2000–2020, we find robust empirical evidence that banks can reduce their systemic risk exposure when the countries in which they are incorporated improve their NIIPs and maintain creditor status vis-à-vis the rest of the world. However, only the equity component of the NIIP is responsible for this outcome, whereas debt flows are not significant. Similarly, we find that the mitigating effect of an external balance sheet on systemic risk is derived from valuation gains rather than from the incremental net acquisition of assets or liabilities represented by the current account. Our findings are particularly relevant for policymakers seeking to improve banks’ resilience to adverse shocks and maintain financial stability. |
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Daniel Fasnacht, Christian Straube, Quantum computing as an enabling technology for the next business cycle, HMD Praxis der Wirtschaftsinformatik, Vol. 61 (1), 2024. (Journal Article)
We need more computing capacity for the next growth cycle, and computers with conventional transistor technology are reaching their limits. So new ideas are required. The quantum computer, which overcomes the binary system and is not based on silicon microchips, could be a solution. This technology will continue to develop exponentially and transform science, the economy, and society. Furthermore, the paradigm of quantum communication offers an entirely novel possibility of distributed computing by allowing quantum computers to be networked via quantum channels to intrinsically secure communication. This article explains how quantum computers exploit new phenomena that do not occur in classical physics. Along the four primary application areas identified (optimization, simulation, machine learning, and cryptography), we describe possible applications in various industries. Our critical appraisal presents the technical challenges that still hold the potential for quantum computing to complement traditional computing systems. Accordingly, small and mid-sized companies do not necessarily need to invest in quantum computers but in their use. Quantum as a service can be the first step for visionary leaders to get familiar with it and gain a competitive advantage early on. |
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Thomas Puschmann, Valentyn Khmarskyi, Green fintech: developing a research agenda, CSR, Sustainability, Ethics & Governance, 2024. (Journal Article)
Digitalization and sustainability have been the core drivers of transformation of the financial industry in recent years. In this context, green fintech plays a major role, which, however, is still an unexplored field in business, information systems and finance research. This paper conducts a systematic literature analysis and develops a research agenda based on a framework, which is derived from clustering 74 academic research papers. The framework consists of the four clusters strategy, organization, technology, and potentials along nine dimensions. The research agenda reveals that green fintech is still a very premature field of research. The analysis shows that areas like customer- and government-related services, insurance-oriented approaches and SDGs which focus on life on land and life below water are still rare and that most of the approaches focus on blockchain technology, while other financial technologies like artificial intelligence are still underrepresented. |
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Daniel Fasnacht, Virtuelle Konsumwelten –Trends mit Risiken: Gastkommentar, In: Neue Zürcher Zeitung, p. 21, 19 January 2024. (Newspaper Article)
Aus Asien kommt der Trend Social Commerce, der diverse Branchen und disruptive Technologien verbindet und so ein neues Kundenerlebnis schafft. Was bedeutet dieses Phänomen, und sind wir bereit dafür? |
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Julian Kölbel, Markus Leippold, Jordy Rillaerts, Qian Wang, Ask BERT: How Regulatory Disclosure of Transition and Physical Climate Risks affects the CDS Term Structure, Journal of Financial Econometrics, Vol. 22 (1), 2024. (Journal Article)
We use BERT, an AI-based algorithm for language understanding, to quantify regulatory climate risk disclosures and analyze their impact on the term structure in the credit default swap (CDS) market. Risk disclosures can either increase or decrease CDS spreads, depending on whether the disclosure reveals new risks or reduces uncertainty. Training BERT to differentiate between transition and physical climate risks, we find that disclosing transition risks increases CDS spreads after the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015, while disclosing physical risks decreases the spreads. In addition, we also find that the election of Trump had a negative impact on CDS spreads for firms exposed to transition risk. These impacts are consistent with theoretical predictions and economically and statistically significant. |
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