Contributions published at Finance (Alexander Wagner)

It may be a "digital boiler room", but Robinhood mostly won 2020. Does a reckoning await?

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The first Global Climate Strike on March 15, 2019, represented a historical turning point in climate activism. We investigate the cross-section of stock price reactions to this event for a large sample of European firms. The strike's unanticipated success caused a decrease in the stock prices of carbon-intensive firms. The effect appears to be driven by the increased public attention to climate activism. Furthermore, after the first Global Climate Strike financial analysts downgraded their longer-term earnings forecasts on carbon-intensive firms.

Die vorliegende Bachelorarbeit untersuchte, mittels einer Online-Marktumfrage, die Sichtweisen der Unternehmen und institutionellen Investoren auf Themen wie Corporate Governance, Corporate Social Responsibility und der Einfluss von Covid-19 in der Schweiz. Ausserdem wurden die Resultate mit anderen Umfragen verglichen und interpretiert. Folgende Schlussfolgerungen können gezogen werden: Die Risikomanagementsysteme und die Strategien der Unternehmen erwiesen sich als pandemietauglich, jedoch wurde das Bedürfnis einer offenen Kommunikation grösser. In Bezug auf CSR-Themen möchten die Aktionäre, dass die Verwaltungsräte mehr Verantwortung übernehmen und durch diese verstärkte Sichtweise auf solche Themen sollten ebenfalls die Vergütungssysteme überdenkt werden.

Aktionäre erfahren sowohl in der Politik als auch in den Medien eine hohe Aufmerksamkeit. In der Schweiz gipfelte diese Aufmerksamkeit in der Abstimmung zur eidgenössischen Volksinitiative “gegen die Abzockerei“ im Jahr 2013. Auch auf die in jüngster Zeit grosse Vielzahl von Akquisitionen durch chinesische Investoren in Europa wird speziell ein Augenmerk gerichtet. Die vorliegende Bachelorarbeit liefert eine fundierte Analyse der Aktionärsstruktur über einen Zeitraum von 2008 bis 2018. Zu den untersuchten Eigenschaften zählen unter anderem die Konzentration des Aktionariats, die Herkunftsländer der Investoren sowie die Existenz von Grossaktionären.

The effect of ESG performance on financial performance is of great interest for researchers and investors. While the existing literature has established a positive aggregate effect of ESG on financial performance, this paper analyzes which specific ESG variables are material for the most relevant financial performance variables, and how these relationships affect valuation. Based on a large panel dataset of financial data and ESG ratings, the positive aggregate effect of ESG is confirmed and the material ESG variables for different industries are identified. Furthermore, the impact of the material ESG variables on stock valuation is demonstrated by integrating the results into a valuation model.

We argue that incentives to take equity risk (”equity incentives”) only partially capture incentives to take asset risk (“asset incentives”). This is because leverage, while central to the theory of risk-shifting, is not explicitly considered by equity incentives. Employing measures of asset incentives that account for leverage, we find that asset risk-taking incentives can be large compared to incentives to increase firm value. Stock holdings can induce substantial risk-taking incentives, contrary to the assumption that only stock options drive risk-taking. Finally, asset incentives help explain asset risk-taking of U.S. financial institutions before the 2007/08 crisis.

This thesis measured the impact of President Donald Trump’s tweets about Covid-19 from January 1st to April 30th, 2020 on financial markets. These tweets included comments made by President Trump about Covid-19 on trading days when markets were open. President Trump’s impact was measured by aggregating average volume and returns of all S&P 500 stocks over 120-minute event windows surrounding each tweet. The dataset was split to consider actions taken by the Federal Reserve on April 9th which increased investor activity. My work found two things. First, President Trump’s tweets had a significant impact on markets in terms of average returns. However, these findings are mainly due to peak returns following huge market recoveries. Second, President Trump had a significant impact on average market volume over the event horizon – indicating investor disagreement and refuting previous literature of a representative trader with a single market view.

Das Virus fordert nicht nur die Medizin heraus: Auch die Geisteswissenschaften stehen vor neuen Fragen. Linguisten und Psychologen, Theologen und Juristen setzen sich mit den Pandemie-Folgen auseinander. Wir stellen die spannendsten Projekte vor.

Etliche Länder haben in der Corona-Krise Wetten auf Kurseinbrüche verboten – zum Nachteil der Anleger.

Market reactions to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) provide new insights into how real shocks and financial policies drive firm value. Initially, internationally oriented firms, especially those more exposed to trade with China, underperformed. As the virus spread to Europe and the United States, corporate debt and cash holdings emerged as important value drivers, relevant even after the Fed intervened in the bond market. The content and tone of conference calls mirror this development over time. Overall, the results illustrate how anticipated real effects from the health crisis, a rare disaster, were amplified through financial channels.

Managers use item 7 (MD&A) of 10-Q and K filings to express their diagnosis of future plans, which can't be described in the form of numerical data. This paper examines the tone of sentiment of this qualitative data section of financial statements, by conducting a textual analysis. The tone of sentiment is used as an indicator for the predictive power of the S&P 500 financial statements on CAPM adjusted excess stock returns. SEC's EDGAR moved obligatory financial disclosures from the physical to the digital era, making such information available for everybody. This thesis finds that measuring tone could predict returns.

Proponents of the concept of "value reporting" emphasize the idea that it may be in firms’ interest to provide investors and other stakeholders with a holistic picture of their value generation activities. The basic idea is that by explaining more clearly how and why value is created in the company, especially by considering the interplay of financial and non-financial value drivers, management will enhance its own understanding of the value generation process. This, in turn, enables management to make better operating decisions in the future. Using a 10-year panel of Swiss firms, we document that firms with better value reporting quality deliver better future operating performance and obtain greater economic value added. They also exhibit higher valuation ratios. These results hold when controlling for industry-year fixed effects as well as with two instrumental variables approaches. These findings also shed light on the potential value generation benefits of "integrated reporting".

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University researchers studied the behavior of different investors in the pandemic.

This thesis assesses the use and performance of multiple valuation on a sample of 79 Swiss fairness opinions. Results indicate that trading multiples are more popular than transaction multiples, with EBITDA being the best practice ratio, independent of size, industry, or approach employed. For relatively small companies, or companies with unique product portfolios or business models, applying multiples is problematic. Both approaches produce results significantly below the offering and close to market prices. Analysis suggests the development of macroeconomic conditions to have a severe influence on transaction multiples. Evaluation of relative performances proves DCF as more reliable than multiple valuation.

Die Boni der Schweizer Konzernchefs schocken die Öffentlichkeit nicht mehr. Von allgemeiner Mässigung ist aber keine Rede. Die Auswirkungen von Corona werden die Löhne dieses Jahr in Schach halten.